Tracking Beta: Current Forecast Keeps System As Tropical Storm As It Moves For Texas Coast
(CBSDFW.COM) - We start the last weekend of summer (the Fall Equinox is on Tuesday) with TROPICAL STORM WARNINGS and a HURRICANE WATCH in effect for a large swath of the Texas coastline, basically from Corpus Christi across into Louisiana:
Tropical Storm Beta hasn't moved much today and has struggled to keep its circulation this afternoon. It is forecast to start moving WNW overnight and gather some strength. The current forecast keeps the storm as a STRONG TROPICAL STORM as it moves for the Texas coast.
This was the forecast track issued this early evening by the National Hurricane Center in Miami. It shows the center of the circulation arriving early Tuesday morning at the coastline. Again, notice how wide the "cone of uncertainty" is (area in red). It shows the center of the storm could land anywhere between Corpus Christi and Houston.
As we've been saying for the last two days, when Beta starts to interact with land it will become difficult to predict. The latest run of forecast guidance models used by the NHC to predict a storms path show how most of the models agree on a early Tuesday landfall but greatly diverge after the storm starts to interact with land:
You can follow me on Twitter at @CBS11Jeffrey or on the CBS 11 Weather Facebook page to keep up with the latest forecasts. They are updated every three hours minimum by the NHC, usually just before the hours of 7 a.m., 10 a.m., 1 p.m., 4 p.m., 7 p.m., 10 p.m., 1 a.m., 4 a.m. in Central time.
Regardless of the path Beta ends up taking, tremendous rainfall amounts are expected, especially along the coastline. Some of that tropical moisture is expected here. We are currently forecasting a 40% to 50% chance of rain on Monday and Tuesday. Highs both days will likely only stay in the 70s.
