MAJOR GARRETT:
00:02:48
Excellent summary, as always. Matt Gutman, thank you very, very much. CBS News National Security Analyst Aaron MacLean joins me now as I walk over to the touchscreen. That's why we started the show in the Conversation Corner. He also hosts the most excellent School of Warpodcast. You heard Matt Gutman talk about things in the Strait of Hormuz. Pick us up on that point and what things look like from your vantage point. Sure. Thank you so much, Major. Well, let's zoom in here to the Strait of Hormuz. Matt Gutman gave an excellent overview of the situation here. He used the expression it's like shooting fish in a barrel. At its narrowest point here, this is less than 30 miles from end to end in terms of the water space between the closest points. And as I understand it, it's even narrower because, for the vessels, they need to have enough water beneath them to traffic this, and that's even narrower than that 30 miles. That's right. It's actually two mile-wide lanes separated by a bit of water. Think of it as a narrow country road, in maritime terms. That's how I would put it. It's extremely restricted space. If you were to sail into there right now to attempt to escort ships, I think what you would see is a little bit like what Matt Gutman is suggesting. You would see a blizzard of incoming, a lot, and running pretty high risks that even a US naval vessel could get hit, which is why you see the US Navy holding off for now. It's possible there could be some kind of diplomatic resolution to the situation. I don't see the Iranians agreeing to that anytime soon. But it is also possible to pursue it through military means, and our military, if you talk to the folks in the Navy who do this for a living, they are confident that with enough time to degrade the stocks of mines, of boats, of drones before attempting an escort operation, they can get it done. And that would all be around here, I'm gathering? That's right, though it's interesting you ask that, Major. The truth is the Strait here is by far the most vulnerable point, but we've been here before. In 1987-88, President Reagan ordered an operation called Operation Earnest Will. I read about that. That's right. We had more restrained conventions and operations names in those days. Yes, we did. And that was during the Iran-Iraq War-- That's right. --when not all guns were pointed at this spot, necessarily. That's true. And, in fact, there were attacks up and down the Gulf at that time. And by the way, right now in 2026, we're seeing attacks further out, not just in the Strait. So you could imagine an Earnest Will-type escort operation beginning soon that would focus on the Strait but also look at threats further afield as traffic approaches the Strait. I mean, the Iranian Coast runs all up and down this terrain here, so it's all of concern. What about the rest of the battle space as we think about it in Iran? So you really see the American-Israel combined campaign absolutely hammering Iran. We're at just about the two-week mark now. Thousands of targets-- missile sites, defense industrial base, drones, drone production, regime targets, and so forth. The Iranians, in return-- because this is a war, and both sides get a vote. They are, in pure military terms, on the ropes for sure, but they have asymmetric means of fighting back. The chokepoint in the Strait of Hormuz is one of them. They also, I think to less effect, are continuing their campaign to strike Arab partner nations of the United States, strike Israel. I don't think that's having the strategic effect they hoped for. But the closure of the Strait of Hormuz, that's going to hit the price at the pump. That's something the administration's going to have to resolve, one way or the other. Less than 30 seconds, a third missile intercepted over Turkey. That is possibly perilous in terms of NATO. Yeah, we have some very important assets in Turkey, the United States. The United States has nuclear weapons stored in Turkey. Presumably, these missiles are on their way to which is the site of some important American capabilities. One or two or three incoming missiles, not the most dangerous threat to NATO forces in the region, and you see President Erdogan saying that it is his goal to keep Turkey out of this war. So for now, the conflict does seem to be contained within the region itself. But yes, potential forms of escalation like that always of concern.
