Oscar Surprises In The Cards?

With Oscar nominations being announced Thursday, many wonder if Heath Ledger will win best supporting actor or if this will be the year for Kate Winslet or Mickey Rourke.

Tom O'Neil, a writer for the Los Angeles Times and its awards' Web site, The Envelope, shared his predictions with Early Show co-anchor Julie Chen.

"What is the mood going into this Oscar season?" Chen asked.

"Finally, we have an upbeat exciting year! You remember the last Oscars. Come on, there was a writer's strike, the movies were all bleak, like 'There Will Be Blood,' and 'No Country for Old Men.' There were no stars. This year we've got all these A-list stars. We've got Kate and Leo and Clint. Both halves of Brangelina and exciting movies like 'Slumdog Millionaire,' O'Neil said.

"The Dark Knight" is a strong contender, but will the summer blockbuster be nominated for best picture?

"Yes. I think we know four of the five best picture nominees, I think we know, 'Slum Dog Millionaire,' 'The Curious Case of Benjamin Button,' 'Frost/Nixon' and 'Milk.' The question is that fifth slot. 'Can Batman do what no superhero movie has ever done, which is get a nomination for best picture?' It made the second most money in film history. It deserves it. But they are such snobs at the Oscars, will they let it in?" he said.

According to O'Neil, there could be other contenders if "The Dark Knight" doesn't get that fifth nomination slot, such as "Gran Torino" with Clint Eastwood and "The Reader" with Kate Winslet.

O'Neil said "WALL-E" has an outside shot for a nomination. "Only one animated film has ever been nominated for best picture, and that was 'Beauty and the Beast.'"

With Ledger's stellar performance playing the Joker in "The Dark Knight," his chances of getting best supporting actor are good, but there is no guarantee.

"He is a lock to get nominated. But don't assume simply because he's so prominent and because and there's the sentiment behind him that he's going win. At the Oscars, only one person ever won from the grave and that was Peter Finch for 'Network' and he died a month after his nomination. Heath Ledger has been gone a year and you can look at equivalent stars like James Dean who died young and tragic, this great heroic star. He lost twice posthumously. So did Spencer Tracy. I think he will win, but sometimes in Hollywood, it's out of sight, out of mind," O'Neil admitted.

One thing that viewers can count on is surprises tomorrow.

"You always have surprises at the Oscars. We could see some weird things like 'WALL-E' getting in for best picture. We could see Debra Winger get nominated in the supporting slot for 'Rachel Getting Married.' She only really has one scene in the movie, but it could happen," he said.

It may be two-time Golden Globe Award-winning Kate Winslet's year.

"I sure hope so, the poor dear is only 33 years old and she has lost five times if she loses again, she will tie the record held by Thelma Ritter and Deborah Kerr as the biggest losing actress in history. She's got two strong roles here. The question is 'which one or both will she be nominated for?' That's the problem because they are both lead roles and she is trying to claim that the role in 'The Reader' is supporting, but Oscar nominees can put you wherever they want," O'Neil admitted.

With Mickey Rourke reviving his career after many tumultuous years with a Golden Globe win for best performance by an actor in a motion picture - drama, many are wondering if this will be his year as well.

"I think it is," O'Neil said. "Sean Penn had the early momentum, but watch out for Mickey!"