Wanted: Raindrops

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A very quiet and dry start to September across the Northeast. Source: Northeast Regional Climate Center

While the desert southwest turns into a temporary Florida, New England continues to dry out. Go figure. It's been a weird weather year across the country. The most notable thing of late around here though is the lack of rain. Spotty storms have struck here and there, some even bringing tornado warnings (and actual tornadoes). But outside of these isolated incidents, many communities are wondering where the rain has gone.

Now that being said, this can be a very dry time of year. The averages are influenced by the dry years like this one, combined with years when the tropics visit. Typically - if the tropics are dead and none of their influence heads our way, then the weather is going to be pretty dull mid-August through early October. And it'd be difficult to be more dead than this year's Atlantic season. Arthur made for some unusual early excitement, but other than that the impact has been minimal (eastern Pacific another story). North Atlantic ACE (Accumulated Cyclone Energy - good metric for measuring active vs. quiet years) is sitting at only 49% of normal.

Looking back over the past 30 days, some towns have picked up only 5% of their average rainfall! The driest conditions around are across SE Mass, Rhode Island, and southern CT. Barely a storm has made it to this part of the region in recent months. Fronts have been weak, bringing a wind shift and change of air but not any rain. A lot of the forcing has rounded the eastern trough of the jet stream to the north, across northern New England and New York State. The rain deficits are much less noticeable there.

Rain deficits running 4-8" over the past 90 days in the Boston area - southwestward. Source: NOAA

Looking back a little farther, 90 days, the same pattern emerges. And although it looks like SE Mass isn't quite as bad off...it's just one event that helped shape those figures. You notice that one strip in particular between New Bedford and Plymouth - that's where Hurricane Arthur dumped 4-8" of rain back on the 4th of July! Even with such a huge rain event, those communities are running behind. That tells you how quiet the rest of the recent months have been. The driest of the dry looks to be centered around the Mansfield area. In fact, several viewers from that town have emailed us asking what's up?! Lawns are brown and leaves are dropping. It's pretty striking to see the difference between there and southern New Hampshire. Goes to show you how different weather can be over a small distance here in New England.

The follow up question many have asked is - 'Will this impact the foliage season?' The answer is likely yes. Very dry weather leading up to/during foliage season can help increase and accelerate leaf drop. For far southern New England, we could be in for a lackluster show. For road trippers, fall color should still be in good shape. The mountains and valleys of northern New England have seen much more rain than we have here locally, and the upcoming cold shot with nights in the 20s should help push that process forward.

All moisture suppressed down toward the Gulf Coast now, and well into next week too. Source: WeatherBell

Any changes headed our way? The short answer is no. In fact, the 12z GFS run on Wednesday kept Boston *completely* dry through the next 16+ days! Not a single drop. Now that's probably going to end up being an extreme prediction and I'm sure at least a little rain will fall in that time, but there aren't many signs for anything significant. Major high pressure systems are expected to come down from Canada...a cold one at first (late this week, another next week) but a warm and dry one may set up for the end of the month. In any case, it appears high pressure will be a bigger story than low pressure, and that this September will be the 7th month of the year with below average precipitation in the Boston area.

Wednesday 12z GFS 'total precipitation' through 192 hours. You can easily see the storm track! All down toward the Gulf Coast and out to sea. If we had a pattern like this stay put into the winter, you could bet on a very cold and dry time. Source: WeatherBell