BLOG: Winter Is Back
After a damp start with showers, skies brightened Saturday afternoon and winds became a bit gusty as drier air returned in the wake of an "occluded front" (Won't call it a cold front, because temperatures actually were higher behind the front). Some peak winds included BWI: 30 mph. Temperatures were mild, peaking around 60 degrees (60 at BWI and 62 at the Inner Harbor).
As I write, higher and middle level clouds are streaming overhead as low pressure developing on a front stalled near the SE Seaboard was sending a shield of clouds and precip. northeastward. The radar is also showing an extensive area of rain streaking over and east of the region. However, much of the precip is evaporating before reaching the ground. One needs to travel about 80 miles into the rain shield before any of it is actually reaching the ground. Will be cooler today!
The aforementioned low developing on the front off the East Coast will track from near Virginia Beach early Sunday morning to east of Nova Scotia by later in the evening.
The consensus solution of models places the metro region on the western edge of the system's cloud shield … with the thickest cloud cover (and precip) east of the city and in the morning. Sun will then return in the afternoon. Keep in mind that a farther east or quicker track of the low would allow for more hours of sun Sunday afternoon.
All models keep precipitation southeast of the city, so the only concern for rain is over the southern Delmarva Peninsula, mainly just in the morning.
The other minor concern is a weak jet stream disturbance and associated surface trough that will move from the Great Lakes Monday morning to near the Mid-Atlantic Coast in the evening. This system will produce patchy clouds and I think some sprinkles or maybe even a flurry toward dusk Sunday and into the evening. A sprinkle or flurry could linger into the overnight.
