The Weather That We Know

This afternoon ample sunshine pushed temperatures well over 100 degrees in the metro, the high so far at DFW is 103°. Although three of the last 5 days stayed under 100 (Saturday's high a mere 89°- the coolest day since May) it appears that 5 of the next 5 days will go over that mark. It could be 7 of the last 7 in fact as the high pressure ridge builds right back in to deliver hot and dry weather that has plagued our summer. It's the weather that we know. The first 100 degree day of the year occurred 63 days ago, 78% (a tough C+) of the time since we've been over 100 in the afternoon.

Highs tomorrow are expected to be about the same if not a degree hotter. Storms chances (10%) are around just along the Red River by afternoon and early evening. The forecast map below tells the story: with high pressure overhead and frontal boundaries so far north our record heat and record drought continues.

With the 100 degree days continuing to pile up we are in reach to break a couple more records over the next seven days. As of today 2011 is 4th on the list for most 100 degrees in one year (49). By Friday we'll be 3rd on the list if the forecast holds. There is even a chance by next Wednesday we'll be second on the list. There is (fortunately) very little chance that we would get to the record of 69 days.

In some ways this provides a certain symmetry to it all: this years is second on the list for most consecutive days of 100 or above; it is very likely we'll end up second on the list for the MOST 100 degrees days. By just about every metric the summer of 2011 will go down as the hottest 3 months in 31 years. Not number one but ample bragging rights.

Long range models are converging on the idea of another rain event like last Saturday, this would happen Tuesday or Wednesday. Good to see the stubborn weather pattern getting pushed around a little as we draw closer to Labor Day. On average we only log one 100 degree day every September.