What's At Stake In Primary Elections

In the busiest primary day of the 2002 election cycle so far, voters in seven states will head to the polls on Tuesday. The races in Alabama, Iowa, Mississippi, Montana, New Jersey, New Mexico and South Dakota range from nail-biters to runaways, and in several contests, the primary winner will essentially lock-up a general election victory five months shy of November.

Democrats and Republicans are both focusing on the Senate this year, where Democratic control is determined by a razor-thin one-vote margin.

In New Jersey and Iowa, GOP Senate hopefuls are vying for the right to challenge Robert Torricelli and Tom Harkin, two financially-strong Democratic incumbents.

In New Jersey, Democratic Sen. Robert Torricelli has emerged from a year of political scandal as a strong front-runner in the November election.

The GOP had hoped for a better-known candidate to challenge Torricelli, including possible dream candidates like former governors Christie Whitman or Tom Kean, but none stepped forward. The GOP also had some trouble with those that did.

One candidate, James Treffinger, dropped out of the race last month after FBI agents raided his office as part of a political corruption scandal. Robert Ray, the former Whitewater special counsel, backed out after a few weeks when he had a hard time getting the required 1,000 signatures needed to be on the ballot.

Tuesday, New Jersey Republicans will choose among wealthy businessman Douglas Forrester and Diane Allen, a former TV reporter turned politico and state Sen. John Matheussen.

In mid-May, Forrester reported raising $3.1 million and had $1.25 million in the bank, a large chunk of which he contributed himself. Forrester's financial advantage over Allen and Matheussen - and the perception that his personal wealth and fundraising abilities will be helpful against Torricelli's fundraising machine that has pulled in $7.4 million for this race so far – has made him the front-runner.

In Iowa, Rep. Greg Ganske is facing an unexpectedly tough challenge from conservative challenger Bill Salier, a farmer and former U.S. Marine, to run against three-term Democratic incumbent, Sen. Tom Harkin. Although most political observers believe Ganske will beat Salier, whose poll numbers have only reached the low 40s, a low turnout could make it tight.

Whoever wins in Iowa will have a tough fight against Harkin, who has raised more than $5.4 million for the race. Ganske, helped by a visit from President Bush, raised $564,000 from April 1 to May 15, leaving him with $1.2 million cash-on-hand. Salier, who has concentrated his race on the most conservative voters (including visits from Oliver North and Alan Keyes), raised just $137,000 through mid-May. In one of the more hopeful political statements of the year, Salier dismisses the importance of money in modern politics: "It's not the money, it's the message."

In Montana, Democratic incumbent Max Baucus is surging in the polls after a shaky start. He's facing cosmetics-industry entrepeneur and state senator Mike Taylor. Baucus was buoyed by the decision of popular former governor and current Republican National Committee chairman Marc Racicot not to run for the Senate.

Among House primary races, three of the tightest are for the at-large race in South Dakota and contests in Alabama's first and seventh districts.

Nine-term Representative Sonny Callahan's pending retirement has left the Alabama's heavily-Republican 1st District seat up for grabs. Two Capitol Hill veterans - Jo Bonner, Callahan's former chief of staff and Tom Young, ex-chief of staff to Alabama Senator Richard Shelby - have used their Washington connections to raise money. Young raised $1 million through May 15, and Bonner took-in $536,000. In a recent poll, Bonner led by 13 points.

In the largely Democratic Alabama seventh, five-term Rep. Earl Hilliard, 60, faces 34-yr-old Harvard Law School graduate, Artur Davis. The race has become a battle between two generations of black political leaders in Alabama. And with no Republican in the race, Tuesday's winner is almost assured a general election victory.

It's been an ugly one so far.

In a recent television interview, Hilliard that Davis had been forced to resign as a federal prosecutor because of allegations of date rape. Later, Hilliard admitted that he did not know if the accusation was true. Davis, meanwhile, has harped on Hilliard's various ethical lapses, including allegations did not pay his taxes, and was rebuked by the House Ethics Committee last summer for using campaign gifts for personal use. Davis's TV ads caution voters, "He's scammed then. He's scamming now."

In South Dakota, five GOP candidates are competing for the state's sole House seat, but the race is most heavily focused on Gov. Bill Janklow and former Sen. Larry Pressler, who also held the House seat for 10 years. Janklow and Pressler have been political rivals for three decades. Janklow has the most money of all candidates, and the most recent figures show him leading in the polls.

Tuesday's gubernatorial races provide a bit less drama than the House and Senate.

In Alabama, Gov. Don Siegelman is expected to coast to victory in Tuesday's Democratic primary – he is polling at 71 percent – polls also show him losing to presumptive GOP nominee Rep. Bob Riley. Riley has surged in recent weeks; he was the choice of 62 percent of voters who said they plan to cast ballots Tuesday. If Riley pulls in more than 50 percent, which appears likely, he will avoid a divisive run-off with Lieutenant Gov. Steve Windom and Greenville businessman Tim James, son of former Alabama governor Fob James, whom Siegelman ousted in 1998.

Riley's rise has stunned Alabama political observers. In a campaign that has focused heavily on his "outsider" status, Riley has touted his ability to rout out corruption and waste in the Capitol.

"There are thousands and thousands of Alabamans who are sick and tired of Don Siegelman," Riley spokesman David Azbell told the Mobile Register, "and voters want to choose the best candidate to replace Don Siegelman."

Polls notwithstanding, both the Windom and James camps are saying they expect a run-off with Riley which, if needed, is scheduled for June 25. "Our polling is showing we are on the very verge of winning this without a runoff," said Azbell. "But poll numbers are just numbers. Nothing counts until the voters leave the booth."

Meanwhile, Iowa Republican candidates are battling for the opportunity to take on popular incumbent governor Tom Vilsack in November. The three rivals for the GOP bid – state Rep. Steve Sukup, attorney Bob Gross and businessman Bob Vander Platts – are focusing heavily on west Iowa. The state's new fifth Congressional district – with its hotly contested GOP battle for the seat – is expected to draw voters to the polls, and could produce one-third of the votes in Tuesday's GOP primary.

A poll conducted in late May showed Gross with a 10-point lead over Sukup. "He is the most credible candidate against Governor Vilsack, and it appears to us Iowa Republicans are recognizing that," said a spokesman for the Gross campaign.

In what may be a positive sign for Gross, Tom Vilsack unleashed an ad attacking Gross for his representation of corporate hog producers. Gross commented that the timing of Vilsack's ad shows that the governor feels threatened. "It tells me this guy is having a panic attack," Gross told the Des Moines Register.

In New Mexico, former Clinton administration official Bill Richardson is unopposed in the Democratic gubernatorial contest. Richardson, considered a strong favorite in the fall, likely will face fellow Hispanic state Rep. John Sanchez.