Virginia Could Be In Play In '08
The Virginia Democratic Party's retaking of the state Senate on Tuesday has renewed speculation that the Old Dominion could be in play in next year's presidential election, a prospect that was preposterous even a few years ago.
President Bush dispatched Sen. John Kerry by 8 points in 2004, but since that time, Virginians have elected a Democratic governor, Tim Kaine, and a senator, James Webb, to statewide office. Popular Democratic ex-Gov. Mark Warner, who started the trend in 2001 when he was elected governor, is now aiming to keep the streak alive as he runs for Virginia's other Senate seat in 2008.
Political scientist Robert Holsworth, the director of the Center for Public Policy at Virginia Commonwealth University, says he considers the state fully purple now.
"Virginia has to be on the short list when Democrats look to add to the Kerry states," he says. With Warner running for Senate, Holsworth observes, there could even be a "reverse tailcoat" effect, in which the eventual Democratic nominee could pick up votes if Warner remains popular and encourages turnout among Democratic voters.
But presidential elections are a whole different animal. There are numerous examples of states like Montana or North Dakota that will elect Democrats to the Senate while remaining solidly in the Republican column in presidential elections. Turnout for yesterday's election in Virginia, in which all 100 state delegate and all 40 state Senate seats were up, was well below 50 percent in most precincts, according to the state Board of Elections. Turnout in 2004 was over 70 percent.
Still, said Holsworth, a combination of demographic changes, particularly in Northern Virginia, has quickly revised the conventional wisdom in Virginia as more Democratic voters have entered the state. (He specifically identifies the large number of people in the suburbs of Washington who have postgraduate degrees as a significant bloc of left-leaning voters.) And some of the most pressing issues--particularly growth--are not neatly divided along party lines.
"All the issues that are associated with growth trump partisan considerations," Holsworth says.
For longtime Virginians, being in the cross hairs in 2008 could take some adjusting. The state has not elected a Democrat for president since 1964, the year that Lyndon Johnson carried all but six states.
By Chris Wilson