It's the final sprint to the Election Day finish line in the New Jersey governor's race. Democrat Rep. Mikie Sherrill and Republican Jack Ciattarelli have been making the last pitch to voters across the Garden State as Nov. 4 nears.

Micah Rasmussen, director of the Rebovich Institute for New Jersey Politics at Rider University, said the latest polling has shown a consistent edge for Sherrill, but one that's also been narrowing.

"I don't think the race is put away, I don't think the race is over. I think Ciattarelli has a shot here," Rasmussen said. "But there's no question, I think, that she's ahead at this point."

Still, with 14 days to go, Rasmussen says there's still plenty of time to swing the race in either direction.

One thing he said he's keeping an eye on is voter turnout, and specifically, who turns out. According to the latest, non-final, numbers from the New Jersey State Department, Democrats hold a more than 850,000 voter edge in registration. It's a wide gap, but one that's also narrowed in recent years. There are also more than 2.3 million registered Independents.

Still not all of those registered will vote. In the 2024 presidential election, 65% of registered voters cast ballots in New Jersey. But with no presidential or congressional races on the ballot in the 2021 gubernatorial race, that number sat at 40%.

The candidate who can energize their voters to cast ballots will have the edge, Rasmussen said.

"Will the urban vote come out for Sherrill? They came out in the presidential race. Will they come out in a non-presidential race?" Rasmussen said. "And that question can be asked of Republicans. Republicans came out for Trump. Will they come out when Trump is not on the ballot? That's really what it boils down to, is which side is going to be enthusiastic enough and fired up enough to get out and vote."

Rasmussen said both parties have reason to be enthusiastic about this off-year race. Republicans have been out of power in the state for eight years, since Gov. Phil Murphy won in 2017. And Democrats have rallied around President Trump's return to the White House.

Rasmussen also discussed what could play out in South Jersey, and specifically Atlantic, Cumberland and Gloucester counties, which have seen dramatic shifts in their vote over the last 8 years.

In the 2017 gubernatorial race, Murphy carried all three counties by double-digit margins as he swept to the governor's mansion by more than 14 points. But four years later, as Murphy took on Ciattarelli, all three counties flipped to back the Republican by double-digits, leading to more than 20-point swings in just four years. Murphy still went on to win the race in 2021, but this time by just over 3 points.

Rasmussen says Murphy's message the second time around didn't resonate with voters in South Jersey, calling the region his "Achilles heel." And Rasmussen is expecting things to be much closer in these counties this time around.

"I think South Jersey is really up for grabs, and that portends well for probably both of them, because they both have a shot. But I think that probably means it's not sewn up for either one of them at this point. The both could compete strongly, and will compete strongly, I think, in South Jersey," Rasmussen said.

The Rider professor said both candidates have campaigned hard in the area. He noted Ciattarelli has done well in these places in the past, and it's an area where he's well-known, as he's sought the governorship for more than a decade now.

"He's in Vineland for the same dinners and in Glassboro. And so he's really getting around the region," Rasmussen said.

He also credited the Sherrill campaign for its work in South Jersey. Rasmussen says the question for him is whether the Democratic nominee can separate herself from Murphy.

"Are people willing to take a look at her for her own, on her own merits?" he said. "And if they are, I don't think there's any reason to think she'll run as weakly as Murphy did four years ago."