Battleground Tracker: All our latest midterm race ratings

Last Updated Nov 5, 2018 9:26 PM EST

In partnership with YouGov, the CBS News 2018 Battleground Tracker polls voters across the country, focusing on competitive congressional races. 

We use a statistical model to come up with a rating for each race and to estimate how many seats each party is favored to win, incorporating both what voters tell us and the characteristics of their district. 

To estimate races, CBS News uses one of four ratings:

  • TOSS UP: neither party has a distinct advantage
  • EDGE: one party has a small advantage, either in recent polling or a slight structural advantage
  • LEAN: one party has an advantage, polling with a consistent lead
  • LIKELY: one party has a clear advantage, polling consistently outside the margin of error

Check back here often for our latest ratings of races across the country. 

And be sure to tune in Sunday for "Face the Nation" as we wonk out over all the latest results from the CBS News 2018 Battleground Tracker. 

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The Democratic lead has continued to grow in the race for the House. If the elections were held today, CBS News estimates Democrats would win 226 seats, as of October 14, 2018.

CBS News

Latest House ratings

Last updated November 5, 2018 (jump to Senate ratings)

Below descriptions of House districts adapted from "The Almanac of American Politics," as published online by National Journal.

Toss Up Races

  • CALIFORNIA 10
    Rating: TOSS UP
    Incumbent: Rep. Jeff Denham (R)
    District: Central Valley, Modesto, Tracy
  • CALIFORNIA 39
    Rating: TOSS UP
    Incumbent: Rep. Ed Royce (R) (not seeking re-election
    District: Northern Orange County, Fullerton, Yorba Linda 
  • CALIFORNIA 48
    Rating: TOSS UP
    Incumbent: Rep. Dana Rohrabacher (R)
    District: Coastal Orange County, Huntington Beach 
  • FLORIDA 26
    Rating: TOSS UP
    Incumbent: Rep. Carlos Curbelo (R)
    District: Homestead and the Florida Keys 
  • ILLINOIS 14
    Rating: TOSS UP
    Incumbent: Rep. Randy Hultgren (R)
    District: Chicago Exurbs, Kendall County 
  • IOWA 3
    Rating: TOSS UP
    Incumbent: Rep. David Young (R)
    District: Southwest, Des Moines 
  • MAINE 2
    Rating: TOSS UP
    Incumbent: Rep. Bruce Poliquin (R)
    District: Northern Maine, Lewiston, Bangor 
  • MICHIGAN 8
    Rating: TOSS UP
    Incumbent: Rep. Mike Bishop (R)
    District: Central, Lansing, Detroit Exurbs 
  • NEBRASKA 2
    Rating: TOSS UP
    Incumbent: Rep. Don Bacon (R)
    District: Omaha 
  • NEW JERSEY 3
    Rating: TOSS UP
    Incumbent: Rep. Tom MacArthur (R)
    District: South Central, Pine Barrens 
  • NEW JERSEY 7
    Rating: TOSS UP
    Incumbent: Rep. Leonard Lance (R)
    District: North Central 
  • NEW YORK 19
    Rating: TOSS UP
    Incumbent: Rep. John Faso (R)
    District: Northern Hudson Valley, the Catskills 
  • NEW YORK 22
    Rating: TOSS UP
    Incumbent: Rep. Claudia Tenney (R)
    District: Central, Utica, Binghamton 
  • NORTH CAROLINA 9
    Rating: TOSS UP
    Incumbent: Rep. Robert Pittenger (R) (not seeking re-election)  
    District: Charlotte Suburbs 
  • PENNSYLVANIA 1
    Rating: TOSS UP
    Incumbent: Rep. Brian Fitzpatrick (R)
    District: South and Central Philadelphia 
  • TEXAS 7
    Rating: TOSS UP
    Incumbent: Rep. John Culberson (R)
    District: West Houston and Suburbs 
  • TEXAS 32
    Rating: TOSS UP
    Incumbent: Rep. Pete Sessions (R)
    District: North Dallas 
  • VIRGINIA 2
    Rating: TOSS UP
    Incumbent: Rep. Scott Taylor (R)
    District: Hampton Roads, Virginia Beach, Part of Norfolk 
  • VIRGINIA 7
    Rating: TOSS UP
    Incumbent: Rep. Dave Brat (R)
    District: Central, Richmond Suburbs  

Edge Democrat or Republican

  • CALIFORNIA 25 
    Rating: EDGE DEMOCRAT
    Incumbent: Rep. Steve Knight (R) 
    District: Southern California, Santa Clarita 
  • CALIFORNIA 45
    Rating: EDGE DEMOCRAT
    Incumbent: Rep. Mimi Walters (R)
    District: Orange County, Irvine 
  • ILLINOIS 6
    Rating: EDGE DEMOCRAT
    Incumbent: Rep. Peter Roskam (R)
    District: Chicago West Suburbs, Wheaton, Palatine 
  • KANSAS 2
    Rating: EDGE REPUBLICAN
    Incumbent: Rep. Lynn Jenkins (R) (not seeking re-election
    District: Eastern, Topeka 
  • KENTUCKY 6
    Rating: EDGE REPUBLICAN
    Incumbent: Rep. Andy Barr (R)
    District: Central Kentucky, Lexington 
  • MINNESOTA 1
    Rating: EDGE REPUBLICAN
    Incumbent: Rep. Tim Walz (D) (not seeking re-election
    District: South, Rochester 
  • MINNESOTA 2
    Rating: EDGE DEMOCRAT
    Incumbent: Rep. Jason Lewis (R)
    District: Twin Cities' South Suburbs 
  • MINNESOTA 3
    Rating: EDGE DEMOCRAT
    Incumbent: Rep. Erik Paulsen (R)
    District: Twin Cities' West Suburbs 
  • NEW HAMPSHIRE 1 
    Rating: EDGE DEMOCRAT
    Incumbent: Rep. Carol Shea-Porter (D) (not seeking re-election
    District: Eastern New Hampshire, Manchester 
  • NEW MEXICO 2 
    Rating: EDGE REPUBLICAN 
    Incumbent: Rep. Steve Pearce (R) (not seeking re-election)
    District: Southern New Mexico, Las Cruces 
  • OHIO 1 
    Rating: EDGE REPUBLICAN
    Incumbent: Rep. Steve Chabot (R) 
    District: Cincinnati 
  • UTAH 4 
    Rating: EDGE REPUBLICAN
    Incumbent: Rep. Mia Love (R) 
    District: Central, Southern Salt Lake City Suburbs 
  • WASHINGTON 8
    Rating: EDGE DEMOCRAT
    Incumbent: Rep. David Reichert (R) (not seeking re-election
    District: East Seattle Suburbs, Auburn    

Lean Democrat or Republican

  • ARKANSAS 2 
    Rating: LEAN REPUBLICAN
    Incumbent: Rep. French Hill (R) 
    District: Central Arkansas, Little Rock 
  • CALIFORNIA 21 
    Rating: LEAN REPUBLICAN 
    Incumbent: Rep. David Valadao (R) 
    District: Central Valley, Kings County 
  • COLORADO 6
    Rating: LEAN DEMOCRAT
    Incumbent: Rep. Mike Coffman (R)
    District: Denver Suburbs, Aurora 
  • FLORIDA 15
    Rating: LEAN REPUBLICAN
    Incumbent: Rep. Dennis Ross (R) (not seeking re-election
    District: Central, Lakeland 
  • FLORIDA 27 
    Rating: LEAN DEMOCRAT 
    Incumbent: Rep. Ileana Ros-Lehtinen (R) (not seeking re-election
    District: Southern Miami and Coral Gables 
  • GEORGIA 6 
    Rating: LEAN REPUBLICAN
    Incumbent: Rep. Karen Handel (R)
    District: Atlanta Suburbs, Sandy Springs, Roswell 
  • ILLINOIS 12
    Rating: LEAN REPUBLICAN
    Incumbent: Rep. Mike Bost (R)
    District: Southwest Illinois, East St. Louis, Carbondale 
  • ILLINOIS 13 
    Rating: LEAN REPUBLICAN
    Incumbent: Rep. Rodney Davis (R) 
    District: Central Illinois, Champaign, Springfield 
  • IOWA 1
    Rating: LEAN DEMOCRAT
    Incumbent: Rep. Rod Blum (R)
    District: Northeast, Cedar Rapids, Dubuque 
  • KANSAS 3 
    Rating: LEAN DEMOCRAT 
    Incumbent: Rep. Kevin Yoder (R) 
    District: Greater Kansas City 
  • MICHIGAN 6
    Rating: LEAN REPUBLICAN
    Incumbent: Rep. Fred Upton (R)
    District: Southwest, Kalamazoo
  • MICHIGAN 11 
    Rating: LEAN DEMOCRAT 
    Incumbent: Rep. Dave Trott (R) (not seeking re-election)
    District: Detroit Suburbs, Livonia, Troy 
  • MINNESOTA 8 
    Rating: LEAN REPUBLICAN
    Incumbent: Rep. Rick Nolan (D) (not seeking re-election
    District: Northeast, Duluth 
  • NEW JERSEY 2
    Rating: LEAN DEMOCRAT
    Incumbent: Rep. Frank LoBiondo (R) (not seeking re-election
    District: South Jersey Shore, Atlantic City 
  • NEW JERSEY 11
    Rating: LEAN DEMOCRAT
    Incumbent: Rep. Rodney Frelinghuysen (R) (not seeking re-election
    District: North New Jersey, Morris County 
  • NEVADA 3
    Rating: LEAN DEMOCRAT
    Incumbent: Rep. Jacky Rosen (D) (not seeking re-election
    District: Las Vegas Suburbs, Henderson 
  • NEVADA 4
    Rating: LEAN DEMOCRAT
    Incumbent: Rep. Ruben Kihuen (D)
    District: Central, Las Vegas Suburbs
  • NEW YORK 11
    Rating: LEAN REPUBLICAN
    Incumbent: Rep. Dan Donovan (R) 
    District: Staten Island, South Brooklyn
  • NEW YORK 24
    Rating: LEAN REPUBLICAN
    Incumbent: Rep. John Katko (R)
    District: Central, Syracuse 
  • NORTH CAROLINA 13 
    Rating: LEAN REPUBLICAN
    Incumbent: Rep. Ted Budd (R) 
    District: Eastern, Raleigh Suburbs 
  • OHIO 12 
    Rating: LEAN REPUBLICAN
    Incumbent: Rep. Troy Balderson (R) 
    District: Columbus Suburbs, Mansfield 
  • PENNSYLVANIA 7 
    Rating: LEAN DEMOCRAT
    Incumbent: Rep. Charlie Dent (R) (not seeking re-election)
    District: Philadelphia Suburbs, Delaware County 
  • PENNSYLVANIA 8
    Rating: LEAN DEMOCRAT
    Incumbent: Rep. Matt Cartwright (D)
    District: Philadelphia Suburbs, Bucks County 
  • PENNSYLVANIA 10
    Rating: LEAN REPUBLICAN
    Incumbent: Rep. Scott Perry (R)
    District: Northeast, Williamsport 
  • TEXAS 23
    Rating: LEAN REPUBLICAN
    Incumbent: Rep. Will Hurd (R)
    District: Suburbs of San Antonio and El Paso 
  • VIRGINIA 10
    Rating: LEAN DEMOCRAT
    Incumbent: Rep. Barbara Comstock (R)
    District: Northern Virginia, Leesburg, McLean 
  • WASHINGTON 3
    Rating: LEAN REPUBLICAN
    Incumbent: Rep. Jaime Herrera Beutler (R)
    District: Southwest, Vancouver 
  • WASHINGTON 5
    Rating: LEAN REPUBLICAN
    Incumbent: Rep. Cathy McMorris Rodgers (R)
    District: Eastern, Spokane 
  • WEST VIRGINIA 3
    Rating: LEAN REPUBLICAN
    Incumbent: Rep. Evan Jenkins (R)
    District: Southern, Huntington    

Likely Democrat or Republican

  • ARIZONA 2
    Rating: LIKELY DEMOCRAT
    Incumbent: Rep. Martha McSally (R) (not seeking re-election
    District: Southeast Arizona, Tucson 
  • CALIFORNIA 49 
    Rating: LIKELY DEMOCRAT 
    Incumbent: Rep. Darrell Issa (R) (not seeking re-election)  
    District: San Diego County, San Clemente 
  • PENNSYLVANIA 5
    Rating: LIKELY DEMOCRAT
    Incumbent: Rep. Pat Meehan (R) (not seeking re-election
    District: North Central, State College 
  • PENNSYLVANIA 6
    Rating: LIKELY DEMOCRAT
    Incumbent: Rep. Ryan Costello (R) (not seeking re-election
    District: Southeast, Chester County 
  • PENNSYLVANIA 17
    Rating: LIKELY DEMOCRAT
    Incumbent: Rep. Keith Rothfus (R)
    District: Scranton, Wilkes-Barre

Latest Senate ratings

Last updated October 29, 2018 (jump to House ratings)

Toss Up Races

  • FLORIDA
    Rating: TOSS UP
    Incumbent: Sen. Bill Nelson (D) 
  • MISSOURI
    Rating: TOSS UP
    Incumbent: Sen. Claire McCaskill (D) 
  • NEVADA
    Rating: TOSS UP
    Incumbent: Sen. Dean Heller (R)  

Edge Democrat or Republican

  • ARIZONA
    Rating: EDGE DEMOCRAT
    Incumbent: Sen. Jeff Flake (R) (not seeking re-election
  • INDIANA 
    Rating: EDGE REPUBLICAN 
    Incumbent: Sen. Joe Donnelly (D) 
  • MONTANA
    Rating: EDGE DEMOCRAT
    Incumbent: Sen. Jon Tester (D) 
  • NORTH DAKOTA
    Rating: EDGE REPUBLICAN
    Incumbent: Sen. Heidi Heitkamp (D) 
  • WEST VIRGINIA
    Rating: EDGE DEMOCRAT
    Incumbent: Sen. Joe Manchin (D)  

Lean Democrat or Republican

  • MINNESOTA (SPECIAL)
    Rating: LEAN DEMOCRAT
    Incumbent: Sen. Tina Smith (D) 
  • OHIO
    Rating: LEAN DEMOCRAT
    Incumbent: Sen. Sherrod Brown (D) 
  • TENNESSEE
    Rating: LEAN REPUBLICAN
    Incumbent: Sen. Bob Corker (R) (not seeking re-election
  • TEXAS
    Rating: LEAN REPUBLICAN
    Incumbent: Sen. Ted Cruz (R)  

Likely Democrat or Republican

  • CALIFORNIA
    Rating: LIKELY DEMOCRAT
    Incumbent: Sen. Dianne Feinstein (D) 
  • CONNECTICUT
    Rating: LIKELY DEMOCRAT
    Incumbent: Sen. Chris Murphy (D) 
  • DELAWARE
    Rating: LIKELY DEMOCRAT
    Incumbent: Sen. Tom Carper (D) 
  • HAWAII
    Rating: LIKELY DEMOCRAT
    Incumbent: Sen. Mazie Hirono (D) 
  • MAINE
    Rating: LIKELY DEMOCRAT
    Incumbent: Sen. Angus King (D) 
  • MARYLAND
    Rating: LIKELY DEMOCRAT
    Incumbent: Sen. Ben Cardin (D) 
  • MASSACHUSETTS
    Rating: LIKELY DEMOCRAT
    Incumbent: Sen. Elizabeth Warren (D) 
  • MICHIGAN
    Rating: LIKELY DEMOCRAT
    Incumbent: Sen. Debbie Stabenow (D) 
  • MINNESOTA
    Rating: LIKELY DEMOCRAT
    Incumbent: Sen. Amy Klobuchar (D) 
  • MISSISSIPPI
    Rating: LIKELY REPUBLICAN
    Incumbent: Sen. Roger Wicker (R) 
  • MISSISSIPPI (SPECIAL)
    Rating: LIKELY REPUBLICAN
    Incumbent: Sen. Cindy Hyde-Smith (R) 
  • NEBRASKA
    Rating: LIKELY REPUBLICAN
    Incumbent: Sen. Deb Fischer (R) 
  • NEW JERSEY
    Rating: LIKELY DEMOCRAT
    Incumbent: Sen. Bob Menendez (D) 
  • NEW MEXICO
    Rating: LIKELY DEMOCRAT
    Incumbent: Sen. Martin Heinrich (D) 
  • NEW YORK
    Rating: LIKELY DEMOCRAT
    Incumbent: Sen. Kirsten Gillibrand (D) 
  • PENNSYLVANIA
    Rating: LIKELY DEMOCRAT
    Incumbent: Sen. Bob Casey (D) 
  • RHODE ISLAND
    Rating: LIKELY DEMOCRAT
    Incumbent: Sen. Sheldon Whitehouse (D) 
  • UTAH
    Rating: LIKELY REPUBLICAN
    Incumbent: Sen. Orrin Hatch (R) (not seeking re-election
  • VERMONT
    Rating: LIKELY DEMOCRAT
    Incumbent: Sen. Bernie Sanders (D) 
  • VIRGINIA
    Rating: LIKELY DEMOCRAT
    Incumbent: Sen. Tim Kaine (D) 
  • WASHINGTON
    Rating: LIKELY DEMOCRAT
    Incumbent: Sen. Maria Cantwell (D) 
  • WISCONSIN
    Rating: LIKELY DEMOCRAT
    Incumbent: Sen. Tammy Baldwin (D) 
  • WYOMING
    Rating: LIKELY REPUBLICAN
    Incumbent: Sen. John Barrasso (R)