In Pennsylvania's 1st District, incumbent Brian Fitzpatrick faces tough reelection fight: "All hands on deck"

Pennsylvania has once again become the battleground to watch in a major election. In this year's midterms, the commonwealth is host to four congressional races — for seats currently held by Republicans — that could determine which party controls the U.S. House.

Pennsylvania's 1st Congressional District, encompassing all of Bucks County and part of Montgomery County, was thought to be Democrats' longest shot of the four. Now, experts say the race between Republican Brian Fitzpatrick, the incumbent, and Democrat Bob Harvie has tightened.

"For Republicans, this is all hands on deck," John Kennedy, professor of political science at West Chester University, said. "This is the Democrats' best opportunity since 2018 to try to take this seat."

But Kennedy notes the seat will by no means be an easy pickup. 

Fitzpatrick has represented the politically purple region for nearly a decade, with deep family ties to the area. He, more than other Republican candidates in contested races, has kept President Trump at arm's length. Two years ago, Fitzpatrick won reelection by nearly 13 percentage points, in a district Mr. Trump narrowly lost to Kamala Harris.

"It makes him a very formidable incumbent," Kennedy said. "One [who is] very difficult to defeat."

But like other Republicans, experts say Fitzpatrick will have to deal with a poor national environment for the GOP. Mr. Trump's approval rating was down to 37% in Pennsylvania in an October Quinnipiac University poll. The same data showed Pennsylvania voters favored Democrats on a generic ballot, 54% to 39%. Kennedy also pointed to millions of dollars being pumped into this race on both sides, saying each party sees the seat as in play.

Earlier this month, the Cook Political Report moved its rating of this race from "Likely Republican" down to "Lean Republican," still giving the edge to Fitzpatrick.

But the GOP, which has controlled Congress for the last two years, is also facing poor marks on the economy. High prices remain the number one concern for most voters who spoke to CBS Philadelphia, regardless of who they're backing.

"It's the economy," Clint Pagano of Springtown said. "I think that's a hot button for a lot of people, frankly."

"Prices. Cost of gas, food, and just about everything," Jane Gable of Riegelsville said.

"The prices are too high. Gas is too high. Everything's too high," Andrew London said.

True to its politically purple nature, we spoke with many voters who said they're backing each of the candidates. But it did appear the national environment was weighing on at least some. Two people who said they backed Fitzpatrick in the past are at least considering voting in the other direction this year.

"I was a Republican, pretty Republican. But I think I'm leaning more toward Democrat," London said.

"I'm leaning toward the Democrats. And I generally don't lean that way," Andy Huberegsen of Springtown said. "I think we need something to kind of counterbalance what's going on in the White House right now."

Another challenge Kennedy pointed out could be the presence of the governor's race at the top of this year's ticket. Democratic incumbent Josh Shapiro led Republican State Treasurer Stacy Garrity by a wide margin in the October Quinnipiac poll, 59% to 34%.

Kennedy said that to win, Fitzpatrick may have to entice some voters who also plan to back Shapiro in November.

"He's going to need a significant number of ticket-splitters in order to survive this election season," Kennedy said.