Taxes, affordability remain at center of New Jersey governor's race as expert says turnout will be key
In just four weeks, voters in New Jersey will choose the state's next governor. By most polls, Democrat Mikie Sherrill and Republican Jack Ciattarelli are running a tight race to succeed the term-limited Phil Murphy, a Democrat.
A poll from Stockton University released on Friday shows how voters are looking at the candidates and the race. One of the biggest takeaways: New Jerseyans do not like the state of the economy.
"Two-thirds of voters are dissatisfied with the current state of the economy," said Alyssa Maurice with the Hughes Center for Public Policy at Stockton University. "And as many as 39% said they or their family's financial situation has gotten worse."
Conversely, only 31% said they were either somewhat or very satisfied with the state of the economy.
Economic issues have long been at the center of this race. According to the Stockton poll, 25% of respondents checked taxes as their most important issue, followed by affordability or cost of living (12%) and the economy in general (9%). And experts say where voters lay the blame could be pivotal in this race.
Each candidate has targeted the opposing party on economic issues. Ciattarelli has sought to blame Democrats in Trenton, including Murphy, while Sherrill has tied the GOP nominee to President Trump and congressional Republicans.
But Maurice says the Stockton poll could give some clues into where voters may be leaning ahead of the Nov. 4 election.
"Voters were a little less pessimistic about the trajectory of New Jersey than they are the country," Maurice said.
According to the poll, 58% of respondents felt the nation was heading in the wrong direction (33% said right direction). Conversely, 48% thought New Jersey was headed in the wrong direction (30% marked the right direction).
Mr. Trump also polled behind Murphy in the findings.
"Trump is a far more divisive figure in New Jersey than Murphy. Fifty-six percent disapprove of Trump's job performance, whereas a plurality of 42% disapprove of Murphy," Maurice said. "We saw that Murphy's rating might not be stellar, but he did fare better than Trump. And so, tying Trump to Ciattarelli's campaign may be more of a drag on his campaign than tying Murphy to Sherrill."
Stockton's poll did not measure a head-to-head matchup between the candidates, but it did look at how voters view them. Ciattarelli (32% favorable, 38% unfavorable) and Sherrill (34% favorable, 35% unfavorable) got similar favorability ratings. But one thing that stood out was that nearly a quarter of respondents were "unfamiliar" with both Ciattarelli (24%) and Sherrill (25%).
Maurice says this could show an opportunity for both candidates to reach more voters with less than a month until Election Day. But she also says it could be that many voters may not be paying as close attention to the race in an election year that doesn't feature any federal races in the state. That, she says, will make turnout crucial.
"Really, I think it's all about finding the message that energizes their voters," Maurice said. "Because it's an off-year election, the challenge is making sure voters show up."
The Stockton poll also asked voters for their thoughts on political violence in the country, possible artificial intelligence regulation, free speech and more.
It also comes just before Sherrill and Ciattarelli return to the debate stage on Wednesday, with an event planned at Rutgers University. Maurice said she still expects economic issues, taxes and affordability to headline the questions candidates will face. But she also pointed to rising utility costs in the state as something that will likely become a focal point.
"Almost half of voters said that they have had to adjust their budget to afford their utility bills," Maurice said. "And so that's another element to this affordability issue that we'll continue to see."
Residents who spoke to CBS News Philadelphia on Tuesday in Haddonfield said affordability is their main concern as well, including one person who said he was considering moving to Pennsylvania "if something doesn't happen soon" when it comes to property taxes.
The candidates are scheduled to debate Wednesday at 7 p.m. at the New Brunswick Performing Arts Center. It will air on WABC-TV in the New York City area and northern and eastern parts of New Jersey, and on 6ABC in Philadelphia and areas of western and southern New Jersey. Both of those stations will also stream the debate on their websites.
New Jerseyans have until Oct. 14 to register to vote in the November election.
