Will Michigan Save Mitt Romney?

This story was written by CBSNews.com political reporter Brian Montopoli.

The former Massachusetts governor is in a must-win battle with John McCain and Mike Huckabee in today's Michigan primary, according to Republican strategist Dan Schnur.

"Think of Feb 5th, Super Tuesday, like the NCAA Final Four," says Schnur, in reference to the day on which more than 20 states will hold their primaries. "Each of the candidates has a must-win game they need to qualify to get there."

"McCain had New Hampshire, so he's in," he says. "Romney has Michigan, Huckabee has South Carolina, and [Rudy] Giuliani has Florida. Lose those games and they're done."

Huckabee won the Iowa caucuses, but is still perceived as needing a strong showing in South Carolina heading into the Feb. 5th contests.

Romney's strategy was to win early votes in Iowa and New Hampshire and build on the momentum that came from those victories. He finished a disappointing second-place in both states, however, and subsequently pulled television ads in South Carolina and Florida to focus on Michigan. It's the state where he was born and raised and where his father, George Romney, was a popular three-term governor.

Romney vows to continue his presidential bid even if he loses today, but some political observers believe anything other than a win would effectively mean the end of Romney's run.

"Even though he's got the financial resources to continue indefinitely, at a certain point it becomes a matter of plausibility - and a matter of pride," says Schnur.

Michigan leaders moved their primary up to January 15th in violation of Democratic and Republican Party rules. Though the state was punished for doing so - the Democratic National Committee stripped Michigan of all its delegates and made candidates pledge not to campaign there, while Republicans stripped the state of half its delegates - the gambit did succeed in forcing a focus on the state's struggling economy.

Michigan has the highest unemployment rate in the country, and in the past year it has lost more than 30,000 residents and 76,000 jobs. Many of these losses have come as a result of the struggles of an automobile industry that was long the state's economic backbone.

"If I am President, I will not rest until Michigan is back," Romney told the Detroit Economic Club Monday, according to prepared remarks of his speech released by the campaign. "Michigan can once again lead the world's automotive industry."

Michigan voters can be skeptical of such claims, according to Michigan-based political analyst Craig Ruff.

"There is such doom and gloom in Michigan after seven years of declines in employment every single year," he says. "There is a lot of anger about it. And there is a lot of anxiety about it. The public doesn't truly believe that there is relief on the horizon. The public does not believe in rosy predictions of a rosy future."

Romney and his campaign have tried to contrast what they characterize as Romney's optimism for Michigan's future with McCain's pessimism. "I've got to give you some straight talk: Some of the jobs that have left the state of Michigan are not coming back," McCain said last week in Grand Rapids. "They are not. And I am sorry to tell you that." McCain has said he will bring "new jobs" to Michigan.

Polls show Romney and McCain neck-and-neck in Michigan, with Huckabee about ten points behind.

"I think McCain resonates here because he's just telling Michigan voters what they already know - that the lions share of factory jobs are not coming back," says Ruff. "People have a healthy respect for that honesty. There is some segment of the public that would like to embrace Romney's optimism that these jobs can return, but there's probably a larger segment that realizes the heyday is over."

What might ultimately decide the election, however, is the particular nature of the Michigan primary. The state's voters can vote in either party's primary, and since the Democratic contest is essentially meaningless - Hillary Clinton is the only major Democratic candidate even on the ballot - Democrats and independents who want to have their say will be drawn the Republican contest. That could help McCain. (Though Democratic activist Markos Moulitsas is leading an online effort aimed at getting Michigan Democrats to vote for Romney in hopes of keeping Romney's campaign alive and prolonging the Republican race.)

"If McCain wins, he can thank Barack Obama and John Edwards for staying off the ballot, which allowed people to cross over and vote for him," says Ed Sarpolus, an independent pollster in Michigan. "Without the crossover vote, John McCain does not win."

Sarpolus says Huckabee is attracting young and religious voters - he calls the former Arkansas governor "the Barack Obama of Michigan." A surprise win in Michigan would be a boost for Huckabee, who has been on the air in the state with an ad in which he says "most Americans want their next president to remind them of the guy they work with, not the guy who laid them off." On Monday, Huckabee campaigned along with McCain and Romney at the North American International Auto Show in Detroit.

Romney, meanwhile, has been airing an ad stressing his Michigan roots. "I grew up in Michigan when Michigan was the pride of America," he says. "It breaks my heart to see us in a one-state recession."

Ruff suggests the candidate is smart to stress his ties to the state.

"If Mitt Romney was not born and raised here, if his father was not an extremely important political figure, I don't think he'd have a snowball's chance in hell of competing here," says Ruff.

But Romney does have a chance to win today, and in doing perhaps overcome the setbacks he experienced in Iowa and New Hampshire.

"If Romney wins, this race isn't in a much different place than it would have been if he had won Iowa," says Schnur. "If he loses, he's Steve Forbes with better hair."
By Brian Montopoli