Pure Horserace: Rudy Running Strong
Rudy Giuliani continues to be the hardest piece of the puzzle in the 2008 political landscape to figure out. His candidacy is one which fits where it seems it could not, mismatched in color and shading from the surroundings into which it has been jammed. A socially moderate-to-liberal in a party dominated by conservatives; a metropolitan mayor pitching his candidacy to suburban and rural dwellers; a classical opera-lover plopped in the middle of the Grand Ole Opry.
If you believe the numbers so far, however, Giuliani remains the key piece of the GOP presidential map. Despite all that has been written and said about Giuliani's perceived weaknesses among Republicans, he remains firmly in the lead in the latest CBS News poll, garnering nearly 40 percent of the party's support. Fred Thompson, not yet in the race, trails far behind with 18 percent.
More interesting is where much of that support is coming from. Twenty-nine percent of self-identified evangelicals say Giuliani is their choice at the moment, as well as 31 percent of conservatives. Forty-seven percent of those who believe only a candidate's record should be considered in making the choice are backing him, but so are 33 percent who feel that a candidate's personal life is part of the bargain as well — not a bad performance for a thrice-married candidate with a turbulent personal past. And more Republicans in the South (40 percent) support Giuliani than in his regional Northeast base (39 percent).
Not that the increased scrutiny of the former mayor has not had an impact — Giuliani's favorability rating has dropped seven points since the July CBS News poll — but even then, his overall lead has increased dramatically. Of course, results of these national polls have to be taken with a grain of salt, and Giuliani does not perform nearly so well in the early states of Iowa and New Hampshire. Aside from those caveats though, it's getting harder to ignore them. With the intense coverage of this presidential campaign already, Republicans in states not voting in early January can't be flying blind when it comes to their candidates. — Vaughn Ververs
Purity Is Elusive On Iraq: Elizabeth Edwards certainly has not shied away from taking on critics and opponents of her husband, making her the one of the most high-profile advocate/spouses of the campaign. She called into a cable talk show to chastise conservative columnist Ann Coulter and has suggested that John Edwards is more effective advocate for women's issues than Hillary Clinton.
In a new magazine interview, Elizabeth says there has been some "holier-than-thou" behavior on the part of Barack Obama when it comes to the war in Iraq. Mrs. Edwards tells The Progressive magazine that while Obama opposed the war as a state senator in 2002, he has since voted to continue funding for operations in Iraq and notes that as a Senator from North Carolina, Edwards voted against some funding — including the now-famous $87 billion bill.
"Obama gives a speech that's likely to be extraordinarily popular in his home district, and then comes to the Senate and votes for funding," she told the magazine. "So you are going to get people behaving in a holier-than-thou way. But John stood up when he was in the Senate for exactly the thing he's asking these people to stand up for now."
Elizabeth Edwards also questions Hillary Clinton's refusal to apologize for her vote authorizing the war — something which Edwards has very loudly done. But the Obama comments are more telling in that these two candidates are competing for anti-war votes in the Democratic primary and this is exactly the arguments both have made in recent debates. Obama criticizes Edwards and Clinton for voting for the war while Edwards shoots back that Obama continues to vote to fund it. Another reminder that, when it comes to Iraq, it's hard to find a purely anti-war candidate outside of Dennis Kucinich. — Vaughn Ververs
The Latest Fred Alert: Fred Thompson and his campaign apparently didn't think much of last weekend's Iowa straw poll. In a weekly e-mail dispatch from the non-candidate candidate, he writes, "most of the stories from Iowa were about process and theater, not what really matters: how we will meet the challenges that face our country. From national security, to protecting our core values and ensuring continued economic prosperity for all Americans, these are the stories we need to talk about."
No word on when, exactly, we might start hearing from Thompson about "what really matters," but the betting continues to be sometime right after the Labor Day weekend. In the meantime, Thompson was sure to remind supporters that money is an important part of getting his effort in the air.
"We aren't playing by the rules that the folks in Washington think we should be following," he writes, "but if we're going to keep this conversation going, even a testing-the-waters committee needs ongoing financial support. If anything, it's more important, because just as testing-the-waters is about gauging grassroots support, it's also about measuring our ability to raise the money necessary to mount a national campaign." — Vaughn Ververs
Following Mitt's Money: A candidate who has a lot of personal wealth and who uses that wealth to fund their runs for office can suffer serious damage in the public eye if it's revealed that they derive their money from sources that run counter to what they say on the stump. But according to a Los Angeles Times report, Mitt Romney has largely avoided this problem — thanks to a very astute financial manager.
Attorney R. Bradford Malt has been keeping an eye on Romney's assets, which until Monday were wrapped up in a blind trust. The campaign says Romney never gave Malt instructions, but it's clear Malt was at least listening to what Romney said on the campaign trail. When Romney proposed divesting in companies that do business with Iran, Malt sold off stock in one such company, Italian oil firm Eni S.P.A. Stocks for tobacco and casino companies have been sold off in recent months, too, as Romney has talked about improving the moral environment for children.
But keeping a financial portfolio as vast as Romney's totally clean of questionable funds is no easy task — as evidenced by some remaining holdings in Altria Group, the parent of tobacco manufacturer Philip Morris U.S.A., and stock in a Chinese petroleum company that does business in Sudan. But all in all, it could have ended up a lot worse. — David Miller
Looking Ahead To February: Romney is probably feeling pretty good about himself after his Ames Straw Poll victory. How good? Well, a spate of schedule announcements by Romney's campaign suggests that he is starting to look beyond the early-voting states of New Hampshire, Iowa and South Carolina.
Since winning the poll, Romney has visited or announced plans to visit California, Michigan, Georgia and Texas — after spending nearly all of the past month in Iowa. What do all these states have in common? They're all slated to hold primaries on Feb. 5, the so-called Tsunami Tuesday that will include up to two dozen states and should effectively determine presidential nominees in both parties. Also, on Wednesday, Romney will visit Florida, which is scheduled to vote on Jan. 29 next year.
This doesn't mean that Romney is abandoning Iowa after his big win. But with the bounce the straw poll provides, he probably has time to spread his time and money a little more broadly for at least a few weeks. — David Miller
No Rest For Iowa's Weary: Don't think for a moment that the end of Ames Straw Poll hysteria means Iowa gets a break from politics. This year's straw poll coincided with the second-biggest political opportunity in the state: the Iowa State Fair. And unlike the Republican straw poll, this event is bipartisan. It's been going on since Aug. 9 and ends Aug. 19.
The fair has long been a can't-miss political destination for presidential candidates. Today, both John McCain and Bill Richardson are making stops there. Hillary Clinton will visit on Wednesday. Barack Obama will be there on Thursday. Fred Thompson's first Iowa campaign appearance will be at the fair on Friday. John Edwards, who is touring the state this week, was supposed to visit the fair on Monday but, according to the Des Moines Register, had to take the visit off the schedule to make up for time spent caring after his wife, Elizabeth, who had a case of food poisoning stemming from some bad cottage cheese.
Visiting the fair is popular for many reasons, including efficiency — going there can give nearly 100,000 people access to the candidate. It also provides a good opportunity to humanize a candidate. After all, it's hard to look like an overly-polished politician when you're standing next to a prize-winning watermelon or munching on a corn dog. — David Miller
Editor's note: Pure Horserace is a daily update of political news as interpreted by the political observers at CBSNews.com. Click here to sign up for the e-mail version.
By Vaughn Ververs and David Miller