Will new super PAC money and messaging help Paxton blunt Talarico momentum in polls and win the Texas Senate race?

Days after the Republican National Committee's Midterm Convention in Dallas, the Senate Leadership Fund, tied to Senate Majority Leader John Thune, pledged to spend more than $51 million in tv ads for Senate candidate Ken Paxton. It comes as the Texas Attorney General has trailed Democrat James Talarico in the polls and as he lags far behind in fundraising. Before the convention, President Trump's super PAC, MAGA, Inc. pledged to spend $10 million in ads on Paxton's behalf. A super PAC supporting Paxton, Lone Star Liberty, says it spent nearly $17.5 million in tv ads for Paxton between Aug. 30 and Sept. 9, most of them attacking Talarico.

Matthew Wilson, a political science professor at Southern Methodist University, said he believes super PACs met during the Dallas convention to discuss the Paxton race. "This is too important a race for Republicans to let Paxton go down because he's underfunded," said Wilson. "Whether the money was going to come from President Trump's PAC, whether it was going to come from a few deep-pocketed Republican donors, whether it was going to come from the Republican Senate Leadership Fund, one way or another, I think the party decided they needed to get substantial resources into this race." The investments, he said, reflect how tight the race is between Paxton and Talarico. "They think that there's a real chance they could lose, but also because they believe there's a real chance they can win."

In the RealClearPolitics average of polls conducted between Aug. 24 and Sept. 14, Talarico leads by 2.9 percentage points, 47.9% to 45.0%. When asked if all the new money and ads for Paxton will help him blunt Talarico's lead in the polls and win in November, Wilson said, "There are really two keys to that. I think the most important thing is that Republicans need to bring their base voters home. Right now, what those polls show is that there are a small group of normal Republicans who say that they're going to vote for Talarico. Paxton has got to bring those numbers down." Attracting those Republicans to vote for Paxton, he said, would generate enthusiasm and turnout. "I do think that this additional money will be helpful to Paxton," said Wilson. 

Most of the new ads aired on Paxton's behalf criticize Talarico by showing his past statements about gender and God. The negative ads come as the State Representative from Austin is focusing his campaign on higher food and gas prices and affordability in general. Regarding the new super PACs ads on Paxton's behalf, Wilson said, "I think it is an important element of Republican strategy. Attitudes toward Ken Paxton are largely baked in. Ken Paxton's been a statewide officeholder for a long time. We know that he has faced various scandals and has some baggage that he brings to the table," said Wilson. "Talarico is less well-known. He's more of a blank slate in the eyes of Texas voters. That gives Republicans an opportunity to define him negatively, to bring to voters' attention some of his out-there stances from the past."

While President Trump and Vice President JD Vance pushed for Paxton multiple times during the RNC's convention at the American Airlines Center in Dallas, Talarico generated national attention as well. He sat for an interview on Jimmy Kimmel Live. Kimmel said because the FCC warned that the interview could not be broadcast, he aired it on the show's You Tube page, where it has received 12 million views as of September 18. During the interview, Talarico mocked Paxton for calling him "Low T Talarico" and criticized him for not agreeing to a debate. "Ken Paxton gets rich on the public's dime and then he refuses to answer basic questions about that corruption," Talarico said. "Literally, anytime someone asks him a hard question, he runs away." 

Texans have until Monday, October 5 to register to vote. Early voting begins Monday, October 19. Wilson said both candidates will have no problem spreading their message. "Talarico is going to have no shortage of money. He's raised an enormous amount nationwide. He will continue to raise small-dollar donations from around the country. Both of these candidates are going to have more than enough money to get their message out ahead of Election Day."

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