Will it snow on Christmas? Maps show weather forecasts for 2024 holiday
Many Americans may be dreaming of a white Christmas, but few will end up walking in a winter wonderland this year. Above-average temperatures are in the weather forecast for much of the continental U.S. for Christmas week of 2024. But a few areas have a better chance of snow than others.
Where is most likely to get snow on Christmas?
Except for some far northern and mountain areas, most of the country will be seeing temperatures above the freezing point of 32 degrees Fahrenheit. Staying above the freezing mark means any precipitation that falls will be rain instead of snow.
The definition of a "white Christmas" by the National Weather Service is having at least 1 inch of snow on the ground on Christmas morning.
This year, the only parts of the U.S. getting a white Christmas will be in the Rocky Mountains, along the northern U.S. border with Canada and parts of the Northeast. That includes some northern areas of North Dakota, Minnesota, Wisconsin, Michigan, New York, Massachusetts, Vermont, New Hampshire and Maine.
The areas staying below the freezing point, allowing at least 1 inch of snow to accumulate on the ground, are seen in the map below.
The National Weather Service noted that this is officially the first white Christmas for New York City since 2009, with 1 inch of snow measured in Central Park. The snow fell Tuesday morning, with Wednesday bringing slightly warmer temperatures. It was also the first white Christmas in years for Boston.
Map of snow forecast for Christmas Day 2024
On Wednesday, Christmas Day, parts of the Rocky Mountains will see light snowfall thanks to the moisture feeding into the region from the atmospheric river in the West. Luckily, a break in atmospheric rivers is in store for Christmas before the next round returns on Thursday.
Moisture from the Gulf of Mexico is also pushing into the Mississippi Valley region to bring light rain showers throughout the day.
Temperatures are forecast to be well above the freezing mark most places, which means precipitation will mainly be rain. Messy travel on Christmas could be found along Interstate 40, I-55, I-40, I-70, I-80 and I-90.
For Thursday, more showers and storms are in store for parts of the South, and some of those storms could potentially become severe in the later hours of the day. Damaging winds and even the potential for tornadoes threaten the deep South as thunderstorms arrive.
In the West, the next atmospheric river moves in, bringing another blast of winter weather and coastal rain and flooding issues from Northern California into Washington state.
Are white Christmases getting rarer?
The National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration has tracked snowfall data across the U.S. for years, and says there have been some notable changes over the past four decades, "consistent with the reality of long-term warming."
When comparing the average probability of Christmas snowfall from 1981-2010 to the period from 1991-2020, NOAA says, "More areas experienced decreases in their chances of a white Christmas than experienced increases."
The NOAA map below shows areas with the highest historic probability of seeing a white Christmas. Areas shaded in light blue have a higher than average chance, while the northern and mountain locations marked in white have historically had snow on Christmas at least 90% of the time.
You can explore an interactive version of the map on NOAA's website here.
