Tropical Depression Two forms in Gulf, Tropical Storm Watch issued for Florida Panhandle

Tropical Depression Two has formed in the northeastern Gulf, prompting a Tropical Storm Watch for the Florida Panhandle as forecasters warn of flooding rain along the Gulf Coast through the week.

The National Hurricane Center says the depression had 30 mph winds Sunday morning and was centered about 150 miles south of Panama City, Florida, drifting slowly to the north-northwest. It is expected to strengthen into a tropical storm within the next day or two as it nears the Panhandle. This will likely become Tropical Storm Bertha.

A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for the Florida Panhandle, meaning tropical storm conditions are possible within the next 48 hours. Forecasters say interests in Alabama, Mississippi, Louisiana and Texas should also monitor the system, with additional watches possible over the next day or two.

The system is forecast to move slowly north-northwest into Monday night, bringing it close to the Florida Panhandle. After that, forecasters expect it to turn west or west-northwest, tracking near or along the northern Gulf Coast through the middle and latter part of the week. Confidence in the exact track remains low, largely because how far offshore the storm stays will determine how much it can strengthen.

Regardless of how strong the system gets, heavy rain is the primary threat. The Hurricane Center warns of flash flooding through Thursday along the eastern and central Gulf Coast, from western Florida into southern Alabama, Mississippi and Louisiana. Localized rainfall totals of 1 to 3 inches are possible where the heaviest bands set up, with higher amounts possible in areas that see repeated rounds of storms.

Gusty winds and rough surf are also expected to spread along the coast as the system approaches.

The Hurricane Center will continue reconnaissance flights into the system to refine the forecast as it develops.