Update on Rain/Storm Event

At 18z (Noon) the NWS runs a shorter suite of forecast models based on the latest observation data. These serve as bridges between the main 12z and 00z runs ("z" stands for zulu or GMT time, in local time that is 6am and 6pm respectively). Our next rain event, as usual, has a range of model solutions. Here is the 18z runs of the GFS and the NAM, two of main forecast models we use. The NAM puts the heavy rain to our southeast, getting into Waco and Tyler. The GFS puts in dead center over the metroplex.

We have  two in-house forecast models and both look more like the GFS putting the rain event into the middle of north Texas. Both of them also make this more of a Tuesday morning through end-of-day event with the heaviest rain coming in the afternoon. The 12z run and 18z are bringing the rain in a little later than the ooz run yesterday. I'm still thinking that this event starts tomorrow night and goes through the night into the morning commute on Tuesday. We'll likely still have some rain going on at least until mid-day on Tuesday.  There will be a severe weather threat with this system starting late Monday into early Tuesday.