GOP's 50-Year Hold On Utah Slipping As Mormons Turn On Trump
SALT LAKE CITY (AP) - The Republican Party's five-decade reassurance that Utah voters will deliver their state for the GOP presidential candidate has cracked this year.
Republicans down the ballot in Utah, like Gov. Gary Herbert and U.S. Rep. Mia Love, are still favored to win their races. But Donald Trump's broad unpopularity in the conservative state has cast the presidential race as a tossup going into Tuesday's election.
Trump's bombast, past marriages, shifting political views and inflammatory comments about women, minorities and more have soured voters in Utah, where many belong to the Mormon faith and scrutinize manners and morals as heavily as policy.
That conservative angst has fractured the reliably Republican vote. Some are drifting across the aisle to Hillary Clinton's camp. Far more are searching for another option, with many settling on independent candidate Evan McMullin, a Mormon and former CIA operative.
McMullin has surged in Utah polls and has a chance to capture the state's six electoral votes from Trump or draw off enough conservative votes to allow Hillary Clinton to scrape out a win.
Utah GOP leaders say they have faith that most Republicans will fall in line and vote for Trump, recognizing that only he or Clinton could realistically win.
Trump remains ahead of Clinton, 37 percent to 31 percent, with McMullin in third at 24 percent, according to a Monmouth University poll of 402 Utah likely voters conducted last week. It showed McMullin is doing well among Mormon voters, barely trailing Trump. That poll has a margin of sampling error of plus or minus 4.9 percentage points.
Trump has a narrow lead over McMullin, 33 percent to 28 percent, with Clinton trailing with 24 percent, according to a Y2 Analytics poll of 500 Utah likely voters conducted last week. That poll has a margin of sampling error of plus or minus 4.4 percentage points.
McMullin, 40, is on the ballot in only 11 states. However, his unlikely rise to prominence this election season has become a top story line in Utah. He's holding a final campaign rally Monday night in Provo and will spend election night in Salt Lake City.
Among Utah's disaffected Republicans is Herbert, who offered tepid Trump support before jumping ship.
The governor won't say who he's voting for and instead says he's focusing on his own race. He overcame a bruising primary election earlier this year but is expected to win another four years over challenger Mike Weinholtz, a wealthy Democrat and first-time candidate.
Weinholtz has attacked Herbert for a recording that emerged where he offered to meet with wealthy donors in exchange for large fundraising checks. He's also hammered the governor for supporting Utah's push to take over public lands controlled by the U.S. government.
Herbert has defended the donations, saying nothing illegal or unethical occurred and that he must fundraise because he's not wealthy like Weinholtz, who relies mostly on his own cash. He's instead pointed to Utah's strong economy and low unemployment rate as reasons to keep him in the top office.
If Herbert wins, he'd become Utah's second-longest serving governor when he leaves office in January 2021, having served 11 years and about five months. Only Democrat Calvin Rampton clocked 12 full years of three terms, ending in 1977.
A much closer Republican re-election test comes in Utah's 4th District, where Love, a first-term congresswoman, faces a rematch with Democrat Doug Owens.
Love is a popular with Utah Republicans and is considered a rising star by the GOP, but she's running in a district that was held by a Democrat until 2014. As she's worked to keep her seat in the politically-mixed district, she's been careful to avoid endorsing Trump and eventually called for him to withdraw from the presidential nomination.
In Utah's three other congressional districts, incumbent Republican Reps. Rob Bishop, Jason Chaffetz and Chris Stewart expected to successfully defend their seats from Democratic challengers, while U.S. Sen. Mike Lee is expected to win his first re-election bid. Lee, a Republican, is being challenged by Misty Snow, 31-year-old grocery store clerk running on a platform of progressive and millennial issues in hopes of becoming the first openly transgender woman elected in Utah.
Voters on Tuesday will also pick winners for 90 state legislative races, most dominated by Republicans, and elect mayors in Salt Lake County and the newly-formed city of Millcreek, a Salt Lake City suburb.
Copyright 2016 The Associated Press.
