States Of Confusion
Imagine drawing a map of the United States to tally electoral votes, complete with shaded areas indicating which states appear to be leaning to one presidential candidate and which states are still considered too close to call. Now imagine creating this complex drawing, based on countless surveys, voter interviews, state demographics and voting history – on a child's Etch-A-Sketch. One tilt or shake of the board, and it's time to start all over.
That's what it's come down to as the presidential race enters the final homestretch. A candidate's performance on a single day can change the scope of the entire national picture.
"This is absolutely insane," says John Zogby, an independent pollster who oversees state and national voter surveys. According to his most recent numbers, Vice President Al Gore has inched past Republican George W. Bush because "he's had two very good days out of the last three."
Zogby says people who don't understand that, don't understand voters. According to his numbers, six to eight percent of the electorate remains undecided, while another 16 to 18 percent say they could still change their minds. Their opinions are often based on snap judgments, influenced perhaps by a campaign ad they just saw or something they read that day in the paper. These voters "at best are paying peripheral attention," Zogby says.
That appears to be the case in some of the most closely watched battleground states, where the presidential race remains neck and neck, especially Florida, Michigan, Missouri and Wisconsin.
Florida (25 electoral votes)
On Wednesday, a CBS News/New York Times poll gave Gore a 4 percent lead over Bush, while a statewide poll released the same day by the Ft. Lauderdale Sun-Sentinel gave Bush a 5 percent lead. Both polls fall within the margin of error, but some political analysts feel they are proof that many voters in the Sunshine State have yet to make up their minds.
Richard Scher, a political scientist at the University of Florida has followed presidential races in the state for more than 20 years. "I've never seen anything like this," he says.
Scher suspects part of the reason for the inconclusive numbers is the fact that, "Voters in Florida have a very poor sense of party loyalty." He predicts about 5 percent of registered voters within each party are disaffected. Add that 10 percent to the 16-18 percent of unaffiliated voters in the state, and you have close to a third of Floridians who remain undecided.
Scher notes that many of the unaffiliated are senior citizens, who make up about a quarter of the state's population but traditionally account for a third of the voter turnout on Election Day.
"I think it's going to be determined in large party by what happens with the elders," Scher says. He believes Gore has been much more effective at painting Bushs proposals for Social Security and Medicare as "iffy." The CBS poll bears that out: Florida seniors favored Gore over Bush by a 10-point margin.
But Scher cautions the Gore camp against overconfidence. He warns that the vice president could still be in big trouble unless there's a big turnout of African-American voters on Election Day.
"Quite frankly, that's the wild card," he says. Many African Americans became disillusioned with the state Democratic Party in recent years, but came back after Gov. Jeb Bush, the candidate's brother, put an end to state affirmative action programs.
By some estimates, the Bush campaign has lately been spending a million dollars a week on ads to hold onto a state they thought they had locked up; a state that could very well stand between winning or losing the White House.
Michigan (18 electoral votes)
If Florida is considered a must-win for Bush, Michigan fits that bill for Gore.
Before the presidential debates, the vice president held a 6-point lead over the Texas governor and a 10 percent margin in favorability ratings. But those numbers have plummeted, according to a leading pollster in the state. Currently the two candidates are locked in a statistical dead heat.
"For Gore, the best thing is the debates ended as soon as they did," says Ed Sarpolus of the independent polling firm EPIC/MRA.
Sarpolus' numbers show that while Gore leads significantly on the issues, especially health care and education, undecided voters are turning the race into a personality contest.
He estimates that of the roughly 10 percent who remain undecided statewide, about half won't vote. The rest will choose the candidate they feel most comfortable with because they see no real differences between them, or they're confused over their stands on the issues or generally satisfied with the way the country is going.
"If they're not focusing on the issues, then they're deciding whom they like best," says Sarpolus.
Gore's task is to improve the opinion voters have of him and to energize his base of support, particularly among African-American voters.
Sarpolus says a Michigan school voucher initiative might boost turnout among Catholic Democrats and help Gore's cause, even though the vice president does not support diverting public school money to private schools. It could also attract more public school teachers, a group that traditionally supports Democrats, to the voting booths.
Missouri (11 electoral votes)
The Show-Me State is the country's ultimate bellwether. Missouri has failed to pick the winner in a presidential contest just twice in the past century. At this moment, it may be breaking slightly towards George W. Bush.
"I think Bush has been gaining momentum," says Rick Hardy, a political science professor at the University of Missouri, but "essentially it's too close to call "
Hardy says the whole election picture could be complicated by the recent, untimely death of popular Democratic Gov. Mel Carnahan, who was locked in a tight U.S. Senate race with Republican incumbent John Ashcroft. A proposal to have Carnahan's widow, Jean, take his place should he be elected posthumously could change the complexion of the race, and spur turnout among Democratic voters and women.
"We're charting new ground," says Hardy.
But even if the Democrats win the Senate seat, it might not translate into a Gore victory. Hardy estimates that 60 to 65 percent of Missouri voters now split their ticket. He also points to the state's suburbs as an indicator of how the rest of the state will go in November; particularly fast-growing St. Louis County, which he says is becoming increasingly Republican.
Wisconsin (11 electoral votes)
The Badger State has voted Democratic in four of the past six presidential elections, but a recent poll here may signal trouble for the Gore campaign.
A statewide survey published this week by the Milwaukee Journal-Sentinel shows Bush with a 49 percent to 40 percent lead, large enough to be outside the poll's margin of error. One of the most interesting findings is a dramatic change in the state's gender gap. In a poll by the same newspaper a month ago, Bush led Gore among men by 5 points, while Gore led among women by a 16-percent margin. In the current poll, Bush has a hefty 22-point edge among men while Gore's lead among women has slipped to 4 points.
David Canon, a political scientist at the University of Wisconsin-Madison observes that the Bush campaign has been effective at targeting the state's female centrist voters, citing the "W stands for Women" tour, featuring Barbara and Laura Bush, which made a stop in Wisconsin. "The women's vote is definitely key," he says.
Canon also notes that Wisconsin has been trending toward Democrats since 1988, and that the two parties are closely balanced in regard to statewide and federal offices. The Democrats currently hold both U.S. Senate seats and the state Senate, while Republicans control the governorship and the statehouse. "I would be surprised if (either candidate) would get that big of a victory."
Canon believes as well that Green Party candidate Ralph Nader is siphoning off votes from Gore in this traditionally reform-minded state.
"Right now, if the election were held today, the Nader voters would give the election to Bush," he says.
Other States to Watch
Some other states where Nader has maintained momentum include Minnesota, Oregon, Washington and Maine. Those states, which Bill Clinton carried in 1992 and 1996, have since moved into the "tossup" category on many pundits' lists. They also account for 32 electoral votes.
The other key states to watch are Pennsylvania, the second biggest electoral prize still up or grabs, with 23 electoral votes, Ohio (21), Illinois (22) and Tennessee (11).
Some pollsters have said neither candidate can win the White House without winning Pennsylvania. In the last couple of weeks, the state has shown a slight turn towards Gore. But neither campaign is writing the state off just yet. In fact, the Philadelphia television market leads the country in the number of campaign ads promoting the presidential candidates. Turnout will decide the race, especially in the suburbs.
Last-minute voters may decide the race in Ohio, where Bush appears to be regaining his earlier lead. No Republican has ever won the White House without carrying the Buckeye State.
As for Gore's home state of Tennessee, Republican hopes for a sweep of the Volunteer State may not be so far-fetched. Tennessee's governor, both U.S. senators and five of nine congressmen are Republicans.
But Gore has never lost an election at home. He spent eight years in the U.S. House, eight in the Senate and eight as vice president. Still, he was forced to spend valuable time there this week campaigning on his own turf.
Worse for Gore would be a loss in California, an upset considered fatal to his campaign because it would mean a loss of 54 electoral votes. Recent polls, including one released Wednesday by the Los Angeles Times, show the race tightening. Gore now holds about a 7-point advantage in the state, according to the Times survey, down from double-digit lead just a month ago. But while that erosion of support may hurt Democratic candidates further down the ticket, most experts agree the state remains safely within Gore's grasp.