El-Sayed leads Rogers in exclusive Michigan Senate poll, but history says don't call it yet

Democrat Abdul El-Sayed appears to hold a narrow advantage over Republican Mike Rogers among likely voters in a hotly contested U.S. Senate race in Michigan that is closely watched nationally. 

That information is according to a poll whose results are exclusive to CBS Detroit and other select television stations. Mitchell Research & Communications conducted the statewide poll on Oct. 1 among likely voters in the November general election.  

Election Day is Nov. 3.  

Absentee voting began in Michigan on Sept. 24. When the poll was conducted, 11% of respondents said they had already cast their absentee ballots. Early in-person voting starts statewide on Oct. 24, although local clerks may begin early in-person voting on Oct. 5.  

The researchers said El-Sayed is the choice of 45.6% of likely voters, and Rogers is the choice of 41.4% of likely voters.  

This could remain a close race. 

"The race could tighten, perhaps dramatically," the research company said, sharing results of previous Michigan Senate races where Republicans picked up support during the last weeks of the campaign. 

The other party-sponsored candidates, Lydia Christensen (Libertarian), Walter P. Kristy (Natural Law), Timothy Long (U.S. Taxpayers) and Douglas P. Marsh (Green) all trail the leaders with 3% or less of the likely voters; while 6% of voters remain undecided. 

"If they vote, it's difficult to determine which candidate might get the most support from voters who are undecided on October 1st," the research company said. 

The survey has a margin of error of 3.8%, the research company said, with the 95%+ level of confidence. The political mix was 36% who identified as Democrat, 34% who identified as Republican and 30% who identified as independent. 

The open seat is the one currently held by Gary Peters, who announced in January 2025 that he would step down at the end of his current Senate term. Peters has since accepted a role co-leading a political center at the University of Southern California.