Bristol-Myers' Damp Squib: Diabetes Drug Onglyza Nets Only $6M in Q4
When Bristol-Myers Squibb (BMY) and AstraZeneca (AZN) won FDA approval for their new jointly marketed diabetes drug, Onglyza, in July 2009, analysts were bullish. Twenty-four million Americans have diabetes and they spend $5 billion annually on treatments. Merck (MRK)'s Januvia, a similar drug, makes $1.4 billion a year in sales. One analyst estimated revenues at $1 billion a year.
Six months down the line, however, that's looking decidedly optimistic. AZ recorded only $11 million from Onglyza for the last six months of 2009, and BMS saw only $24 million.
It's one of three recent drugs for which blockbuster success was predicted but isn't happening. Eli Lilly (LLY)'s blood thinner Effient notched only $22 million in sales since launch, and Sanofi-Aventis (SNY)'s heart drug Multaq garnered only €25 million.
Much of Onglyza's sales were initial stocking of the new product. In the last three months of '09, BMS and AZ made only $6 million -- combined. A recent note from analysts at Jefferies & Co. estimates that AZ's revenue this year will be about $76 million (or just $19 million per quarter). Sales could top out at $363 million for AZ ... in 2014, the note said. Tony Butler, an analyst with Barclays Capital in New York, told Bloomberg:
Under any scenario, $4 million in sales would be poor.
- Related:
- Sanofi Says Heart Drug Multaq Is "On Track"; Numbers Suggest It's Derailed
- Effient and Onglyza Launches "Sluggish"; Multaq More Hopeful