Storms and the Holiday

Second day of July and today's weather very much like yesterday's; hot and breezy with just a few afternoon clouds around.

The subtle shift in the upper air pattern (a dome of high pressure has drifted west) puts us right back into the storm track heading into the holiday:

We'll spend the next three days trying our best to gauge the local impact on t-storm complexes forming over the central plains and moving toward us overnight. For the most part the activity will stay in Oklahoma and move into southern Arkansas and northern Louisiana. They'll skirt close enough to north Texas however to offer decent rain chances:

With all of these systems in their wake will be outflow boundaries and pools of cold air; areas where afternoon storms can bubble up in the daytime heating. We keep the best storm chances for Friday and then again Saturday morning. By Fourth of July evening most of this storm activity will have dissipated.