In courting women, Romney camp bets on the economy
With just 15 days until Election Day and most polls showing a dead heat between President Obama and Mitt Romney, Democrats and Republicans have found common ground on all of about two matters: The race is close, and women voters will play a huge role in determining who comes out on top.
As Romney attempts to close in on Mr. Obama's advantage among women, his campaign is banking on the notion that a crucial sliver of females will be voting on economic issues -- and in favor of Romney's business record -- in a hard-hit economy. The Obama campaign, which has for months been relentlessly highlighting ongoing debates over social issues like abortion, contraception, and health care, is doing everything in its power to undermine that effort.
Whichever team is able to reach more women has a pretty good chance of seeing their candidate elected next month.
"It's the ballgame," says Democratic strategist Mary Anne Walsh.
Defining the debate
Democrats have long had an edge when it comes to female voters: The last time a Republican candidate won the women's vote was in 1988, when George H. W. Bush squeaked out a 1-point lead over Michael Dukakis. In 2008, Mr. Obama enjoyed a 13-point advantage over John McCain with the female vote, besting him 56-43 percent. Currently, the national and many any state polls show a gender gap favoring Mr. Obama to varying degrees -- a new Quinnipiac/CBS News survey of Ohio, for instance, shows the president holding on to a double-digit lead among women -- but a couple of polls have shown that gap may be narrowing.
Whether or not that's true has proven difficult to measure thus far, and the Obama campaign insists any slimming of the president's lead among women is a reflection of a general tightening of the race. But regardless of the numbers, it's undeniable that both campaigns are putting every imaginable effort into casting their candidate as the one who would better serve women.
For the Obama campaign, that means touting the president's record on women's issues -- with a strong focus on health care-oriented topics -- while highlighting Romney's conflicting positions on reproductive rights, contraceptive care, and pre-existing conditions as evidence that the candidate's pitch to women is disingenuous pandering.
On Friday, the Obama campaign released a new TV ad, "Seen," showcasing a clip of Romney saying he'd be "delighted" to sign a bill that would ban all abortions; a week earlier, it released an ad featuring a video of Romney promising to defund Planned Parenthood.
On the trail, the president has been aggressively targeting Romney for what he's casting as purposefully misleading views on abortion and contraceptive rights. On Friday, he facetiously diagnosed his rival with "Romnesia" - a condition wherein, in his words, "you can't seem to remember" where you stand on certain issues.
"Mitt Romney has run as the ideal Tea Party candidate, severely conservative for the last six years running for president and in the last two weeks of this campaign, he's suddenly moving to the middle," said Stephanie Cutter, a top Obama campaign aide, in a Sunday appearance on CBS' "Face the Nation." " What about all those policies that he declared?"
The Romney campaign has attempted to blunt the force of these attacks, releasing an ad clarifying that Romney would allow abortions in cases of rape, incest, and if the life of the mother was in danger. In the second presidential debate, he also argued that he doesn't believe "employers should tell someone whether they could have contraceptive care of not," although he has firmly expressed support for a measure that says employees shouldn't be required to provide free contraceptive care to their employees.
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Broadly, however, his campaign's efforts to build support among women reflect the philosophy that those struggling financially will vote on jobs, not abortion.
"Across the country we are hosting roundtables and town hall meetings with women to talk about the issues most important to themselves, their businesses and their families," said Courtney Johnson, Women's Coalitions Director for the Romney campaign, in an email. "We are making sure that women everywhere are hearing Mitt Romney and Paul Ryan's plan to restore America as the best place in the world for a woman to find a job, start a business, and raise a family. What you see in the polls is this message resonating."
Indeed, in the Romney campaign's recent abortion-related ad, the featured woman says that while the abortion issue is "important" to her, she's "more concerned about the debt our children will be left with" -- a message the campaign no doubt hopes will resonate with women who see the ad.
"Mitt Romney is pro-life, with the exceptions he's laid out, so let's be honest - it's not like he's going to be able to go out there and campaign on abortion. That's just a reality," said Republican strategist Trey Hardin. "Barack Obama can campaign on [social issues such as abortion]. The social issues Romney is going to be speaking about to women are about creating an economic environment where men and women can compete equally."
That strategy, Republicans say, will boost Romney enough among women to give him an overall edge, not only because of his advantage among white men, but also because many undecided women voters are in a lower income bracket and thus more likely to be financially underwater.
"In this economic environment, jobs, inflation, the price of a gallon of milk and a gallon of gas outweigh issues like contraception," said Republican pollster Chris Wilson. "I think the best thing that Obama could do right now is... to come up with an economic plan that is targeted toward women."
Can Democrats take back the economic issue?
Part of the Republican calculus on this issue is a basic assumption that Romney has the edge on economic issues, and that the president's ability to appeal to voters on this subject is undermined by what the campaign casts as an insufficient economic recovery.
Mr. Obama, however, is attempting to cut into that narrative. In addition to reiterating their longstanding argument that women's health issues are economic issues, the campaign is attempting to cast doubt on Romney's record supporting equal rights in the workforce. The president and his surrogates have recently seized on Romney's muddled history of support for the Lilly Ledbetter Fair Pay Act, and immediately pounced on comments he made during the second presidential debate about using "binders full of women" as a way to find qualified women to hire. The Obama campaign is also re-upping its attacks on Romney's records at Bain Capital, which many say proved effective over the summer.
Republican and Democratic strategists alike predicted the "binders" meme could do significant damage to Romney's prospects if Democrats find a way to make it stick, and his campaign swiftly announced a "We Know Mitt Tour," featuring women who worked with Romney during his tenure as governor, in an effort to preempt future fallout.
"If you're ever in a situation where you're being lampooned on the nightly shows, or things are hitting comedy and pop culture, it's going to move through the public consciousness much faster," said Democratic strategist Celinda Lake. "I think that comment just struck women as really odd. We're not binders, we're real people, and we've been trying to knock on the glass ceiling for a long time. I think that really stuck."
If women are turned off by the comment, Wilson says, it could start "the domino effect that can move the needle enough to win or lose the election."
"A one- or two-point impact could be the difference between winning and losing," he added.
The turnout factor
As much as the battle for undecided voters may come down to which and how many women prioritize social issues over the economy, turnout among women will be equally critical.
"The more women who vote, the more likely they are to vote Democratic," said Marsh. "As we're closing in on the two-week mark, this is all about turnout."
While women make up a large proportion of undecided voters, a huge chunk of females -- younger, unmarried, minority, and suburban-dwelling females -- are reliably Democratic. Lake, however, points to a huge enthusiasm gap among this group between 2008 and 2010: 11 million unmarried women who voted in 2008 did not vote in 2010, she said, and 6.6 million younger women who voted in 2008 did not vote in 2010. Getting those women to the polls in 2012 is a major Democratic priority.
"You don't have to persuade these women who to vote for," said Lake. "You do have to persuade them to vote. They've been very hard-hit in this economy. The answer is to offer something very specific to them that they believe will make a different in their families' lives."
At the end of the day, the Obama campaign's expansive ground game and sophisticated turnout efforts could be the make-or-break factor, says Marsh.
"A good ground game is worth three to five points on Election Day," she argued. "I don't think Romney has the ability to turn out voters anywhere near the way the Obama campaign can. Now he has to really motivate them to do so."
Ultimately, however, Democrats concede that even turnout will get the campaign only so far.
"Turnout can make a difference but it can't make up for losing independent women," said Lake. "So we have to win over both."
