Will the Sun Set on Canadian Solar's Market Strategy?

• The Company: Canadian Solar, a seller of solar-cell and photovoltaic-module products for residential and commercial applications, principally in Europe.
• The Filing: Form F-3 Registration Statement filed on July 14 with the SEC.
• The Finding: Canadian Solar said Monday that it shipped about 47 megawatts of solar module products during the second-quarter ended June 30, up from its previous forecast of 45 megawatts. A strong demand equation, however, requires additional funding to finance expansion capacity, which will pressure operating margins.

For strategic purposes, Canadian Solar is shifting to a more vertically integrated production structure. Moving solar-wafer and solar-cell assembly in-house -- combined with long-term (and diversified) supply high-grade silicon/ingot supply agreements and silicon-reclamation initiatives -- does generate raw material cost savings. Proper management of the supply chain, however, holds the company captive to a higher fixed cost structure, too.

Predictably, the company -- like many of its peers -- is shifting product mix to favor a standard solar module design.

In 2007, approximately 96 percent of Canadian Solar's module product sales consisted of standard solar module sales, up from 77 percent in 2005.

Canadian Solar expects to deliver more than 500 megawatts of solar modules in fiscal 2009. On the back of strong demand, Canadian Solar is looking to boost in-house solar module production to about 800 megawatts annually, two-times the current capacity.

The Board of Directors has authorized an increase in capital expenses beyond the originally budgeted $92 million (for anticipated expansion capacity of its assembly lines in 2008). In addition, more than $633.8 million in purchase obligations for silicon raw materials and production equipment comes due by 2011, according to its 2007 annual report filed with the SEC on June 3, 2008. To secure high-purity silicon feedstock, solar companies must pay forward silicon costs before receipt, which further strains working capital needs.

Canadian Solar is not operating in a vacuum. The peer landscape is getting crowded, with new entrants springing up in China and alternative manufacturing templates (such as thin film photovoltaic competitors SunTech and First Solar) seeking out financing and customers, too.

An unseen event horizon -- or a convergence of such unknowns -- could easily derail demand, leaving Canadian Solar and its solar peers with too much capacity.

If the ongoing credit crisis in the financial markets continues to ripple outward, major contracts could be canceled due to financing issues.

Demand for on-grid solar applications has been driven by favorable tax incentives in Spain and Germany. Reductions in solar subsidies could force all the players in the industry food chain, including photovoltaic module makers, to aggressively cut prices or face loosing market share (and excess capacity).

After peaking at $3.97 per watt in 2006, the average selling prices for standard solar modules was $3.75 per watt in 2007.

The Question: By abandoning custom-design products, does Canadian Solar -- or any of its polysilicon peers pursuing similar business strategies -- risk being the "memory chip" commodity players in the solar game?