Off-Year Elections: Just Like Preseason Games

If you believe everything you read, next Tuesday's gubernatorial elections in Virginia and New Jersey and the special congressional election in upstate New York will be not only be a status-check for voters' moods about President Obama, but they will be predictors of what will happen in 2010 and 2012.

In reality, however, while the results of these elections will provide plenty of data for both parties as they look to the future, it's a stretch to call them bellwethers of future elections.

Next week's contests are like preseason NFL games: you'll get a sense of how your team looks right now with an opportunity to analyze the results and make adjustments for the future. But an undefeated record - or even a mixed one - in off-year 2009 (or in preseason football) doesn't necessarily reflect what the regular-season record will look like.

(AP)

Until this week, a common theory is that because Virginia is now a true purple state (Democrats have won statewide races consistently since 2001, Mr. Obama was the first Democrat to win there since 1964 in a presidential election), somehow the race between Democrat Creigh Deeds (at left in the picture) and Republican Bob McDonnell (at right) is a referendum on the president.

Well, a CBS News. If "President Obama has trouble transferring popularity when he's not on the ballot, he really can't generate coattails." Obama Invokes "Cousin Pookie" to Help Va. DemVa. Dem for Gov. Seeks Final Week SurgeIn New Jersey, the almost unanimous feeling is that the race there is a referendum on unpopular Democratic Gov. Jon Corzine (at left in the picture) and his handling of the state's economy rather than a gauge of what's going on nationally. If Corzine wins, it is most likely due to the state's Democratic voting tendencies, as well as his huge money advantage, his non-stop TV ads criticizing Republican Chris Christie (at center) and the insurgent campaign of Chris Daggett (at right) taking votes away from Christie.

If both Christie in New Jersey and McDonnell in Virginia win, expect vocal celebrations from the Republican Party and maybe some swagger suggesting that the Democrats are slipping.

Former George W. Bush adviser Karl Rove suggested the worst for Democrats in his Wall Street Journal column Thursday: "Tuesday's election will provide the most tangible evidence so far of how strong a backlash is building—and just how frightened centrist Democrats should be of 2010. For Republicans, it looks as if hope and change are on the way."

In reality, while Republicans will undoubtedly be energized, Democrats still have a year to fire up their voters to prevent Republican gains in 2010.

But if they lose on Tuesday, there will be major warning signs for the Democrats, political analyst Stu Rothenberg tells CBS News.

"There's a lot of concern, are Democrats really going to be that excited? Are Democratic groups, who turned out two years ago - African-Americans, young people - are they going to turn out in the midterms"

Corzine Gains Momentum in Tight N.J. Race
Has Corzine Pulled Ahead?
Can Obama Help Corzine in New Jersey?
By the Numbers: Election Trends and Demographics
Washington Unplugged: An interview with Chris Daggett

(CBS/AP)

The positioning of conservative groups and potential 2012 presidential candidates behind Hoffman is creating the buzz that if Hoffman defeats Scozzafava and Democrat Bill Owens (at left) then the party will automatically move to the right.

While there will be some repercussions from the outcome in NY-23, it might be a stretch to presume that the result will solely define the direction of the entire Republican party.

It seems the GOP thought they had the right idea in choosing the moderate Scozzafava as their nominee; the district was held by a moderate Republican, current Army Secretary John McHugh, for years, and Mr. Obama won the district in 2008 with 52 percent of the vote. In trying to attract Democrats and independents that voted for Obama, however, the GOP may have overcompensated by picking the pro-same-sex marriage, pro-abortion rights Scozzafava and underestimated the ire it would raise among the GOP base.

Now, because there was no primary for this special election, the moderate Scozzafava and conservative Hoffman - and their supporters - are fighting their ideological fight in the general election, creating a larger-than-life battle and a possibly overblown reading of the results.

These intraparty fights are normally waged during primaries (moderate Charlie Crist vs. conservative Marco Rubio in Florida's 2010 U.S. Senate race is a perfect example of this) and if, consistently, a conservative emerges over a moderate in next year's primaries, then an argument can be made that moderates might be done for in the GOP.

Regardless, conservatives will surely crow loudly about any success Hoffman has on Tuesday, either if he wins outright or comes in second over Scozzafava.

Don't expect the GOP to instantaneously turn right; instead, they'll most likely continue in their period of soul-searching after huge defeats in 2006 and 2008, regardless of what happens in NY-23 on Tuesday.

The conservative wing's post-election crowing, however will no doubt rattle many Republicans, resulting in plenty of second-guessing about what kind of candidates to support as they move towards the 2010 midterms.

An Inside Look at Next Week's N.Y. Special Election
Palin Snubs Republican Candidate in House Race
Pawlenty Backs Conservative Doug Hoffman in N.Y. House Race
Fred Thompson Stars in Ad for Conservative House Candidate