New forecast shifts 14 races toward Democrats

Democratic Socialists of America. She's a DSAer. Yeah, a big favorite to win the Democratic gubernatorial nomination. Because and in part because Mandela Barnes, trailing by a lot, dropped out today. Yeah and the quote, unquote, establishment, the sitting governor, Tony Evers, Democrat, endorsed David Crowley from Milwaukee to try to save this thing and nominate kind of a more--

No traction? Doesn't seem like it. No. I mean, it doesn't seem like he has any real name ID outside of Milwaukee. And in Wisconsin, the polling indicates young voters are active, energized, interested, and very much with this Democratic Socialists of America candidate, Francesca Hong. Yeah, it certainly seems that way. Primary electorates generally skew a little bit older, and so maybe there could be some shift here in the last 10 days. But she definitely seems like the favorite.

Tell me about Minnesota. So there's been a primary that's been going on for a long time for the open Democratic Senate seat there between Peggy Flanagan and Angie Craig, a sitting House member. Flanagan ran to Craig's left, and-- Peggy Flanagan is the lieutenant governor. That's right, yeah. And it seems she's probably favored, although that one really could go either way. Craig represents a kind of a swingy, Democratic-leaning House seat in the Twin Cities area. Flanagan is lieutenant governor. She hasn't really had to run in that sort of battleground race. National Republicans would prefer to run against Flanagan, although I think probably either Democrat would be favored in that race for November. And that's being vacated because Amy Klobuchar running for governor and the odds-on favorite. Well, and Tina Smith, the sitting senator, is retiring. So there actually could be another Senate opening in Minnesota-- Good point. Thank you for that. --if Klobuchar is elected governor.

And tell me about the House races. So there's a lot going on in the House. And it's interesting that even though we made a bunch of changes in favor of the Democrats today, our actually kind of top line in the House is really pretty close. It's 208 seats, at least, leaning to the Republicans, 207 of the Democrats, 20 toss-ups.

That's really close. Yeah, and our expectation is that the Democrats are favored in the House and that they probably would win most of the toss-ups, but the House map did get better for Republicans because of redistricting.

Because of redistricting, yeah. So I don't think it's crazy to suggest Republicans could hang on. But again, I do think Democrats are favored, and the changes today do kind of better reflect that. And when my audience hears likely lean, what does that mean? I think from our sort of parlance, likely means that we'd be pretty surprised if the person lost. And so we moved Jon Ossoff in Georgia, sitting senator, from lean Dem to likely Dem. That doesn't necessarily mean anything about what we think the margin is going to be because Georgia is a really tight, closely contested state. That race could still end up being relatively close. But I do think where that race sits today, it would be a shock if Ossoff lost, and that's part of what we're expressing. And that is reflective of fundraising, visibility, polling, and a lot of other factors? Yeah. It is a Democratic-leaning environment. It doesn't seem like the challenger, Republican Mike Collins, is really doing all that great. So a lot of things go into it. Right. Not always, Georgia, a Democrat environment, but it seems to be in this particular Senate race. Kyle Kondik, thank you so very--