BALTIMORE (WJZ) -- As Maryland nears 100,000 total coronavirus cases, the number of cases in Baltimore continues to trend in the wrong direction, a doctor warned Friday.
The warning is based on a model released by the Children's Hospital of Philadelphia's PolicyLab, which shows Baltimore's cases will likely continue to rise over the next four weeks.
"Our forecast is based largely influenced on the rate of growth of your own cases," Dr. David Rubin, the PolicyLab's director, said. The model also takes into account poverty rates, population density, weather and positivity rates.
Based on the model, Rubin said the number of cases took off after July Fourth, which matches up with data released from the Maryland Department of Health. That data shows cases in Baltimore City and Baltimore County have essentially risen equally at a rate far outpacing the state's climb.
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Gov. Larry Hogan called addressing the issue "a delicate balance."
"We are concerned about the fall flu season and about potential spikes and we want to avoid the problems we're seeing in other states," he said.
Friday marks two weeks since the state's expanded mask order, but officials report there are still numerous issues with non-compliance.
Rubin said he wants to see better enforcement.
"It's putting businesses in very challenging situations. We're seeing some of that where employees have been threatened," he said.
In addition, limiting the size of gatherings and limits on people returning from vacations may help slow transmission.
"We have an opportunity and a window here to really start degrading case counts again, but we just really haven't seen it in the Baltimore City area," Rubin said.
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