What could happen to credit card rates now that inflation is holding steady?

Borrowers with revolving debt have been waiting for months — and in some cases years — on end to get a meaningful break from this expensive credit card environment. But with average credit card APRs still hovering near record-high levels of over 22%, carrying a credit card balance remains costly — and the latest inflation data may not be so welcome for the borrowers who have been hoping rate relief is just around the corner.

The Consumer Price Index (CPI) rose 3.4% annually in August, according to the latest report, matching July's pace but coming in slightly above the 3.3% economists had expected. Core inflation, which strips out volatile food and energy costs, eased slightly on an annual basis, but accelerated from July on a monthly basis.

That combination matters because the Federal Reserve is set to make its next interest rate decision on September 16, and inflation remains well above the central bank's 2% target. So, with the Fed's decision on the horizon, credit card users may want to pay close attention to what happens next — particularly if they're carrying a balance from month to month.

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What could happen to credit card rates now that inflation is holding steady?

Inflation holding steady might sound like relatively good news after the sharp price increases Americans have faced in recent years. But at 3.4%, inflation is still running too hot for the Fed's comfort. And because credit card rates are closely connected to the Fed's benchmark rate, that could have important consequences for cardholders.

Most credit cards have variable interest rates tied to the prime rate, which generally moves alongside changes to the federal funds rate. So, when the Fed raises its benchmark rate, the prime rate typically rises as well, and variable credit card APRs tend to follow.

That's why the August inflation report could be particularly important. The Fed has been looking for convincing evidence that inflation is moving sustainably toward its 2% target, but the latest data doesn't necessarily provide it. Overall inflation remained at 3.4%, while core prices increased 0.3% from July, an acceleration from the prior month's 0.2% increase.

Those numbers have strengthened expectations that the Fed could raise rates at its September meeting. Following the CPI release, the probability of a rate hike jumped to 90%, up from 70% the previous day, according to CME FedWatch data.

If the Fed follows through with a rate hike at its upcoming meeting, credit card rates could rise soon afterward. And, even a relatively small increase could make revolving balances more expensive, particularly for borrowers carrying thousands of dollars in debt. Higher APRs mean more of each monthly payment can be absorbed by interest, which can also lengthen the amount of time it takes to eliminate the card balance.

That said, a rate increase isn't guaranteed. Core inflation's annual rate declined to 2.4% in August from 2.5% in July, which is a positive sign, and the Fed will weigh a range of economic indicators when deciding what to do. If policymakers leave rates unchanged instead, credit card APRs may remain near their current elevated levels rather than moving significantly higher.

Either way, borrowers probably shouldn't count on substantially cheaper credit card debt in the immediate future. With inflation still above target and new energy-related price pressures creating additional uncertainty, the conditions that would support significant rate cuts have yet to materialize.

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How to lower your credit card rates now

You don't necessarily have to wait for the Fed to lower rates to reduce what you're paying on your credit card balances. Depending on your finances and credit profile, there are several rate-lowering strategies worth considering, including the following:

• Ask your issuer for a lower card rate: If you have a strong payment history, your credit card issuer may be willing to reduce your APR if you ask, particularly if your credit profile has improved or you have lower-rate offers from competing issuers. There's no guarantee the card issuer will agree, but asking generally doesn't hurt.
• Look into a credit card hardship program: If you're struggling to keep up with your payments because of a job loss, reduced income or another financial hardship, your card issuer may offer to enroll you in a temporary credit card hardship program that lowers your interest rate or modifies your monthly payments.
• Consider a 0% balance transfer: If you have good credit, you may qualify for a balance transfer card offering an introductory 0% APR period. That can temporarily eliminate interest charges on the transferred balance, although you'll typically pay a balance transfer fee and will want to repay as much as possible before the promotional period expires.
• Use a lower-rate consolidation loan: A debt consolidation loan can replace multiple high-rate card balances with one fixed-rate loan. This strategy makes the most sense if the new loan's APR is meaningfully below what you're currently paying.
• Explore a debt management plan: Credit counseling agencies may be able to arrange reduced interest rates with your creditors through a debt management plan. You then make one monthly payment to the agency, which distributes the money to your creditors under the negotiated terms.

The bottom line

The August inflation report doesn't provide a clear path toward cheaper credit card borrowing. Inflation may have held steady, but it remains above the Fed's target, and the latest data has increased expectations that policymakers could raise rates at their September meeting. If that happens, variable credit card APRs could move higher as well.

The Fed isn't the only route to a lower credit card rate, though. Negotiating with your issuer, enrolling in a hardship program, transferring a balance or consolidating your debt could reduce your borrowing costs regardless of what policymakers decide next week. And with the direction of rates still uncertain, it may make sense to explore those options before additional interest charges make your balances harder to manage.