When could mortgage rates realistically drop below 6% again? Experts weigh in

While borrowing costs remain elevated overall, mortgage rates are falling. While 30-year fixed mortgage rates started the year at just over 7%, they have dropped slightly over the last several months and are now sitting at about 6.75% on average. The downward trend is a welcome one for borrowers who have been hoping for more affordable loan costs, like those seen at the height of the pandemic. Average rates dropped to under 3% in 2021, the lowest recorded rate to date. 

Mortgage experts say it could be a long time before we see rates fall that low again, but recent rates are still lower than they were in recent decades. Still, many homebuyers and refinancers would be happy to see them fall below 6%. Is that realistic, though? Here's what the experts say would need to happen and when we might expect to see rates that low.

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When could mortgage rates fall below 6%? Experts weigh in

Mortgage rates are cooling, but economic signals will likely need to change before we see sub-6% rates. 

"For mortgage rates to come down below 6%, unemployment is going to need to be much higher, or a geopolitical crisis, much larger than we've seen in recent years, will have to occur," says Aaron Gordon, a branch manager at Guild Mortgage Company.

As a general rule, bad economic news makes mortgage rates fall, and vice versa, Gordon notes. 

"It would take really bad news to drive them into the 5s, which is historically rare as it is," Gordon says.

Sarah DeFlorio, vice president of mortgage banking at William Raveis Mortgage, notes that the bond market may provide a better barometer for where mortgage rates may be headed than Federal policy moves. 

"We will need to see a sustained and meaningful period of lower bond yields, probably at or below 3.5%, giving banks the confidence to lower their rates," DeFlorio says.

And, while the experts we spoke with agree that mortgage rates will eventually fall below 6%, it likely won't happen anytime soon. 

"My hope is that we will start 2026 with the average 30-year fixed in the low 6s, which means adjustable-rate mortgage options are out there in the mid to low 5s," says DeFlorio. "With so many mortgage holders protecting their low monthly payments, once we see a sustained period of lower rates, it is almost inevitable that there will be a welcome flood of inventory to the market."

"I can see rates going below 6% mid to end of 2026," says Jeremy Schachter, branch manager at Fairway Independent Mortgage Corporation. "We have been in this high-rate standstill environment for well over four years. Sellers don't want to give up their ultra-low rates, and buyers don't have as many options to purchase a home due to limited inventory. Once rates go below 6%, more homes will be on the market for buyers to buy and sellers to sell."

Outside of unusual economic news or a change in Fed policy direction, buyers shouldn't get their hopes up for 5% mortgage rates, at least for the next year or two, Gordon says. 

"The economic status quo will keep mortgage rates elevated. Low unemployment, inflation hovering where it's been the last year and the economy staying as resilient as it has makes rates below 6% very unlikely," says Gordon.

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Advantages of purchasing a home now

There are still some advantages to buying a home now, despite today's higher average mortgage rates, including:

• Potentially lower sales prices: Home prices have been dropping in some markets across the nation, so it could be a smart time to buy. If you wait for rates to drop over time, though, those lower rates will likely drive more buyers into the market, meaning that you could be facing more competition and ultimately pay a higher price than you would by buying now.
• Build equity now: Purchasing a home now will help you build equity sooner. You can start paying down your mortgage now and potentially grow your equity even faster if home values increase in the future.
• You can always refinance: If you find your dream home and you're confident you can comfortably cover the monthly mortgage payment, buying now may make sense. You can always refinance later if rates drop enough to make it worthwhile.
• Negotiate a lower rate: "It's becoming a buyer's market," says Gordon. "Be patient. Find a home you really love. If you really want a rate below 6%, make the best offer you can, but don't be afraid to ask the seller to help you buy down the mortgage rate into the 5s. Those days are back."

The bottom line

No one can predict with 100% certainty exactly where rates will go next, and there are risks to waiting for rates to fall further. So, while getting a good mortgage rate is important, it's even more critical to do your due diligence and run the numbers to determine whether buying now offers enough advantages to accept a slightly higher rate. And, if you find the right home and the numbers make sense, you have he option to refinance in the future if rates drop enough to warrant the extra costs that come with it.