Deal struck to possibly transform Concord Naval Weapons Station into 12,000 homes

While other cities are planning new housing complexes, Concord is planning for a whole new city.  

If all goes to plan, the vast expanse of the old Concord Naval Weapons Station will someday be 12,000 new homes, a development about the size of the neighboring community of Pleasant Hill.  

"And for the first time, we have an agreement between the city, our master developer, and the Navy, over how much we're going to pay the Navy for the 2,400 acres we're going to develop on the former Concord Naval Weapons Station," said base reuse director Guy Bjerke.

That's what the city was approving at their meeting Tuesday night. And they're not getting any discounts. When the project is complete, the Navy's total cut from the profits will be a cool $628 million.

"It's roughly a $7 billion project, with costs of about 5 billion and potential profits of about 2 billion," said Bjerke. "So, it's not an inconsequential project. But it will take 30 years and a lot of hurdles to get to those numbers."

But numbers that big come with big hurdles as well. And that's reflected in how long it's taken to get anything started. The project was conceived in 2010, and so far, not a shovel of dirt has been turned.

And the huge development project isn't helping Concord in meeting the state's housing mandates. The housing element is based on an eight-year cycle, and nothing is expected to be built in time to qualify.  

"Every time somebody says it takes two years, I just kind of go, 'That means five.'  If it's five, it means 10,'" said Councilmember Laura Hoffmeister.

And she said she's learned not to be too locked into any one plan. The city thinks they can begin putting in roads, water, power, and sewer beginning in 2030, with the first buildings being constructed in 2033. But the first stage of development is being planned for the area next to the North Concord BART station. And there is nothing secure about BART's future at this point.

"One of the scenarios in BART's plan is to close the North Concord BART station. And we're planning for transit-oriented development, without transit — Maybe?" Hoffmeister said.

She said planning is difficult when the world is changing so quickly, "Your plans have to be somewhat flexible. I think that's important. Don't get in one rut, and say, 'This is it. This is going to be the commercial space right here.  And this is what we're thinking it's going to be.'  Because that may be not what's existing in 10 years."

Under the deal, master developer Brookfield Residential, the city, and the Navy would all become partners in the development, sharing in the profits. So, there is a reason for everyone wanting it to succeed. But there are still a thousand things that could stall or derail any progress. 

Concord homeowner Pat Kray lives next to the property and wishes it will never happen. But as she looked out her backyard at the quiet, open land, she said she wasn't holding her breath.

"It's just like, you just take it for granted that nothing's going to happen," she said. "Then they bring it back up like this. But you know one time they bring it back up, something's probably going to happen. You've got to pay attention to it.  Then, it'll go away or it won't."

It probably isn't going away. Now, that the price has been settled, they can begin trying to plan the details of the project. But while the land isn't going anywhere, the economic landscape is constantly shifting underfoot.