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Where do Trump and Clinton stand going into the general election?

Clinton leads in new poll

By Sarah Dutton, Jennifer De Pinto, Fred Backus and Anthony Salvanto

The 2016 Campaign After Both Conventions

Hillary Clinton has received a small bump up in support after the Democratic convention and has now pulled ahead of Donald Trump. 46 percent of voters nationwide say they'll vote for Clinton in November, while 39 percent say they'll back Trump. The race was tied last week after the Republican convention. Clinton led by a similar margin in June.

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Clinton got a four-point bounce after her party's convention, compared to a two-point bump for Trump after his convention.

When compared to previous Democratic presidential nominees, Clinton's bounce is similar to the one President Obama got in 2012 and 2008.

When leaners are included - voters who are undecided when initially asked their vote preference but lean toward a candidate - Clinton leads Trump by six points.

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Clinton also retains her lead when the Libertarian candidate Gary Johnson is added.

Voters who back a candidate remain firm in their support. Nine in 10 Clinton and Trump voters say their minds are made up about their candidate.

Candidate Qualities

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Hillary Clinton has received a significant boost in how she's viewed by registered voters on a number of candidate qualities following last week's Democratic convention. Majorities now view Clinton as being prepared for the job, having the right temperament, and being a strong leader. Registered voters were divided in their opinion of Hillary Clinton on these measures a week ago. Hillary Clinton has also received a five-point increase in the percentage of voters who view her as honest and trustworthy: up from 29 percent a week ago to 34 percent today. Sixty percent of voters think she is dishonest, but that is down from 67 percent a week ago.

Most voters don't think Donald Trump has the right temperament to be president or is prepared for the job, and they are divided as to whether or not he is a strong leader. Thirty-six percent of registered voters view Donald Trump as honest and trustworthy, while 59 percent do not - similar to Hillary Clinton.

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Neither candidate is viewed as an agent of change. Fifty-four percent of registered voters don't think Mrs. Clinton will make the changes the country needs, while 56 percent feel similarly about Donald Trump.

Views on this are highly partisan: most Democrats think Hillary Clinton will make the changes the country needs, while most Republicans feel the same way about Donald Trump. Most independents don't have faith in either candidate to bring about needed change.

A Female Nominee

Hillary Clinton made history during the Democratic convention by becoming the first woman major party nominee for President of the United States. Nearly two-thirds of registered voters say that regardless of who they are voting for, they are glad that a woman is a major party nominee. Still, voter preference does make a difference: while over eight in 10 Clinton voters are glad that a woman has been nominated by a major party, this is true of less than half of Trump voters.

Gender makes little difference in this sentiment. Among registered voters overall, 61 percent of men and 65 percent of women are glad there is a woman nominee for president.

Opinion of the Candidates

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In the wake of the Democratic convention, positive views of Hillary Clinton have risen five points among registered voters, from 31 percent a week ago to 36 percent today. Unfavorable views of Hillary Clinton have dropped six points: from 56 percent to 50 percent.

Over half of voters continue to hold an unfavorable opinion of Donald Trump. Although Trump received a slight bounce in his favorable rating after the Republican Convention, now just 31 percent view him favorably - similar to what was recorded before his party's convention.

Tim Kaine

Voters' reactions to Clinton's choice of Sen. Tim Kaine haven't changed much since before the Democratic convention. A third of voters overall, and half of Democratic voters, are glad he was selected as Clinton's running mate.

Positive impressions of VP nominee Tim Kaine have risen after the Democratic National Convention, but still just 17 percent have a favorable view of him, and nearly as many, 14 percent, are unfavorable. Two thirds have not yet formed an opinion. Among Democratic voters, 31 percent are favorable.

Sanders, His Supporters and the DNC

Earlier this month, two-thirds of those who backed Bernie Sanders during the primaries said they would vote for Clinton in November. After the Democratic convention, and a motion by Sanders himself to have Clinton selected as the nominee, her support among Sanders voters has risen to 73 percent.

Sanders continues to be viewed more positively than negatively by voters nationwide. Forty-four percent of have a favorable view of him, and that rises to 67 percent among Democratic voters.

The Democratic National Committee is charged with remaining neutral about the Democratic candidates, but a recent email leak raises questions as to whether that was the case. Six in ten voters, and even more Sanders supporters, think the Democratic National Committee favored Hillary Clinton over Bernie Sanders during the primary campaign.

Democratic Convention Impact

Seventy-seven percent of voters say they watched the Democratic convention, and among them 52 percent say the convention made them think better of Clinton. In a CBS News Poll released after the Republican convention, a similar percentage said that convention made them think better of Trump.

Nearly half of voters who watched said the Democratic convention made them think better of the Democratic Party - slightly more than said the same about the Republican Party last week.

And after the convention, 63 percent of Democratic voters say the Democratic Party is united, up from 58 percent earlier in July. Those who voted for Sanders during the primaries have a different view: just 43 percent of them see the party as united.

Thirty-eight percent of voters now say they are enthusiastic about voting, up from 27 percent before the conventions. Clinton and Trump supporters are similarly enthusiastic about voting.

Who's Supporting Whom?

After the conventions, Clinton has expanded her lead with women, but she still trails Trump by a large margin among men. Clinton continues to get the support of more than eight in 10 Democrats and has seen an uptick in support among liberals. The race among independents is even; Trump led among this group last week.

Trump maintains his advantage among whites without a college degree, while Clinton has an edge among whites with a degree.

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This poll was conducted by telephone July 29-31, 2016 among a random sample of 1,393 adults nationwide, including 1,131 registered voters. Data collection was conducted on behalf of CBS News by SSRS of Media, PA. Phone numbers were dialed from samples of both standard land-line and cell phones.

The poll employed a random digit dial methodology. For the landline sample, a respondent was randomly selected from all adults in the household. For the cell sample, interviews were conducted with the person who answered the phone.

Interviews were conducted in English and Spanish using live interviewers.

The data have been weighted to reflect U.S. Census figures on demographic variables.

The error due to sampling for results based on the entire sample could be plus or minus three percentage points. The margin of error for the sample of registered voters is three points. The error for subgroups may be higher and is available by request. The margin of error includes the effects of standard weighting procedures which enlarge sampling error slightly.

This poll release conforms to the Standards of Disclosure of the National Council on Public Polls.


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