New polling on data centers shows how the issue could impact the midterms in Texas

With the midterm elections approaching, new polling data shows that data centers could play an important role in competitive elections this year.

A poll released by the Texas Politics Project at the University of Texas at Austin found that a majority of Texans oppose the construction of data centers in their communities. In a sample of 1,200 voters, 30% of respondents strongly or somewhat supported the construction of data centers in their community, while 57% strongly or somewhat opposed.

The poll also found that respondents are worried about the potential impact of data centers on their water supply, energy bills, environment and quality of life. However, they did feel data centers could have a positive impact on the economy locally, statewide and nationally.

Poll respondents also had a negative view of how state leaders and the Legislature have handled the issue of data centers, with 24% approval and 45% disapproval.

Texas Politics Project director Jim Henson spoke with Jack Fink for "Eye On Politics" this week about the results and what they could mean for November.

Their conversation below is lightly edited for clarity.

Jack Fink: Let's talk about data centers, because this has become a political buzzsaw, I think, and a flashpoint for the November election. It seems to have really mushroomed and blossomed, and you did a lot of polling on this, which I'm grateful for because we're all interested in it. So talk to me about what your takeaways were.

Jim Henson: There's a 30,000-foot takeaway, which I think we all are aware of by now. Anybody watching this is going to know that data centers have fallen out of favor. Somehow, what we've seen, I think, is the growth of what began as relatively localized discontent over the latest wave of construction of data centers has now metastasized into something much more broad.

In other words, a lot of people now have attitudes about data centers who are not being directly affected by their construction.

For the second poll in a row, when we ask people very directly, "In general, do you support or oppose the construction of a data center in your community?" which is an important part of that question, do you want it right there where you live, clear majorities have said no.

In the August poll, 30% supported the construction of a data center in their community, but 57% opposed it. That was pretty close to what we saw when we asked the same question in June.

What we're seeing now is that the issue has become, I think, a lightning rod, to add a metaphor to yours, for a lot of other things that are out there. It's tapping into discontent about the data centers themselves and their impacts on communities. It's tapping into discontent, or at least disquiet and discomfort, around AI. And it's tapping into, particularly in the way that Democrats and folks on the left are talking about it, an anti-corporate impulse, anti-corporate feelings.

So there's a lot that's congealing here when you just dangle the question of data centers in front of people.

Jack Fink: The question is, I think, is this going to change anybody's vote? I was looking at the rural areas, and this is where we've seen a lot of pushback. Just covering the race, when I really stepped back and took notice of this as a big issue was when Gov. Abbott was holding what I believe was a property tax relief rally in the Tyler area back on June 10. Before he even got into that, he started on data centers. This is where he really focused on data centers and that he didn't want data centers being built in rural Texas neighborhoods.

After that came out, that's when I took notice. I thought, OK, now they're feeling it, the Republicans are feeling it from the rural areas, and that's their firewall.

Jim Henson: I think this speaks to something we've discussed a little bit, and that is, if you start seeing signs of discontent in rural areas and you're a Republican incumbent running statewide, you might be able to sort of play on the math and think, well, because of negative partisanship, the chances of these Republican voters really deciding that they're going to switch horses and become Democrats, that's probably not going to happen very much.

You can probably afford to lose a few percent, a percent or two of that 20% of the electorate.

But we're in an election where Democrats already have the wind at their back and your assumed advantage is smaller. You're going to pay a lot more attention to this because, again, these increments of votes matter.

The thing I would also add to this is that one of the things that came out of this poll, because we did more drilling down, that I thought was interesting is that we've focused a lot on rural discontent. Part of that is simply because there's the data center issue. There's also the issue of the high-capacity power lines that has riled up a small but vocal number of rural residents. Even the Big Bend issue. We've got a range of these issues that keep drawing our attention to these rural voters and the potential problems that Republicans could have there.

But in terms of data centers, the other thing that I would look at is that the sentiment in the suburbs, where depending on how you want to count it, about 40% to 45% of the electorate is located, is about as negative as it is in the rural areas.

In some of the measures in this most recent poll, the negatives in the suburbs have gotten higher than the negatives in the rural areas. Now, some of that suburban negativity is simply because there are more Democrats there. But nonetheless, the fact that you have this negative sentiment about data centers becoming more widespread and getting more severe is potentially a bigger problem for Republicans than the rural areas, simply by virtue of the fact that you're talking about a much bigger share of the electorate.