Frontal Watch: How Close Will It Get?

The holiday weekend ended with hazy, dry conditions as high pressure kept the storms to the east:

The same high pressure system will dominate the weather pattern over Texas tomorrow. We'll have slightly warmer weather to start the work week:

We are watching to our north as a cold front moves down the central plains. Severe weather will build ahead of it:

The question this time of year is always how far south does the front get? If it reaches into north Texas the forecast will be much different. Right now the thought is that tradition holds and front stalls over the Red River to our northwest and then hangs up as a stationary front over Oklahoma:

This weather pattern has traditionally produced copious rains along the stalled front. The potential for localized flooding is high from Tuesday to Thursday to our north in Oklahoma. This is one of the reasons frontal position is so important; if the front ends up closer to us some of our northern counties (or the Metro) could get this heavy rain:

After this rain chance the classic southern summer ridge moves over Texas to dry us out. This is when we get really hot around here. If it lingers into the start of next work week we could log our first 100° day of the year.