Battleground Tracker: all our latest midterm race ratings

Last Updated Oct 16, 2018 1:14 PM EDT

In partnership with YouGov, the CBS News 2018 Battleground Tracker polls voters across the country, focusing on competitive congressional races. 

We use a statistical model to come up with a rating for each race and to estimate how many seats each party is favored to win, incorporating both what voters tell us and the characteristics of their district. 

To estimate races, CBS News uses one of four ratings:

  • TOSS UP: neither party has a distinct advantage
  • EDGE: one party has a small advantage, either in recent polling or a slight structural advantage
  • LEAN: one party has an advantage, polling with a consistent lead
  • LIKELY: one party has a clear advantage, polling consistently outside the margin of error

Check back here often for our latest ratings of races across the country. 

And be sure to tune in Sunday for "Face the Nation" as we wonk out over all the latest results from the CBS News 2018 Battleground Tracker. 

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The Democratic lead has continued to grow in the race for the House. If the elections were held today, CBS News estimates Democrats would win 226 seats, as of October 14, 2018.

CBS News

Latest House ratings

Last updated October 16, 2018 (jump to Senate ratings)

Below descriptions of House districts adapted from "The Almanac of American Politics," as published online by National Journal.

Toss Up Races

  • CALIFORNIA 10
    Rating: TOSS UP
    Incumbent: Rep. Denham, Jeff (R)
    District: Central Valley, Modesto, Tracy
  • CALIFORNIA 39
    Rating: TOSS UP
    Incumbent: Rep. Royce, Ed (R) (not seeking re-election
    District: Northern Orange County, Fullerton, Yorba Linda 
  • CALIFORNIA 48
    Rating: TOSS UP
    Incumbent: Rep. Rohrabacher, Dana (R)
    District: Coastal Orange County, Huntington Beach 
  • FLORIDA 26
    Rating: TOSS UP
    Incumbent: Rep. Curbelo, Carlos (R)
    District: Homestead and the Florida Keys 
  • ILLINOIS 14
    Rating: TOSS UP
    Incumbent: Rep. Hultgren, Randy (R)
    District: Chicago Exurbs, Kendall County 
  • IOWA 3
    Rating: TOSS UP
    Incumbent: Rep. Young, David (R)
    District: Southwest, Des Moines 
  • MAINE 2
    Rating: TOSS UP
    Incumbent: Rep. Poliquin, Bruce (R)
    District: Northern Maine, Lewiston, Bangor 
  • MICHIGAN 8
    Rating: TOSS UP
    Incumbent: Rep. Bishop, Mike (R)
    District: Central, Lansing, Detroit Exurbs 
  • NEBRASKA 2
    Rating: TOSS UP
    Incumbent: Rep. Bacon, Don (R)
    District: Omaha 
  • NEW HAMPSHIRE 1
    Rating: TOSS UP
    Incumbent: Rep. Shea-Porter, Carol (D) (not seeking re-election
    District: Eastern New Hampshire, Manchester 
  • NEW JERSEY 3
    Rating: TOSS UP
    Incumbent: Rep. MacArthur, Tom (R)
    District: South Central, Pine Barrens 
  • NEW JERSEY 7
    Rating: TOSS UP
    Incumbent: Rep. Lance, Leonard (R)
    District: North Central 
  • NEW YORK 19
    Rating: TOSS UP
    Incumbent: Rep. Faso, John (R)
    District: Northern Hudson Valley, the Catskills 
  • NEW YORK 22
    Rating: TOSS UP
    Incumbent: Rep. Tenney, Claudia (R)
    District: Central, Utica, Binghamton 
  • NORTH CAROLINA 9
    Rating: TOSS UP
    Incumbent: Rep. Pittenger, Robert (R) (not seeking re-election)  
    District: Charlotte Suburbs 
  • OHIO 1
    Rating: TOSS UP
    Incumbent: Rep. Chabot, Steve (R)
    District: Cincinnati 
  • PENNSYLVANIA 1
    Rating: TOSS UP
    Incumbent: Rep. Fitzpatrick, Brian (R)
    District: South and Central Philadelphia 
  • TEXAS 7
    Rating: TOSS UP
    Incumbent: Rep. Culberson, John (R)
    District: West Houston and Suburbs 
  • TEXAS 32
    Rating: TOSS UP
    Incumbent: Rep. Sessions, Pete (R)
    District: North Dallas 
  • VIRGINIA 2
    Rating: TOSS UP
    Incumbent: Rep. Taylor, Scott (R)
    District: Hampton Roads, Virginia Beach, Part of Norfolk 
  • VIRGINIA 7
    Rating: TOSS UP
    Incumbent: Rep. Brat, Dave (R)
    District: Central, Richmond Suburbs  

Edge Democrat or Republican

  • ARKANSAS 2
    Rating: EDGE REPUBLICAN
    Incumbent: Rep. Hill, French (R)
    District: Central Arkansas, Little Rock 
  • CALIFORNIA 21
    Rating: EDGE REPUBLICAN
    Incumbent: Rep. Valadao, David (R)
    District: Central Valley, Kings County 
  • CALIFORNIA 25
    Rating: EDGE DEMOCRAT
    Incumbent: Rep. Knight, Steve (R)
    District: Southern California, Santa Clarita 
  • CALIFORNIA 45
    Rating: EDGE DEMOCRAT
    Incumbent: Rep. Walters, Mimi (R)
    District: Orange County, Irvine 
  • ILLINOIS 6
    Rating: EDGE DEMOCRAT
    Incumbent: Rep. Roskam, Peter (R)
    District: Chicago West Suburbs, Wheaton, Palatine 
  • ILLINOIS 13
    Rating: EDGE REPUBLICAN
    Incumbent: Rep. Davis, Rodney (R)
    District: Central Illinois, Champaign, Springfield 
  • KANSAS 2
    Rating: EDGE REPUBLICAN
    Incumbent: Rep. Jenkins, Lynn (R) (not seeking re-election
    District: Eastern, Topeka 
  • KANSAS 3
    Rating: EDGE DEMOCRAT
    Incumbent: Rep. Yoder, Kevin (R)
    District: Greater Kansas City 
  • KENTUCKY 6
    Rating: EDGE REPUBLICAN
    Incumbent: Rep. Barr, Andy (R)
    District: Central Kentucky, Lexington 
  • MICHIGAN 11
    Rating: EDGE DEMOCRAT
    Incumbent: Rep. Trott, Dave (R) (not seeking re-election)
    District: Detroit Suburbs, Livonia, Troy 
  • MINNESOTA 1
    Rating: EDGE REPUBLICAN
    Incumbent: Rep. Walz, Tim (D) (not seeking re-election
    District: South, Rochester 
  • MINNESOTA 2
    Rating: EDGE DEMOCRAT
    Incumbent: Rep. Lewis, Jason (R)
    District: Twin Cities' South Suburbs 
  • MINNESOTA 3
    Rating: EDGE DEMOCRAT
    Incumbent: Rep. Paulsen, Erik (R)
    District: Twin Cities' West Suburbs 
  • MINNESOTA 8
    Rating: EDGE REPUBLICAN
    Incumbent: Rep. Nolan, Rick (D) (not seeking re-election
    District: Northeast, Duluth 
  • WASHINGTON 8
    Rating: EDGE DEMOCRAT
    Incumbent: Rep. Reichert, David (R) (not seeking re-election
    District: East Seattle Suburbs, Auburn    

Lean Democrat or Republican

  • CALIFORNIA 49
    Rating: LEAN DEMOCRAT
    Incumbent: Rep. Issa, Darrell (R) (not seeking re-election)  
    District: San Diego County, San Clemente 
  • COLORADO 6
    Rating: LEAN DEMOCRAT
    Incumbent: Rep. Coffman, Mike (R)
    District: Denver Suburbs, Aurora 
  • FLORIDA 15
    Rating: LEAN REPUBLICAN
    Incumbent: Rep. Ross, Dennis (R) (not seeking re-election
    District: Central, Lakeland 
  • FLORIDA 18
    Rating: LEAN REPUBLICAN
    Incumbent: Rep. Mast, Brian (R)
    District: East Coast, Port St. Lucie, Jupiter 
  • GEORGIA 6
    Rating: LEAN REPUBLICAN
    Incumbent: Rep. Handel, Karen (R)
    District: Atlanta Suburbs, Sandy Springs, Roswell 
  • ILLINOIS 12
    Rating: LEAN REPUBLICAN
    Incumbent: Rep. Bost, Mike (R)
    District: Southwest Illinois, East St. Louis, Carbondale 
  • IOWA 1
    Rating: LEAN DEMOCRAT
    Incumbent: Rep. Blum, Rod (R)
    District: Northeast, Cedar Rapids, Dubuque 
  • IOWA 2
    Rating: LEAN DEMOCRAT
    Incumbent: Rep. Loebsack, David (D)
    District: Southeast, Davenport 
  • NEW JERSEY 2
    Rating: LEAN DEMOCRAT
    Incumbent: Rep. LoBiondo, Frank (R) (not seeking re-election
    District: South Jersey Shore, Atlantic City 
  • NEW JERSEY 11
    Rating: LEAN DEMOCRAT
    Incumbent: Rep. Frelinghuysen, Rodney (R) (not seeking re-election
    District: North New Jersey, Morris County 
  • NEVADA 3
    Rating: LEAN DEMOCRAT
    Incumbent: Rep. Rosen, Jacky (D) (not seeking re-election
    District: Las Vegas Suburbs, Henderson 
  • NEW MEXICO 2
    Rating: LEAN REPUBLICAN
    Incumbent: Rep. Pearce, Steve (R) (not seeking re-election)
    District: Southern New Mexico, Las Cruces 
  • NEW YORK 24
    Rating: LEAN REPUBLICAN
    Incumbent: Rep. Katko, John (R)
    District: Central, Syracuse 
  • NORTH CAROLINA 2
    Rating: LEAN REPUBLICAN
    Incumbent: Rep. Holding, George (R)
    District: Central, Fayetteville 
  • OHIO 10
    Rating: LEAN REPUBLICAN
    Incumbent: Rep. Turner, Michael (R)
    District: Dayton 
  • OHIO 12
    Rating: LEAN REPUBLICAN
    Incumbent: Rep. Balderson, Troy (R)
    District: Columbus Suburbs, Mansfield 
  • OHIO 14
    Rating: LEAN REPUBLICAN
    Incumbent: Rep. Joyce, David (R)
    District: Northeast, Ashtabula 
  • NORTH CAROLINA 13
    Rating: LEAN REPUBLICAN
    Incumbent: Rep. Budd, Ted (R)
    District: Eastern, Raleigh Suburbs 
  • PENNSYLVANIA 7
    Rating: LEAN DEMOCRAT
    Incumbent: Rep. Dent, Charlie (R) (not seeking re-election
    District: Philadelphia Suburbs, Delaware County 
  • PENNSYLVANIA 8
    Rating: LEAN DEMOCRAT
    Incumbent: Rep. Cartwright, Matt (D)
    District: Philadelphia Suburbs, Bucks County 
  • PENNSYLVANIA 10
    Rating: LEAN REPUBLICAN
    Incumbent: Rep. Perry, Scott (R)
    District: Northeast, Williamsport 
  • TEXAS 23
    Rating: LEAN REPUBLICAN
    Incumbent: Rep. Hurd, Will (R)
    District: Suburbs of San Antonio and El Paso 
  • TEXAS 31
    Rating: LEAN REPUBLICAN
    Incumbent: Rep. Carter, John (R)
    District: Central, Austin Suburbs, Killeen 
  • UTAH 4
    Rating: LEAN REPUBLICAN
    Incumbent: Rep. Love, Mia (R)
    District: Central, Southern Salt Lake City Suburbs 
  • VIRGINIA 10
    Rating: LEAN DEMOCRAT
    Incumbent: Rep. Comstock, Barbara (R)
    District: Northern Virginia, Leesburg, McLean 
  • WASHINGTON 3
    Rating: LEAN REPUBLICAN
    Incumbent: Rep. Herrera Beutler, Jaime (R)
    District: Southwest, Vancouver 
  • WASHINGTON 5
    Rating: LEAN REPUBLICAN
    Incumbent: Rep. McMorris Rodgers, Cathy (R)
    District: Eastern, Spokane 
  • WEST VIRGINIA 3
    Rating: LEAN REPUBLICAN
    Incumbent: Rep. Jenkins, Evan (R)
    District: Southern, Huntington    

Likely Democrat or Republican

  • ARIZONA 2
    Rating: LIKELY DEMOCRAT
    Incumbent: Rep. McSally, Martha (R) (not seeking re-election
    District: Southeast Arizona, Tucson 
  • FLORIDA 27
    Rating: LIKELY DEMOCRAT
    Incumbent: Rep. Ros-Lehtinen, Ileana (R) (not seeking re-election
    District: Southern Miami and Coral Gables 
  • PENNSYLVANIA 5
    Rating: LIKELY DEMOCRAT
    Incumbent: Rep. Meehan, Pat (R) (not seeking re-election
    District: North Central, State College 
  • PENNSYLVANIA 6
    Rating: LIKELY DEMOCRAT
    Incumbent: Rep. Costello, Ryan (R) (not seeking re-election
    District: Southeast, Chester County 
  • PENNSYLVANIA 17
    Rating: LIKELY DEMOCRAT
    Incumbent: Rep. Rothfus, Keith (R)
    District: Scranton, Wilkes-Barre

Latest Senate ratings

Last updated October 16, 2018 (jump to House ratings)

Toss Up Races

  • FLORIDA
    Rating: TOSS UP
    Incumbent: Sen. Bill Nelson (D) 
  • INDIANA
    Rating: TOSS UP
    Incumbent: Sen. Joe Donnelly (D) 
  • MISSOURI
    Rating: TOSS UP
    Incumbent: Sen. Claire McCaskill (D) 
  • NEVADA
    Rating: TOSS UP
    Incumbent: Sen. Dean Heller (R)  

Edge Democrat or Republican

  • ARIZONA
    Rating: EDGE DEMOCRAT
    Incumbent: Sen. Jeff Flake (R) (not seeking re-election
  • MONTANA
    Rating: EDGE DEMOCRAT
    Incumbent: Sen. Jon Tester (D) 
  • NORTH DAKOTA
    Rating: EDGE REPUBLICAN
    Incumbent: Sen. Heidi Heitkamp (D) 
  • WEST VIRGINIA
    Rating: EDGE DEMOCRAT
    Incumbent: Sen. Joe Manchin (D)  

Lean Democrat or Republican

  • MINNESOTA (SPECIAL)
    Rating: LEAN DEMOCRAT
    Incumbent: Sen. Tina Smith (D) 
  • OHIO
    Rating: LEAN DEMOCRAT
    Incumbent: Sen. Sherrod Brown (D) 
  • TENNESSEE
    Rating: LEAN REPUBLICAN
    Incumbent: Sen. Bob Corker (R) (not seeking re-election
  • TEXAS
    Rating: LEAN REPUBLICAN
    Incumbent: Sen. Ted Cruz (R)  

Likely Democrat or Republican

  • CALIFORNIA
    Rating: LIKELY DEMOCRAT
    Incumbent: Sen. Dianne Feinstein (D) 
  • CONNECTICUT
    Rating: LIKELY DEMOCRAT
    Incumbent: Sen. Chris Murphy (D) 
  • DELAWARE
    Rating: LIKELY DEMOCRAT
    Incumbent: Sen. Tom Carper (D) 
  • HAWAII
    Rating: LIKELY DEMOCRAT
    Incumbent: Sen. Mazie Hirono (D) 
  • MAINE
    Rating: LIKELY DEMOCRAT
    Incumbent: Sen. Angus King (D) 
  • MARYLAND
    Rating: LIKELY DEMOCRAT
    Incumbent: Sen. Ben Cardin (D) 
  • MASSACHUSETTS
    Rating: LIKELY DEMOCRAT
    Incumbent: Sen. Elizabeth Warren (D) 
  • MICHIGAN
    Rating: LIKELY DEMOCRAT
    Incumbent: Sen. Debbie Stabenow (D) 
  • MINNESOTA
    Rating: LIKELY DEMOCRAT
    Incumbent: Sen. Amy Klobuchar (D) 
  • MISSISSIPPI
    Rating: LIKELY REPUBLICAN
    Incumbent: Sen. Roger Wicker (R) 
  • MISSISSIPPI (SPECIAL)
    Rating: LIKELY REPUBLICAN
    Incumbent: Sen. Cindy Hyde-Smith (R) 
  • NEBRASKA
    Rating: LIKELY REPUBLICAN
    Incumbent: Sen. Deb Fischer (R) 
  • NEW JERSEY
    Rating: LIKELY DEMOCRAT
    Incumbent: Sen. Bob Menendez (D) 
  • NEW MEXICO
    Rating: LIKELY DEMOCRAT
    Incumbent: Sen. Martin Heinrich (D) 
  • NEW YORK
    Rating: LIKELY DEMOCRAT
    Incumbent: Sen. Kirsten Gillibrand (D) 
  • PENNSYLVANIA
    Rating: LIKELY DEMOCRAT
    Incumbent: Sen. Bob Casey (D) 
  • RHODE ISLAND
    Rating: LIKELY DEMOCRAT
    Incumbent: Sen. Sheldon Whitehouse (D) 
  • UTAH
    Rating: LIKELY REPUBLICAN
    Incumbent: Sen. Orrin Hatch (R) (not seeking re-election
  • VERMONT
    Rating: LIKELY DEMOCRAT
    Incumbent: Sen. Bernie Sanders (D) 
  • VIRGINIA
    Rating: LIKELY DEMOCRAT
    Incumbent: Sen. Tim Kaine (D) 
  • WASHINGTON
    Rating: LIKELY DEMOCRAT
    Incumbent: Sen. Maria Cantwell (D) 
  • WISCONSIN
    Rating: LIKELY DEMOCRAT
    Incumbent: Sen. Tammy Baldwin (D) 
  • WYOMING
    Rating: LIKELY REPUBLICAN
    Incumbent: Sen. John Barrasso (R)