Evaluating the state of Iran's nuclear program

And not Europe. --not even northern or central Europe. So do they have a capability? Yes. Do they have a program to develop longer range? Yes. But they've been doing this for 20 years. There's nothing imminent about any of this threat. Matt, when I read Politico Playbookthis morning listing the many quotes that have come from top administration officials, including off-the-record guidance that they are talking about not when to attack but the sequencing of attacks, "quote, "It all feels very 2003," meaning the lead up to the Iraq War and Iraq invasion. Does it feel 2003 to you? Well, I think there are some important differences. First of all, nobody's talking about a major military invasion, boots on the ground, 20-year occupation. All the options that are being considered are airstrikes. So it wouldn't be the kind of quagmire we saw in Iraq and Afghanistan. And I think the reason we're here is if people remember, there were these massive uprisings against the regime in January. President Trump did set a red line and say if the Iranian government kills its people, there will be consequences. He told the Iranian people, rise up and seize your institutions. Help is on the way. He couldn't act at the time because US military forces were elsewhere, including in the Western Hemisphere. So now he's repositioned, and I do think there would be consequences to him just backing down from that threat. So I think the question now is not so much, will the United States strike? I think we will. It's really a question of, what are the targets? Joe, do you agree with that? I think there's a 75% chance we're going to go. I mean, part of that is just the amount of force we've amassed in the region. This is an unprecedented buildup. I think it's even more than we had in 2003. What's striking to me-- And when you have a buildup like that, does there become an inevitability? There's inertia that comes with that. Everybody's ready to go. We have moved half of our available combat aircraft in the world to the Middle East. That is an enormous commitment. And so this is costing hundreds of millions of dollars. The people are being put on warning, ready to go. There's a certain inertia to that. And there's a commitment trap. Here's the president, how he's going to look if he backs down from his tough talk from red lines he previously drew. And the president also might want to distract attention from some of his domestic concerns. So going to war is a tried-and-true attempt to do that. The problem is that he might not be able to accomplish what he wants to do. Could he damage the programs? Absolutely. Could he assassinate large parts of the leadership? Absolutely. Could he overthrow the regime? No war in history that I can think of has actually overthrown a regime by air power alone. You've got to have boots on the ground if you want to do that, particularly with a country the size of Iraq, 90 million people, a vast area. This is why two things strike me. One, there's no real reason to go to war right now. We don't know what the objectives are. And most important, we haven't been having a debate about this. Unlike 2003, there's no month-long discussion building American support or allied support for going to war, zero, nada discussion about this, even in the State of the Union. Matt, I'm going to give you 30 seconds for the last word. Well, I think there is a reason. One, if you look back to late last year, there was a discussion about Iran reconstituting its missile program. The Israelis approached the United States about possibly restriking the missile program. Then you have this uprising and the president setting a red line. And so I do think the question is, is there some kind of large-scale attack that's meant to destabilize the regime? I agree with Joe. That's unlikely to work and would be costly. Or is it some more military limited action against the missile and nuclear program? which is what I'd expect. You've given us a tremendous amount of information. I appreciate it both. And it's the most we've ever agreed. [LAUGHTER] Thank you.

Thank you very much. Thank you. Thank you.