Early look at Philadelphia's winter forecast and what a "Super El Niño" could mean for snow

Hey Philly, what can you expect this winter? For starters, this is an El Niño year, but not just any El Niño year. This is a "Super El Niño" year, and it's getting stronger as we head into winter.

So, you're probably wondering what this "Super El Niño" is and how it will affect us here in Philly.

El Niño meaning

• What: It's a global weather pattern that develops every three to seven years and lasts nine to 12 months or more. A "Super El Niño" is a stronger version, and this one is the strongest ever recorded.
• Where: Pacific Ocean
• How: The trade winds near the equator weaken, allowing warm water to be pushed east, piling up along South America and spreading up the West Coast of California.

• Tiny details: This equatorial water must be more than 2 degrees Celsius (3.6 degrees Fahrenheit) above normal to qualify as an El Niño pattern.
• Extra info: On Earth, oceans hold more heat than the land, and a massive amount of ocean heat is released into the atmosphere during an El Niño. This raises global temperatures, which can lead to more flooding, drought and famine.
• U.S. Weather: During an El Niño winter, the jet stream is pushed farther south. Cooler, wetter weather is expected from California across the southern U.S. Warmer, drier weather is expected across the northern tier of states.
• Nor'easters: The pattern favors the development of more coastal storms and nor'easters.
• Big snow: The Sierra Nevada and central-southern Rockies are favored for the most snow this winter.
• Here in Philadelphia: Warmer and wetter weather is expected.

Hold on, before you pull out the flip-flops, it's important to point out that warmer and wetter than normal does not mean we won't see snow or cold. It simply means the average temperature for December, January and February will be above normal. The amount of precipitation will also be above normal.

Yes, we will have a few cold snaps and chances for snow. Likely more rain than usual.

Remember, all it takes is a brief blast of cold air slipping down from Canada that collides with a large nor'easter over Philly, dumping an entire season's snow in one storm.

It's happened before, so keep the snow shovels handy just in case.

El Niño falls into four categories: weak, moderate, strong, and very strong (super).

This year is the 29th El Niño since 1950. Only a handful of those have been a "Super El Niño."

During most moderate-to-strong El Niño winters, we received average-to-above-average snowfall. The record snowfall of 78.7 inches in 2009-2010 was during a moderate El Niño.

That's not the case for "Super El Niño" years. Here's how much snow we received in Philadelphia. FYI: Our average yearly snowfall is 23.1 inches.

• 1982-1983: (37.9 inches)
• 1991-1992: (4.7 inches)
• 1997-1998: (0.8 inches)
• 2015-2016: (27.5 inches)
• 2026-2027: (TBD) This is the strongest El Niño ever recorded.

In 1877-1878, there was a suspected "Super El Niño" that caused global famine, resulting in the deaths of 50 million people — 3-4% of the Earth's population at the time.

During the non-El Niño years, we experience one of the following. Either a La Niña year, where warm water is pushed east toward Australia and Indonesia, allowing cold water to surface along South America. Or a neutral year, meaning neither El Niño nor La Niña is present.