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Al's 4th Quarter Economic Forecast

At the start of the 4th Economic Quarter, there are encouraging signs the U-S Recovery continues to see limited gains.

But there are also lingering signs some old problems are not going away soon enough.

Coral Gables Financial Planner Matt McGrath of Evensky & Katz worries" The 4th quarter is likely to get choppy as we get new information"

Consumer confidence is improving and fall shoppers are spending again, according to the latest retail sales figures and consumer surveys.

But full-time, good paying jobs are still hard to find. And that's holding back improved consumer spending.

The stalled labor market is expected to be a problem when the latest corporate profit reports come out.

Closer to home...we're just weeks away from the start of holiday hiring season...

It could be better than last year.

Our local Real Estate recovery looks like it's picking up new strength monthly.

And that's fueling demand for new construction projects.

The critical winter tourism season could see gains over last year..along with South Florida's Import-Export businesses.

Still, some local money managers worry more about Washington Politics clouding the 4th quarter, than the steady gains on Wall Street.

Add in the latest surveys about the impact of Congresses inability to decide on whether to extend so-called Bush-Era Tax Cuts for the middle class which can add more than $3000 to family's tax bills next year and you know why some money managers are worried about the 4th Quarter being dominated more by Washington, than Wall Street.

How's our critical Winter Tourist Season shaping up?

Here's what the Greater Miami Convention and Visitors Bureau is reporting:


Here's the Q4 Outlook by PKF Research:

Occupancy       75.4%               (+0.9%)

Room Rate        $165.51            (+6.2%)

Rev Par            $124.84            (+7.2%)

These increases are on top of record 2011 numbers.

In a GMCVB survey of member hotels, 82% indicate Overall Business Outlook for Q4 as Excellent - Good.

While we don't have cruise passenger Q4 outlook, it's important to note that PortMiami will welcome 5 ships (new to the port) in 6 weeks, starting with the Regent Seven Seas Cruises, Carnival Breeze and Oceania Riviera in November and Celebrity Reflection and Disney Wonder in December.

Ginny Gutierrez

Director Community Relations

Greater Miami Convention & Visitors Bureau

701 Brickell Avenue - Suite 2700

Miami, FL 33131



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