Politics Today: Final Push Ahead of Tuesday's Elections
Politics Today is CBSNews.com's inside look at the key stories driving the day in politics, written by CBS News Political Director Steve Chaggaris:
** Tomorrow's elections: a harbinger of things to come in 2010?...
** Big tax hikes for the rich in health care legislation...
** Afghanistan runoff election canceled...
"Among them: Did President Barack Obama's campaigning in Virginia and New Jersey persuade the diverse voting coalition that lifted him to victory in 2008 to turn out for Democratic candidates in 2009? Did fickle independents stick with the Democratic Party? Did the out-of-power GOP overcome fissures within its ranks to find a winning strategy?
"On Tuesday, Virginia and New Jersey are choosing governors, voters in upstate New York and northern California are deciding who should fill two vacant congressional seats, and New York City and Atlanta are picking mayors. Maine will vote on whether to permit gay marriage while Ohio will choose whether to allow casinos."
"In New Jersey, the race between Gov. Jon S. Corzine and Christopher J. Christie, his Republican challenger, appears to be very tight, according to the latest polls," reports the New York Times' Marjorie Connelly. "When an independent candidate, Christopher J. Daggett, is included, he receives 8 percent to 20 percent of the support of likely voters. All differences between Mr. Corzine and Mr. Christie fall within each poll's margin of sampling error of plus or minus three or four percentage points on each candidate.
"The Republican candidate for governor in Virginia, Robert F. McDonnell, is leading his Democratic opponent, R. Creigh Deeds, according to recent polls of likely voters. Mr. McDonnell's advantages range from 18 points in the Virginia Commonwealth University poll, to 11 points in the Washington Post poll.
"Polls could make several mayors optimistic about their bids for re-election. In New York, Mayor Michael R. Bloomberg leads William C. Thompson Jr., his Democratic challenger, by a wide margin in his attempt at a third term. In the most recent Marist College poll, Mr. Bloomberg is backed by 53 percent when those who lean toward a particular candidate are included; Mr. Thompson is supported by 38 percent."
"'If Newark votes like it voted last year, if New Jersey votes like it voted last year ... if you will let your voice shine through, then I guarantee that you will not only re-elect Jon Corzine for four more years, but you are going to put New Jersey on a path to success for years to come,' Obama said at the Prudential Center, his second major rally of the day for incumbent Democrat Gov. Jon Corzine.
"Turnout in off-year elections is usually lower than during presidential election years. With opinion polls showing the race between Corzine and Republican challenger Chris Christie neck-and-neck, a high turnout is essential for both major party candidates. The speech Obama gave in Newark was largely the same as the one in Camden earlier today…
"'I have something to report: We have the worst financial crisis since the great depression,' he said. 'By the way that didn't start under Jon's watch. That didn't start on my watch. I wasn't sworn in yet. We got a little bit of revisionist history, a little selective memory going on, a little amnesia about how we got into this mess.'"
"Mr. Christie, undeterred by Mr. Obama's appeal, barnstormed Sunday in Bergen County, the state's most populous county, and in Republican strongholds like Morristown and Toms River," write the New York Times' David W. Chen and David M. Halbfinger. "At a separate event in Morristown, Representative Joe Wilson, the South Carolina Republican who yelled 'You lie!' at Mr. Obama on the House floor, campaigned for Mr. Christie.
"'We need to get to the polls each and every person who is sick and tired of Corzine,' Mr. Christie said during an event at the historic Morristown Green."
"Virginia has become a swing state, said Dan Palazzolo, political scientist at the University of Richmond. If, as polls indicate, the Republicans sweep Virginia's three statewide races, a year after the state voted for Obama, 'it will send a message that maybe government is getting too big, that maybe more taxes, more government and more debt is not the way to revive the economy,' he said. ...
"Virginia's national significance was highlighted last week when Obama went to Norfolk to stump for Deeds, while Republican Party headliners, including potential presidential candidates Mitt Romney, Mike Huckabee and Haley Barbour, were in Virginia to campaign for the GOP ticket. ...
"Gov. Timothy M. Kaine, Obama's handpicked chairman of the Democratic National Committee, has campaigned in Virginia and New Jersey in the campaigns' waning hours."
Washington Post's Anita Kumar reports, "Former Alaska Gov. Sarah Palin has recorded a phone message encouraging Virginians to get out and vote on Tuesday, Palin adviser Meg Stapleton told us tonight.
"We are awaiting more details about the calls and will bring you the information as soon as we get it.
Tucker Martin, a spokesman for Republican gubernatorial candidate Bob McDonnell, said Palin's calls were not being made at the request of the campaign or the Republican Party of Virginia. He said the campaign had no firsthand knowledge of the calls."
"Democratic candidate William L. Owens will begin the day in Watertown, joined by Vice President Joseph R. Biden Jr. The two will speak at a get-out-the-vote rally at 10 a.m. at the North Side Improvement League, 633 Mill St. Doors open at 8:30 a.m.
"He will follow that up with a visit from 2:30 to 3 p.m. to John's Family Restaurant, 44 Finney Blvd., Malone, and a get-out-the-vote event from 5:30 to 6:30 p.m. at the Plattsburgh Democratic field office, 373 Route 3.
"Former Sen. Fred Thompson, R-Tenn., will join John Rich, half of the county music group Big & Rich, in an event supporting Conservative candidate Douglas L. Hoffman in Watertown. The concert and rally will be from 6:30 to 7:30 p.m. Monday at the Alex T. Duffy Fairgrounds, off Coffeen Street."
"Doug Hoffman, won support across the GOP Sunday in his race for a House seat in upstate New York, after the Republican nominee pulled out over the weekend," report the Wall Street Journal's Jonathan Weisman and Naftali Bendavid.
"The Republican nominee, State Assemblywoman Dede Scozzafava, on Sunday endorsed the Democrat in the race, Bill Owens, after coaxing from the White House. Ms. Scozzafava, who cited her sagging poll figures and lack of money for dropping out, had drawn widespread criticism from conservatives over her support of President Barack Obama's stimulus package, as well as gay and abortion rights.
"Tuesday's vote in New York's 23rd congressional district, to fill the seat vacated by Army Secretary John McHugh, a Republican, has become a front line in the GOP's growing internal debate over whether the best way to rebuild the party's fortunes is to seek to energize voters by focusing on core principles or to reach out to independents by broadening the platform."
Other races: Wall Street Journal's Chris Herring, "New York's Bloomberg Poised to Win Again"
Washington Post's Karl Vick, "Maine to vote on same-sex marriage"
Portland Press Herald's Susan M. Cover, "Turnout key as Maine prepares for election"
5488506POTENTIAL FALLOUT: "The White House has sought to downplay the races as routine," writes the Associated Press' Philip Elliott. "Still, by the time he returned to the White House Sunday, Obama had attended five events for Corzine's bid amid a schedule that has returned to campaign mode in hopes of steadying Democrats' fortunes. They want to avoid having the Virginia race seen as a test of Obama, who was elected in an electoral landslide just a year ago and has campaigned for Deeds.
"Instead, the White House chose New Jersey as the final destination for Obama's political travel this cycle. It borders presidential must-win Pennsylvania — Air Force One landed in Philadelphia to deliver Obama here.
"Obama's team already is looking ahead at next year's election, describing Tuesday's gubernatorial races in New Jersey and Virginia as a barometer his Republican opponents would cite in 2010. Thirty-seven governorships are up for grabs and more than a third of the Senate is on the ballot with every member of the House. On Wednesday, he heads to Wisconsin, which will elect a governor next year."
Meantime, write Politico's Jim VandeHei and Alex Isenstadt, "The conservative coup in upstate New York did much more than lay bare the power of conservative activists: It exposed how little control GOP officials hold over this surging and formidable political movement.
"In the wake of conservatives' role in forcing liberal Republican Dede Scozzafava out of Tuesday's special election in New York's 23rd District, GOP officials are trying to make it seem as if they are helping to stoke the passion — and can harness it to upend President Barack Obama and Democrats. They didn't — and they can't.
"Many of the activists who helped knock out Scozzafava told POLITICO that the passion is building despite — and sometimes to spite — Republican leaders in Washington.
"'I don't give a crap about party,' said Jennifer Bernstone, a tea party organizer for Central New York 912, which helped to lead the anti-Scozzafava charge. 'Grass-roots activists don't care about party.'
Says Everett Wilkinson, a tea party organizer in Florida: 'We are not going to allow our [movement] to be stolen by the GOP or by any political party.'"
However, in New England, the Boston Globe's Susan Milligan sees a potential rebirth of GOP moderates.
"New England's moderate Republicans, shoved out of power by two Democratic waves of anti-George W. Bush fervor, are scrambling to make a 2010 comeback, making early bids for congressional seats that GOP leaders say are critical to taking back majorities in the House and Senate.
"In next year's midterm elections, former representative Charlie Bass is exploring a run for his old New Hampshire seat, while his fellow Republican, former attorney general Kelly Ayotte, who was reappointed by a Democratic governor, is expected to draw bipartisan support for a Senate run, should she win the GOP primary in New Hampshire.
"Rob Simmons, a former moderate Republican US representative from Connecticut, is seeking the nomination to challenge embattled Senator Chris Dodd, a Democrat.
"In other Northeast states, too, Republicans see opportunities: Representative Mike Castle, a Republican, is running for the Delaware Senate seat once held by Vice President Joe Biden, and moderates are lining up for runs in upstate New York and Pennsylvania."
"Debate in the House is expected to begin this week, and the Senate will soon take up its version. Democratic leaders and senior White House officials are sounding increasingly confident that Mr. Obama will sign legislation overhauling the nation's health care system — a goal that has eluded American presidents for decades…
"The bills have advanced further than many lawmakers expected. Five separate measures are now pared down to two. But the legislative progress has come at a price. In the absence of specific guidance from the White House, it has moved ahead in fits and starts. From here on, the challenges will only grow more difficult.
"In the House, where leaders have vowed to pass a bill by Nov. 11, a fight over abortion coverage could still imperil the legislation, and Mr. Obama could lose some votes from liberals upset that the bill includes a weakened 'public option,' a government insurance plan to compete with the private sector. Mr. Obama, trying to keep progressives in line, met with them Thursday night in the White House Roosevelt Room."
"Republicans are preparing an alternative health-care bill to Democratic legislation, House Republican Leader John Boehner said, marking a shift in strategy as the full House is set to begin debate on the issue this week," reports the Wall Street Journal's Greg Hitt.
"Mr. Boehner said Sunday the Republican bill would extend health-insurance coverage to 'millions' of Americans but wouldn't try to match the scope of the House Democratic bill unveiled last week. The Democratic legislation, if passed, is estimated to expand coverage to more than 30 million Americans now without insurance. Its estimated gross cost is $1.055 trillion over 10 years.
"'What we do is we try to make the current system work better,' Mr. Boehner, of Ohio, said on CNN's 'State of the Nation.' The GOP plan would likely be less costly to taxpayers and involve less government intrusion into the private sector. Mr. Boehner said the bill would take "a step-by-step approach" to expanding coverage."
Associated Press' Stephen Ohlemacher, "Health care plan hits rich with big tax increases": "The typical family would be spared higher taxes from the House Democratic plan to overhaul health care, and their low-income neighbors could come out ahead.
"Their wealthy counterparts, however, face big tax increases that could eventually hit future generations of taxpayers who are less wealthy.
"The bill is funded largely from a 5.4 percent tax on individuals making more than $500,000 a year and couples making more than $1 million, starting in 2011. The tax increase would hit only 0.3 percent of tax filers, raising $460.5 billion over the next 10 years, according to congressional estimates.
"But unlike other income tax rates, the new tax would not be indexed for inflation. As incomes rise over time because of inflation, more families — and more small business owners — would be hit by the tax."
LA Times' Kim Geiger and James Oliphant, "Reader questions on House healthcare bill"
"Karzai's challenger, former Foreign Minister Abdullah Abdullah, dropped out of the race Sunday because he said the vote would not be free or fair.
"Independent Election Commission chairman Azizullah Lodin announced Karzai victor during a news conference in Kabul.
"The chief electoral officer on the Karzai-appointed Independent Election Commission, Daoud Ali Najafi, confirmed the weekend runoff had been canceled but he gave no details. Another senior official on the commission also confirmed the second round was been called off.
"The news came hours after U.N. Secretary-General Ban Ki-moon arrived in Kabul on a surprise visit, as international pressure mounted for a quick resolution to the country's electoral turmoil. Kazai and Abdullah had been in talks about the possibility of a power-sharing deal."
New York Times' David E. Sanger, "With Karzai, U.S. Faces Weak Partner in Time of War"
5247156FOREIGN POLICY: Washington Post's Scott Wilson, "Shared interests define Obama's world": "President Obama is applying the same tools to international diplomacy that he once used as a community organizer on Chicago's South Side, constructing appeals to shared interests and attempting to bring the government's conduct in line with its ideals. Obama's approach to the world as a community of nations, more alike than different in outlook and interest, has elevated America's standing abroad and won him the Nobel Peace Prize. But on the farthest-reaching U.S. foreign policy challenges, he is struggling to translate his own popularity into American influence, even with allies that have celebrated his break from the Bush administration's emphasis on military strength, unilateral action and personal chemistry."
New York Times' Steven Erlanger, "Europe Still Likes Obama, but Doubt Creeps In": "The election of Barack Obama as president seemed to most Europeans to be unadulterated good news, marking an end to the perceived unilateralism and indifference to allied views of former President George W. Bush. But nine months into Mr. Obama's presidency, trans-Atlantic relations are again clouded by doubts. Europe and the United States remain at least partly out of sync on Afghanistan, the Middle East, Iran and climate change."
Wall Street Journal's Jay Solomon, "Clinton Reasserts Her Role in U.S. Foreign Policy": "U.S. Secretary of State Hillary Clinton used a diplomatic swing across the greater Middle East to reassert her role in foreign policy even as the trip exposed the strategic challenges facing the Obama administration's overseas agenda. Mrs. Clinton, during her first 10 months atop the State Department, has appeared at times a marginal player on a national-security team dominated by special diplomatic envoys and President Barack Obama himself. ... Over the past week, however, the secretary of state's visits to Pakistan, the Persian Gulf and Israel inserted her on the front lines of a seemingly worsening security environment in the regions."
ALSO:
Wall Street Journal's Jonathan Weisman, "Democrats' Quiet Changes Pile Up"
Washington Post's Paul Kane, "Document sheds light on ethics probe in Congress"
Washington Post's Juliet Eilperin, "Climate bill faces hurdles in Senate"
McClatchy Newspapers' Erika Bolstad, "Tired of Sarah Palin? Authors are hoping the answer's 'No'"