Congratulations, you just won the Iowa caucuses. Your prize: Five more grueling days of campaigning in New Hampshire! Some thoughts heading into the Granite State:
If your campaign has suffered a decisive loss and a near must-win contest looming in a matter of days, how should you respond? The lesson plan from campaign 101 class freshman year says the answer is clear – go negative. Barack Obama, John McCain and, to a lesser extent Mike Huckabee, should expect their opponents to increasingly seek to talk about the "real differences" between them. Even before voters began streaming into Iowa caucus sites, Mitt Romney was on the air with a new ad attacking McCain on the issue of tax cuts. But that approach didn't serve Romney well in Iowa. Despite millions spent criticizing Huckabee, the former Arkansas governor soared to a big victory. New Hampshire, the legend goes, is not "Iowa nice" and likes its politics a little rougher. Candidates like Romney and Clinton may have little choice. If they have some bullets left in the chamber, we may see them fired over the weekend.
Odd as it seems, there may be a silver lining in Clinton's loss in Iowa. The fact that she came in a very close third leave John Edwards hanging tight in the race. In interviews and comments after the results, Edwards signaled that he feels the time has come to perhaps engage Obama in a more direct manner. Arguing that the results demonstrated the mood for "change," Edwards then went on to insist there are differences between his brand and Obama's. Should Edwards begin to express those differences in an aggressive manner, Clinton could gain from the fight. At the very least, it puts her in a position to not be the only one criticizing Obama.Nobody may be suffering a bigger hangover from Iowa than Romney. His strategy was largely based on gaining unstoppable momentum in the early contests and rolling into Super-Duper Tuesday on February 5th. Having lost the first one, winning the second suddenly becomes much more difficult. And a loss in New Hampshire could prove disastrous for a former governor of neighboring Massachusetts. While Michigan's primary looms shortly after New Hampshire, that contest has been largely ignored by both the candidates and the media. A win there does not necessarily translate into momentum and McCain has also been active there, a strategy that could bury Romney should the Arizona senator win there. With change on the lips of all, perhaps we'll finally get around to discussing what kind of change is actually being proposed. It's one thing for candidates like Obama and Huckabee to offer fresh faces and voices to the process, it's quite another to offer specifics about what they might bring to the White House. Both winning Iowa candidates are likely to face more and more questions about their policy specifics – and the gulf between high-minded rhetoric and political reality. Change is rarely a painless process and is almost always met with far more resistance than business-as-usual. Certainly not everyone will be happy with what "changes" might come, but then perhaps they're not included in the rest of the country. All the soaring rhetoric in the world won't change the battles the next president will have to fight. Obama will only appoint Supreme Court judges who would uphold abortion rights, Huckabee says he will only appoint those who oppose Roe v. Wade. On that, health care, taxes and Iraq, it sounds like politics as usual. And while the media finally gets around to pressing Obama and Huckabee what they might actually do as president of the United States, it might be nice if we could finally figure out who this "they" is that they're always railing against.
Lest we forget, aside from all the campaign events, there are three – yes three – presidential debates this weekend. These events are certainly going to be smaller, at least on the Democratic side. Both Chris Dodd and Joe Biden have dropped out of the race, but so far the GOP field remains as intact as it was going into Iowa. Don't underestimate the potential impact of these debates. With one fight under the belt and the second looming in hours, the tensions will be extra high. Factor in the fact that most of these candidates are operating on severe sleep deprivation and the flub-factor could play a huge role.What is to be made of Rudy Giuliani in this new GOP landscape? At one point it appeared the contest was heading toward a Romney-Giuliani showdown, most likely culminating in Florida and the February 5th contests. As Iowa drew near, it seemed that Giuliani's rope-a-dope strategy was a big loser, raising questions of how any candidate could sit on the sidelines so long and expect success. Now, with the race muddled even further, it could turn out to be a brilliant plan. On the other hand, someone is going to win in New Hampshire and South Carolina and if any candidate can take both those contests, Rudy will be hard-pressed to stop them.