Saturday mostly dry, with wildfire smoke returning to Pittsburgh area overnight

Sunshine is back in the Pittsburgh area on Saturday afternoon, but wildfire smoke returns overnight, potentially dampening the potential for severe weather on Monday. 

Highs on Saturday will hit in the low 80s. The area didn't see the 80s yesterday, with the daily high only hitting 79. 

Storms possible early next week

Severe weather and storms can't be ruled out for Monday and maybe Tuesday as well. The region's severe weather risk is going to be on the lower side, coming from a warm front passing by during the late afternoon hours. 

At this point, it doesn't appear that storms will be widespread, but there will be sufficient shear to cause rotation. This is a key ingredient when it comes to tornado development. 

To our west, instability will be greater for places in Ohio, Indiana and Michigan. These states should expect widespread rain and storms to be possible with a high risk of strong winds, large hail and tornadoes.

Monday will be an odd severe weather day because there will be a lot of people out there that won't see a drop of rain. Where the warm front sets up is where the focus of storms will be. If you aren't along that line as it stalls through the day, not moving very much, then you are probably going to be dry. 

Storms will be flying to the southeast along the boundary, so conditions could change rapidly. Besides tornadoes, large hail, destructive straight-line winds, and flooding will be possible on Monday.

Wildfire smoke returns overnight

The one x-factor for Monday's storm chance is a return of wildfire smoke. Another thick plume of smoke is set to arrive Saturday night, sticking around through Tuesday's cold front passage. By Sunday morning, you'll be able to see the haze from the smoke. While air quality will be impacted, it won't be as bad as last time, when the area saw hazardous levels of air pollution. 

These plumes are enough to impact both high temperatures and atmospheric instability. In the past, this has been enough to kill what looks to be enough potential energy to fuel storms. Basically, smoke oftentimes is enough to kill severe weather chances. We will see if model data begins to adjust storm chances down due to the impact of the smoke.