UC Davis Study identifies likely points of failure for CA infrastructure from El Niño flooding

High tide flooding is only going to get worse through December, so what parts of California have the highest risks? 

A new study released by UC Davis identified six of the most likely points of failure for California during El Niño flooding events this winter, from San Luis Obispo to Humboldt Bay. But it's important to note that these are just examples of the highest-risk areas and are not the only areas of risk. 

From south to north, the study found San Luis Obispo Creek near Avila Beach could experience flooding from both high tide and stormwater runoff. Pismo Beach may experience beach erosion and flooding next to Pismo Creek. 

Heading up to Moss Landing, roads all the way up to Highway 1, along with nearby marshes and fields, may flood. The Santa Cruz shoreline could see significant beach loss along with localized flooding and erosion next to the beach and San Lorenzo Creek. The worst impacts will come with approaching storms or southerly wind/wave direction. 

Closer to the Bay, San Francisco International Airport and stretches of US 101 near the airport are vulnerable when sea level rises 3'. With 2' of flooding, marshes in the South Bay and down to the San Jose community of Alviso are vulnerable. The Oakland International Airport, areas just east of the Bay Bridge toll booth, and parts of West Oakland will see flooding with over 3' of water level rise. 

An interactive sea-level rise map by the Adapting to Rising Tides program shows different flooding scenarios and what areas it would affect.

Farther north, US 101 through Corte Madera, along with nearby neighborhoods and marshes, are vulnerable, especially during a storm. San Rafael's Canal Area, along with Highway 37 near Novato Creek and near Tolay Creek Lagoon, are vulnerable to over 2' of sea level rise. But the biggest issue in the North Bay is the area immediately east of Petaluma River, west of Lakeville Highway and north of Highway 37, where nearby levees have a high chance of topping over. 

Stinson Beach beachfront, houses and local roads are all vulnerable to water elevations over 2 feet. Highway 1 near the Bolinas Lagoon is vulnerable to water elevations 3 feet or greater. 

Humboldt Bay's local roads, fields, marshes, and US 101 are all vulnerable to flooding starting at 2 feet of sea elevation and up. 

But again, these are just the most likely points of failure for infrastructure this winter. If you live less than 3' above sea level and live near water or take any of the low-lying highways as part of your daily commute, you are going to see flooding this winter. The worst flooding across the Bay will be in areas of former marsh that are now on landfill.