Washington Wrap
Dotty Lynch, Douglas Kiker, Beth Lester and Clothilde Ewing of the CBS News Political Unit have the latest from the nation's capital.
Monday's Headlines
* Poll Watch: Kerry Looks Strong In Feb. 3 States
* Bush Heads to Carolina After Democratic Primary
* The Numbers: Dean Campaign Really Is Broke
* Superdelegate Tide Flowing Kerry's Way
* Newspapers Ignore Polls And Endorse Lieberman
Poll Watch: Feb. 3 States Look Good For Kerry: In this rapidly unfolding tale of many states, there are polls galore the day before voters cast their ballots in the seven Feb. 3 contests. In South Carolina, where no fewer than five surveys have been released in the past three days, John Edwards is leading John Kerry in all polls, albeit by varying margins.
The newest CBS News poll (conducted Jan. 31-Feb. 1; margin of error 4 percent) shows Edwards with a four-point lead, down from seven in the previous day's poll in part by the strong showing of Al Sharpton. But today's Reuters/MSNBC/Zogby poll (conducted Jan. 30-Feb. 1; margin of error 4.1 percent) has Edwards leading Kerry by five, an improvement over a statistical dead heat (24 to 23) the day before. A slightly older Los Angeles Times/CNN (conducted Jan. 28-Jan. 30; margin of error 5 percent) poll shows Edwards holding onto a 12-point lead, while yesterday's American Research Group (conducted Jan. 29-Jan. 31; margin of error 4 percent) has Edwards leading with 30 to Kerry's 23. Finally, a local poll done by SC Index for the city of Columbia, S.C. (conducted Jan. 28-30; margin of error 3 3.8 percent), shows Edwards with a five-point lead.
Moving west, Missouri shows all the signs of a "blowout in the making" for Kerry. Zogby shows Kerry leading by 35, the L.A. Times has Kerry with a 26-point lead and ARG (conducted Jan. 28-Jan. 29; margin of error 4 percent), has Kerry up by no less than 31 points.
In Arizona, four polls show Kerry leading with Wesley Clark battling for second place. Zogby and a poll from the Arizona Republic (conducted Jan. 30-31; margin of error 4 percent) show the largest margin with 13 points separating the senator and the general. ARG has the margin at 11 points and the L.A. Times puts the spread at seven.
Moving to Oklahoma, there are better signs for Clark in a race against Kerry. Zogby and ARG both have a statistical tie between the two, with just one point separating them.
Taken together, today's polls present a lot of good news for Kerry and some rays of hope for both Edwards and Clark. Two names barely registering: Howard Dean and Joe Lieberman. Dean, as widely reported, is not investing in the Feb. 3 states. Lieberman, however, has invested heavily, spending over $1.5 million on advertising in South Carolina, Oklahoma and Arizona. The result: not much poll movement. Lieberman's highest number is 9 points in the ARG Arizona poll. And the bad news doesn't stop there: a new University of Connecticut poll (conducted Jan. 27-28; margin of error 4.3 percent) shows Lieberman losing in his own backyard, trailing Kerry by a large margin back in Connecticut.
With Kerry heading up and Edwards and Clark sprinting, look for tomorrow's ballots to sort these polls out for good.
South Carolina
CBS News – South Carolina 1/31-2/1 (777 interveiws)
Edwards 28
Kerry 24
Sharpton 13
Clark 10
Dean 8
Undecided 11
Zogby – South Carolina 1/30-2/1 (600 interviews)
Edwards 30
Kerry 25
Dean 10
Clark 10
Sharpton 7
Undecided 9
LA Times/CNN – South Carolina 1/28-1/30 (448 interviews)
Edwards 32
Kerry 20
Clark 8
Dean 7
Sharpton 5
Undecided 23
ARG – South Carolina 1/29-31 (600 interviews)
Edwards 30
Kerry 23
Clark 12
Sharpton 10
Dean 9
Undecided 12
SC Index 1/28-130 (750 interviews)
Edwards 27
Kerry 22
Clark 7
Sharpton 6
Dean 5
Undecided 29
Missouri
Zogby – Missouri 1/30-2/1 (600 interviews)
Kerry 50
Edwards 15
Dean 9
Lieberman 4
Clark 4
Undecided 11
LA Times/CNN – Missouri 1/28-1/30 (545 interviews)
Kerry 37
Edwards 11
Dean 7
Clark 6
Lieberman 6
Undecided 30
ARG – Missouri 1/28-29 (600 interviews)
Kerry 46
Edwards 15
Dean 7
Clark 6
Undecided 15
Arizona
Zogby – Arizona 1/30-2/1 (600 interviews)
Kerry 40
Clark 27
Dean 13
Lieberman 6
Edwards 6
Undecided 5
LA Times/CNN – Arizona 1/28-1/30 (451 interviews)
Kerry 29
Clark 22
Dean 8
Edwards 3
Undecided 22
ARG – Arizona 1/30-31 (600 interviews)
Kerry 32
Clark 21
Edwards 11
Dean 10
Lieberman 9
Undecided 16
Arizona Republic 1/30-31 (601 interviews)
Kerry 32
Clark 19
Dean 12
Lieberman 7
Edwards 6
Undecided 23
Oklahoma
Zogby – Oklahoma 1/30-2/1 (600 interviews)
Clark 28
Kerry 27
Edwards 19
Lieberman 7
Dean 6
Undecided 12
ARG-Oklahoma 1/30-31 (600 interviews)
Clark 25
Kerry 23
Edwards 18
Dean 8
Lieberman 8
Undecided 16
Connecticut
University of Connecticut 1/27-28 (507 interviews)
Kerry 43
Lieberman 18
Dean 8
Edwards 6
Clark 4
Undecided 21
Do We Detect A Pattern Here?: President Bush travels to South Carolina on Thursday for a homeland security event in Charleston. The president's visit to the Palmetto State comes two days after the heavily covered Democratic presidential primary on Tuesday and mirrors, in timing at least, a presidential visit to New Hampshire last week two days after its primary.
While it seems like smart politics for Mr. Bush to play political catch-up in New Hampshire, a state he barely won in 2000 over Al Gore, after more than a year of bashing from his prospective Democratic rivals, the president's trip to South Carolina is a bit tougher to figure out.
A CBS News poll of registered voters in South Carolina found that it appears to be shaping up as a remarkably close race for President Bush against an unnamed Democratic candidate in November. In fact, the survey found that the president would lose to an unnamed Democrat, 46 percent to 44 percent. That is a statistical dead-heat in a state Mr. Bush won by 16 points in 2000.
The tightness in South Carolina could well be the result of months of relentless pounding by the Democrats. If that is the case, this might be as close as it gets. But the survey also found that a huge number of South Carolina voters – 40 percent – say a lack of jobs is driving their political leanings. If the economy, at least on the job front, does not pick up, the potential exists for trouble for Bush-Cheney in the fall.
For more on the South and presidential politics, check out CBS News Senior Political Editor Dotty Lynch's latest "Political Points" column at www.cbsnews.com.
And the Numbers Are In: After months of speculation, the year-end financial filings of candidates running for president are finally available. Confirming the rumors, the Dean campaign spent almost all of the record $41 million he raised, with only $8.5 million cash on hand at the end of 2003, says the Associated Press. Last week, following heavy spending in January, the campaign told various sources that it had about $5 million in the bank. It has not, to say the least, been a good couple of weeks in Burlington.
Current front-runner John Kerry had a much tougher money quarter than his poll standing now suggests. After loaning his cash-poor campaign $2.9 million, he ended the year having raised $25.3 million, according to the New York Times. With the money he spent, that left about $1.6 million in the bank. In January, however, he put the remainder of a $6.4 million loan into his campaign, allowing him to buy "$2.4 million in TV time split evenly between Iowa and New Hampshire. He won the Iowa caucuses and the New Hampshire primary decisively," concludes the Washington Post.
According to FEC filings, Wesley Clark raised about $14 million last year, remarkable in part because he only entered the race in September. After spending, he has about $3 million cash on hand as of January 1, reports the Post. At the moment, however, that campaign cash has not translated into particular poll strength.
Significantly worse off when the year ended were the campaigns of John Edwards, Joe Lieberman and the now-out Dick Gephardt. Lieberman's campaign had $350,000 left to spend and Gephardt just $450,000 as the New Year began. Gephardt is now officially out of the race and Lieberman's fund-raising has yet to rebound. These campaigns all stayed in the public finance system so they were able to compete in Iowa and New Hampshire because of an influx of matching money.
According to the Edwards campaign their showing in Iowa and New Hampshire has brought them some $1.3 million in new funding. Edwards had only $275,000 in cash on hand at the end of the year got $3.7 million in matching money. Although Edwards' current financial position is not entirely clear, the Wall Street Journal suggests that his spending may have been the right choice. Although he spent $6.4 in the fourth quarter, the WSJ says, "A fourth-period splurge led to a January surge." As voters head to the polls in seven states tomorrow, it remains to be seen whose money will pay off best this time.
Superdelegates Start Flocking to Kerry: Judging by the latest CBS News survey, Democratic superdelegates – members of Congress and Democratic Party officials smell a winner. As a result, in the latest tally, John Kerry has gained rapidly on Howard Dean. Kerry's has gone from 76 votes last Wednesday to 113 this week. Dean, for now, is holding his 132.
A series of big wins on Tuesday night – when 269 delegates are up for grabs – should embolden more of the elite group of 801 to look Kerry's way.
In the wake of Kerry's big win in New Hampshire six days ago, CBS News and the New York Times called back three groups of superdelegates: 1) those who were undecided before Tuesday, 2) those who were leaning toward but still uncommitted to a candidate and 3) Dean supporters who previously indicated they might change their minds.
Trailing Dean and Kerry are Wesley Clark with 47, John Edwards with 44, Joe Lieberman with 26, Al Sharpton with 3 and Dennis Kucinich with 2. Dick Gephardt, who dropped out in the wake of his fourth-place finish in Iowa on Jan. 19, still has three superdelegates who are sticking with their guy.
Newspapers Don't Give Up on Lieberman: After coming in a disappointing fifth place in New Hampshire and not even leading the polls in his native Connecticut, many people are questioning why Joe Lieberman is still in the race. That is, except for the editorial boards of two of South Carolina's largest newspapers – The State of Columbia and the Greenville News and Washington state's biggest newspaper, the Seattle Times all of which endorsed Lieberman over the weekend.
The State, evidently keeping an eye on the polls asked readers to look beyond the numbers. "Regardless of who leads in the polls, Joe Lieberman most deserves South Carolina's support," it wrote. Last week, Lieberman also won the endorsement of Arizona's largest paper, the Arizona Republic. Campaign staffers must be hoping though that these endorsements bring better luck than the "prized" endorsement from one New Hampshire's paper, the Manchester Union Leader, which did little to boost his struggling campaign.
Quote of the Day: "I look forward to that debate when John Kerry, a war hero with a chest full of medals, is standing next to George Bush, a man who was AWOL in the Alabama National Guard." – Democratic National Committee Chairman Terry McAuliffe on Sunday, opening a line of attack against President Bush. (New York Times)