Joe Biden Fights For Survival In Iowa

This story was written by CBSNews.com political reporter Brian Montopoli.

"Everybody tells me that [voters are] more concerned about strictly domestic issues," Joe Biden, chairman of the Senate Foreign Relations Committee, told CBSNews.com.

But Biden argues that voters understand that "everything they care about domestically is affected by what's happening out there."

"I think they're pretty smart," he said.

With Hillary Clinton, John Edwards, and Barack Obama firmly entrenched as the Democratic frontrunners - and enjoying the fundraising and media coverage such status affords them - Biden's presidential campaign has reached a critical point.

Along with fellow second-tier Democratic candidates Chris Dodd and Bill Richardson, Biden is now making what could be a last stand in Iowa. Like Dodd and Richardson, he has been campaigning almost exclusively here in the run-up to the caucuses.

His aim? A finish that allows him to stay in the race.

"We need to finish a strong fourth in Iowa," says John Marttila, a senior advisor to Biden. "If we stay in the game and keep the campaign together through January, we are convinced that Joe Biden will become an increasingly attractive candidate to voters."

Political observers have been focused on how the outcome of the caucuses will affect the top three Democrats, but barring an Iowa disaster, all three will likely be able to keep their campaigns running through New Hampshire and beyond. The second tier candidates may not be so lucky.

"These top three have enough legs going into caucus night that they're likely to stay bunched up," says David Wilhelm, the former chair of the Democratic National Committee and a senior Biden advisor. "The Iowa caucuses may have an indeterminate conclusion [for them]. The winnowing that may occur is in the second tier."

A Democratic presidential debate is scheduled for Saturday in New Hampshire, and the second tier Democratic candidates, including Dennis Kucinich, will be excluded if they do not poll at least five percent support nationally or in the state. The only way around the requirement is a finish in the top four in Iowa. Particularly for Biden, who generally does well in debates, that fact makes at least a fourth place finish even more crucial.

Biden's events don't have the spectacle of those of the three frontrunners - the crowds are smaller, the music gets played through a laptop, and the candidate pulls up not in a bus but a sport utility vehicle. But while Biden has a not-undeserved reputation for being long-winded - a half-hour after he began a question and answer session with potential caucus-goers in Newton, he had only taken three questions - his stump speech has been getting heads nodding.

"Imagine the person you've picked to caucus for," the Delaware senator told roughly 150 people at a Newton community center on Monday. "…Are they prepared at this moment to know what to do in Pakistan? Are they prepared - at this moment - to know what they would do in the war in Iraq? Not generally say I want to get the troops out, but how. And what's going to be left behind."

On Tuesday, Biden criticized Clinton for suggesting Pakistani President Pervez Musharraf "wishes to stand for election." The uncoming elections in Pakistan are for parliament. "There are good people running," Biden said, after referencing Clinton. "But to say Musharraf is up for election! Musharraf was elected - fairly or unfairly - president six months ago. It's about a parliamentary election!"

Mary Harris of Story City attended a Clinton event last week, but not because she supports the former first lady: Harris needed too settle on a second choice in case Biden is not viable at her caucus location. (Under Iowa's arcane caucus rules, if a Democratic candidate gets less than a certain level of support at a caucus - the threshold is usually 15 percent of attendees - his supporters must choose another candidate.)

"He's got the experience, foreign affairs experience," she said. "He has the heart, the gut, and good morals. He's just an overall good guy."

With the average Iowa caucus-goer more than 60 years old, Biden is hoping his long tenure in the Senate and foreign policy experience will resonate enough to help him outpace Richardson, who polls suggest is his primary competitor for a fourth-place finish. He has visited 94 counties in Iowa, often with his extended family; in Newton, Biden's 90-year-old mother sat to his right as the candidate made his pitch.

Biden's success may ultimately come down to how his support is distributed, thanks to the unique rules of the caucuses. He and Richardson both poll around 5 percent in the state - Richardson has a slight edge - but they need their support to be concentrated in certain precincts so that their supporters aren't forced to choose another candidate.

Considering what's at stake, the number of voters the second-tier candidates are fighting for is disconcertingly small. They could take fourth place with, say, just seven percent of the Democratic vote. And since there will be an estimated 150,000 Democrats caucusing in Iowa Thursday night, that means they could only need about 10,000 votes - so long as they are distributed across the state just the right way.

The small size of the electorate, and the unpredictability it creates, does give Biden and his rivals a real chance to exceed expectations and keep their long-shot presidential bids alive. Asked what his goals are Monday, Biden, who is often mentioned as a potential cabinet member for one of the three frontrunners, cut off the questioner.

"To win," he said. "My goal is to win."
By Brian Montopoli