MATT GUTMAN:
00:02:18
It is very confused, and it is confusing. So the Straits of Hormuz are this choke point in the Persian Gulf, about 20-plus e miles wide. That is where Iran controls, basically, that area. But they don't actually have to fire at ships. They don't even necessarily need to sow mines through that area to have the intended effect that they're looking for, which is to sow enough fear in the shipping companies and in their insurers to basically cripple shipping, to stop all ships from going through there merely for the perception of threat. So what's happening is that the insurers are saying, hey, listen, it's too dangerous for you to even go through there. We're not going to insure your cargo. Or if we do insure your cargo, it's going to be at exorbitant rates, 10, 20 times what you're paying right now. That's why everybody is parked right there. And so Iran doesn't actually have to do anything. And they have said that they will not let a drop of oil pass through the Persian Gulf under their watch. But they don't actually have to take offensive action for them to be successful here. All they have to do is threaten it. And this is really putting the ball in the US's court. Are they going to escort those cargo tankers and those oil tankers through the straits? Or are they just going to wait this out and see if they can pound the Iranian regime into submission? Again, we are told, we are not going to see an unconditional surrender from the Iranian regime, at least not for a very long time, Major. Matt, while I have you, I want to talk about what's going on in Lebanon. It's not a direct theater of this war, meaning it wasn't opened up. But it has become a theater this war and a very deadly one. Deadly, indeed. Hundreds have been killed. Initially-- so Hezbollah is the main proxy, the crown jewel in the so-called Ring of Fire that Iran built around Israel over decades. They poured billions of dollars. They have intelligence assets there. This was their main protector. And they used Hezbollah as a foil. So every time that they would get in trouble with Israel or something would happen, they would have Hezbollah, which is in Lebanon, attack Israel. Israel essentially decimated Hezbollah in 2024. And then Hezbollah, again, in this war, started firing rockets and missiles towards Israel, some towards drones, towards Cyprus. And Israel, essentially, waged a significant campaign against them. And now what we are seeing is Israel ordering evacuation orders for about 700,000 Lebanese, telling them to get out of harm's way because they are in areas where Israel is bombing. And that is a humanitarian crisis that the UN is warning about right now. So it is a side theater of this war. But it is turning, Major, into a very large one. Matt Gutman, great stuff as always. I'm deeply appreciative. Thank you, sir.
