Pure Horserace: Investing In Iowa

When the Iowa Republican Party held its annual straw poll in Ames earlier this month, the Republican hopefuls spent a lot of money buying up tickets to the poll, then giving them away free to people in the hope that their generosity would result in votes. The cost per ticket was $35.

But it looks like the contenders in both parties are well on pace to eclipse that dollar figure courting a much larger group of people - those who will participate in Iowa's Democratic and Republican caucuses, the kickoff event of the 2008 nominating process (even if they end up not happening in 2008 itself). According to an Associated Press report, the campaigns have spent $5 million advertising in Iowa, or about $25 for each expected caucus-goer. All before Labor Day.

Already, two candidates, Republican Mitt Romney and Democrat Bill Richardson, have spent so much on Iowa ads that they're going to surpass what John Kerry and Howard Dean spent during the entire Iowa campaign in 2003-04 - if they haven't already.

But candidate money isn't just going to radio and TV ads - it's also going to other candidates. The Des Moines Register notes that Barack Obama's political action committee has already divvied up $5,000 between the campaign funds of four Iowa Democrats who are up for re-election in 2008: Sen. Tom Harkin and Reps. Leonard Boswell, Bruce Braley and Dave Loebsack. Joe Biden's PAC has given money to Democratic leaders in the Iowa legislature. And the state Democratic Party has received a whopping $500,000 from presidential candidates - the state GOP received more than $200,000 from its party hopefuls.

One facet of the discussion about the increasingly chaotic primary calendar focuses on Iowa's continued relevance to the nominating processes of both parties. Some columnists and TV pundits have speculated that the Hawkeye State will have to move its caucuses up so early that they'll cease to be relevant. But that decision isn't in the hands of the talking heads; it's up to the candidates.

There is no objective way to determine whether the Iowa caucuses will continue to play the significant role in the nominating process they've held for decades. But if the presidential candidates decide they're going to fight over Iowa, the results of that fight are going to be an important factor in deciding who gets each party's nod. The candidates have already spent millions of dollars in Iowa, and there's nothing that suggests the flow of money is drying up. Is it likely that, after spending so much money in one state, the campaigns will abandon it because it comes a little earlier on the calendar? Probably not, we guess. - David Miller

Strategy Shift For Obama? Hillary Clinton's lead over Obama in national polls has been stable, or growing, for months. Obama is competitive in state polls in Iowa and New Hampshire, but doesn't have a significant lead in any of them. The front-runner has also won positive reviews for her debate performances while Obama, especially in early appearances, seemed more tentative than expected. In fact, aside from beating her in the money race, Obama still hasn't found a way to get past Clinton in any respect.

Of course, there's nothing all that bad about being in second place when the first votes are still far away. Trouble is, those votes aren't really all that far away anymore, with the start of what should be a heated fall campaign only days away. So does the Obama campaign have a plan in place heading into this crucial phase?

A column by Jennifer Hunter in the Chicago Sun-Times suggests that's the case, saying that Obama plans on "taking bolder attacks against Clinton (note his description of her as "Bush-Cheney lite" on foreign affairs); retreating from many debates and presidential forums; presenting more detailed policies" like his plan for rebuilding the Gulf Coast, still struggling after Hurricane Katrina in 2005.

David Axelrod, Obama's top strategist, told Hunter that the campaign is shifting from telling people who Obama is to telling them what he'd do as president. Winning that argument against the polished, experienced Clinton is no easy task, but it also might be the only way past her. - David Miller

Romney Goes Hollywood: The Boston Globe's Political Intelligence blog notes that Mitt Romney, and his religion, have been popping up a lot lately in the mass media - sometimes in ways that are flattering, sometimes in ways that are not, and all of them fairly unconventional.

First, there's the controversial new film "September Dawn" that documents the Mountain Meadows massacre, in which a large group of Arkansans traveling through Utah to California were killed by members of a Mormon militia. The complicity of the Mormon church in the incident has been debated ever since. Counterbalancing that is news that a new documentary is being produced, called "A Mormon President," that explores anti-Mormon bias - it's produced and directed by a member of the Mormon History Association - and profiles the presidential campaign of the church's founder, Joseph Smith, who died in 1844 shortly after announcing his candidacy.

On the lighter side of things, Romney also scored a mention on the HBO series "Big Love," which depicts a polygamous family living in Utah. On the show, a woman shown on TV says, "He saved the Olympics. Who cares if he lets his dog ride on the roof of his car? People are just out to get him for any little thing."

Whether that's good for Romney or not is debatable - salvaging the Salt Lake City Winter Olympics may be his greatest achievement, but news that he tied the family dog to the car roof during a family trip, reported earlier this year, might be his biggest embarrassment. - David Miller

Rock Star Treatment: Republican Mike Huckabee is a former minister, but he's also a fan of rock 'n' roll - he even picked up the guitar and played onstage at the Ames Straw Poll. And, as a video from our new partners at washingtonpost.com shows, he's also lent a hand to one of rock's great guitarists.

In spite of the fact that Keith Richards has led a, shall we say, less virtuous life than Huckabee, the Rolling Stones legend was still able to get a pardon for a speeding ticket received in 1975 while driving in Arkansas between gigs. Huckabee says it was one of his last acts as governor and came after meeting Richards backstage at a concert.

As entertaining as that story is, the highlight of the clip may be Huckabee's Richards impression. Let's just say no one will mistake him for being British anytime soon. - David Miller

Editor's note: Pure Horserace is a daily update of political news as interpreted by the political observers at CBSNews.com. Click here to sign up for the e-mail version.

By David Miller