Risk of Severe Wx Late Today, Big Rain Tomorrow

Lots of weather to deal with for the second half of the weekend into Monday.

First off, there is going to be a risk of severe weather this late afternoon and evening along and SE of a frontal boundary that has stalled over north Texas. The greatest risk of severe weather will be in this warm air (80° plus temperatures) south and southeast of the front.  This includes a slight risk of tornadic activity; more likely there will be strong storms that can produce large hail and very prolonged heavy rain event. The worst of the hail/heavy rain threat will stretch along and NORTH of the front tonight; right now that means the Red River counties but the position of the front will have to closely monitored.

This frontal boundary is going to hang over our area for the next couple of days and this means a very big rain event for us is possible. While this is music to the ears of agricultural interests and water supply enthusiasts this could possible create an urban flooding threat by late Sunday into Monday. Looking at the QPF of our area for tonight through Monday it has been a long time we've seen such generous predictions of rain:

Rain Est. for Tonight/Sunday

Rain Est. For Late Sunday/Monday

So no shocker that there is a threat of severe weather for north Texas, this seems to come along with ever rain event of late. We have the risk of strong storms late today/tonight and also tomorrow along a Hillsboro to Paris line where the heavy rain should be training. But to go from severe drought to a flooding risk could catch many off guard, especially on a weekend day when we are out and about.

But perhaps the biggest shocker will come along through the course of the day Sunday as a brisk northeast wind brings cold air into at least half of our area.  A sharp contrast of temperatures will set up tomorrow along the frontal boundary; it'll be in the 80's down by Corsicana and Athens; it'll be in the 50's in Gainesville and Decatur. I'm expecting the DFW area to be only in the low 60's/upper 50's by afternoon tomorrow with cloudy skies and sometimes heavy rain. I'd go as far to say that if you had outdoor plans to welcome in May you should change those plans. It appears the heaviest rain will come mid-day to evening tomorrow along the frontal boundary on a SW to NE axis across DFW and east. Two inches of rain in some areas  possible in a set-up like this. Strong winds will blow along this sharp temperature contrast.

This rain should continue into Monday, not as heavy but with light rain, cloudy skies and a north wind I expect highs to flirt with a record. Highs could only reach into the upper 50's on Monday! The all time record minimum high for that date is 57°.  As skies clear out overnight into Tuesday morning we will get close to another record: the low is forecast to get to around 43°, the record is 41°.  The sun should break out on Tuesday and highs should reach to the low 70's.

So in summary: Severe threat this afternoon and evening. Severe threat tomorrow afternoon. Heavy rain and large hail along the northern tier counties tonight. Heavy rain tomorrow (eastern half) with much cooler temperatures. Cold and wet Monday with near record lows by Tuesday morning.