The Third Party Factor

New York Mayor Michael Bloomberg fueled speculation that he might run for president after he quit the Republican Party to become an independent last week.

If he runs for president — something he said he has no plans to do — his candidacy could greatly affect the outcome of the 2008 election.

The last time there was an equally visible third party candidate was in 1992 when billionaire Ross Perot ran. He won 19 percent of the vote, taking votes away from President George H. W. Bush and helping President Bill Clinton win.

Ed Rollins, political director for President Ronald Reagan and co-manager of Perot's 1992 campaign, said millions of voters were eager to learn about an alternative to the Republicans and Democrats.

"I don't think it's a bad thing to have someone else in the process," Rollins told Face the Nation host Bob Schieffer. "And I certainly don't think it's a bad thing to have someone like Mike Bloomberg, who can self-fund and basically talk about major issues bothering voters in this country. And more and more Americans today, particularly young people, haven't — aren't choosing either party. They say they're an independent, and they want to stay an independent, and they want independent choices."

Some are already pushing for an alternate candidate. Unity08 is a group that is dedicated to getting a third-party candidate on the ballot in all 50 states. Actor Sam Waterston, the group's spokesperson, said that Unity08 was hoping appeal to voters disenchanted with both Republicans and Democrats.

"The basic inspiration for Unity08 is the fact that the system itself for choosing our leaders is broken, and everybody knows it," he said. "This presidential campaign is unlike any in almost 100 years, it's very, very open – so there's a very large opportunity."

Waterston cited a new Newsweek poll that 57 percent say the two-party system does not do a good job addressing issues important to Americans.

When asked if he thought Bloomberg would be a good candidate for his party's ticket, Waterston said the voters of Unity08 would choose who should represent them but that the New York mayor shared many of the same values.

"It is one of the names that has been talked about in regard to Unity08," Waterston said. "It seems to me that it's very telling about the condition of the process right now that he would choose to become an independent, having tried being a Democrat, and having tried being a Republican."

The Newsweek poll, however, found that, if Americans want a third party candidate, Bloomberg may not be the one. Sixty-five percent said that if Bloomberg runs they are "not too likely" or "not at all likely" to vote for him.

If Bloomberg were to launch a presidential campaign, which party of candidate would he take the most votes from?

"There's no question the Republicans and Rudy Giuliani, in particular, would be hurt most by the entry of Mike Bloomberg," said former Democratic New York Mayor Ed Koch, who supports Sen. Hillary Clinton's bid for the White House.

Koch said all the talk about Bloomberg has already illuminated former New York City Mayor Rudy Giuliani's weaknesses.

"Rudy Giuliani is already doing what he always does," Koch said. "He becomes angry and upset and mean-spirited. He's already attacked Bloomberg by saying, 'What do you mean you ran the city like a business? I did that.'"

Rollins said a Bloomberg candidacy could hurt the entire Republican party.

"We're down to about 25 percent self-identified Republicans," he said. "We don't want a candidate to take away those 14 or 15 points that are probably more moderate Republicans, and I think to a certain extent a Bloomberg can do that."

John Harris of politico.com, however, said that Bloomberg – or another third party candidate – might hurt the Democrats more than Republicans.

"The larger environment right now overwhelmingly favors Democrats – unpopular war, unpopular president, increasingly unpopular party on the Republican side," Harris said. "A Bloomberg candidacy or some other third party candidacy lends a big sort of volatile, unpredictable factor in that. So I'd have to say it's the Democrats who shouldn't want that."