Bush Grabs Electoral Vote Lead
With less than a week until Election Day, Republican George W. Bush has pulled ahead of Democrat Al Gore in the latest CBS News Electoral College count.
Bush has the lead in 24 states worth a total of 209 votes; Gore leads in 12 states (plus the District of Columbia) with 182 electoral votes. The remaining 14 states, with a total of 147 electoral votes, are considered too close to call; 270 votes are needed to claim victory in the presidential election. [Check out CBS News.com's interactive
electoral map.]
Of the states still on the bubble, the richest prizes include four from the Midwest – Michigan, Minnesota, Missouri and Wisconsin – plus Pennsylvania, Tennessee and Florida, the biggest battleground of all. But with the race so tight, even tiny swing states like New Mexico, West Virginia and New Hampshire could be decisive. As the clock spins forward to Nov. 7, expect to see the candidates spend much of their time, and most of their advertising dollars, in this handful of all-important tossup states.
| State By State How the states are leaning in the presidential election: Bush: Alabama, Alaska, Arizona, Colorado, Georgia, Idaho, Indiana, Kansas, Kentucky, Louisiana, Mississippi, Montana, Nebraska, Nevada, North Carolina, North Dakota, Ohio, Oklahoma, South Carolina, South Dakota, Texas, Utah, Virginia, Wyoming. Gore: California, Connecticut, Delaware, District Of Columbia, Hawaii, Illinois, Maryland, Massachusetts, New Jersey, New York, Rhode Island, Vermont, Washington. Tossup: Arkansas, Florida, Iowa, Maine, Michigan, Minnesota, Missouri, New Hampshire, New Mexico, Oregon, Pennsylvania, Tennessee, West Virginia, Wisconsin. Totals Source: CBS News |
Presidential elections are made up of 51 separate ballots in each of the 50 states plus the District of Columbia. The winner in each state claims all of that state's delegates to the Electoral College, which is composed of 538 members – one for each of the 535 members of Congress, plus three for the District of Columbia.
Four years ago, President Clinton defeated Republican nominee Sen. Bob Dole by 8 percentage points in the popular vote, which translated into more than a two-to-one advantage in the Electoral College, 379 to 159.
The most recent shifts in the electoral map favor Bush. CBS News now sees Pennsylvania, formerly a Gore state, as a tossup. With its 23 electoral votes, the Keystone Sate becomes the second most valuable battleground remaining, and would constitute a huge loss for Gore. The Bush camp also got some good news out of Nevada, which has been shifted from a tossup to a Bush-leaning state.
Bush is also making a late push in California, where polls show Gore's lead in the Golden State has dwindled to single digits.
But the Texas governor's White House ambitions would be seriously damaged without a win in Florida, the fourth richest state on the electoral map with 25 votes. Once thought to be a safe bet for the Republican candidate, whose brother Jeb is the Sunshine State's governor, Florida is now the campaign's ground zero.
Bush's strength is in the South, where he's hoping for a sweep. For his Southern strategy to succeed, he'll have to carry President Clinton's home state of Arkansas and Gore's home state of Tennessee, as well as Florida. Bush is also favored in a number of Western and Midwestern states including Arizona, Colorado, Wyoming, Idaho, Montana, North and South Dakota, Indiana, Kansas and Nebraska.
Gore, meanwhile, has a big edge in the East, where he's expected to bring home such valuable electoral trophies as New York, New Jersey, and Massachusetts. He also has the inside track on the campaign's grand prize – California, with its 54 electoral votes – as well as Illinois, the top prize in the Midwest, with 22 electoral votes. But Gore's fortunes fade west of the Mississippi, where he comes up dry until he hits the Pacific coast, where, in addition to California, he's hoping for wins in Oregon and Washington state.
If there's one state the vice president desperately needs, it's Michigan, with its 18 electoral votes. Long a bellwether of national voting trends, Michigan has been skewing slightly in Gore's favor, but a strong presence of swing voters makes it anybody's race.
Election watchers may also want to pay special attention to one of the nation's smallest states: Delaware. The First State, currently leaning towards Gore, has selected the winner in every presidential race since 1948.