Why McCain Was A Winner

CBS News Political Consultant Brian S. Krueger analyzes Sen. John's McCain's Super Tuesday victory in the GOP primaries.

Can a Republican candidate seriously hope to win the presidential nomination by winning on the strength of liberals, independents, infrequent church-goers and those dissatisfied with the Bush Administration? On Super Tuesday, John McCain proved the answer is yes, as long as you also find a way to split the Republican base with your chief rivals.

Republican primary voters generally held positive views of the Bush administration, according to CBS News exit polls of the Super Tuesday primaries. Sixty percent of primary voters felt positive toward the sitting president and they distributed their votes evenly between Mitt Romney and McCain. On the other hand, those 39 percent of primary voters who held negative views toward Bush strongly backed McCain. Among these dissatisfied voters, McCain boasted an 18 point lead over his next closest competitor --Mitt Romney.

The contest held nearly equal numbers of regular and infrequent church-goers. Fifty two percent of primary voters attend church at least weekly and they split their support between Romney and McCain with about 32 percent each. Huckabee also scored well with this church-going group with 29 percent support. Infrequent church-goers had a clear champion, giving McCain 47 percent of their vote.

Independents, who were allowed to vote in more than half of the Republican primary contests, comprised 21 percent of all voters on Super Tuesday. They gave McCain a 14 point edge over their second most popular choice, Romney. Republicans, of course the behemoth voting block, split their vote between McCain and Romney.

Ideology became a huge part of the campaign leading up to Super Tuesday and conservatives by far made up the largest share -63 percent- of primary voters. Yet, their influence was lower than many pundits expected because they did not overwhelming vote for one candidate. Romney took 38 percent, McCain 31 percent and Huckabee 24 percent of this key group.

Moderates and liberals, by contrast, voted as a solid block behind McCain, giving the Arizona senator over 50 percent of their votes. Neither Romney nor Huckabee captured more than 25 percent of these groups.

McCain won on most of the issues that Republican primary voters identified as most important. Thirty-nine percent of voters cited the economy as the top issue and McCain held an 11 point margin with those voters. McCain commanded a massive 30 point edge among the 1 in 5 voters who cited the war in Iraq as their key issue.

Only among the 23 percent of primary voters that said illegal immigration ranked as their most pressing issue did McCain's lose to his rivals. Romney won these voters by 17 points.

So McCain's formula for victory is clear: clean up with the marginal Republican groups like liberals and moderates and lose by only a few points with the Republican base.

A closer look at the exit polls reveals how McCain managed to cull these conservative voters despite Romney and other conservative opinion leaders' attacks on McCain as too liberal.

McCain did lose self-described conservatives who said that immigration or terrorism was the most important issue and tied Romney with those citing the economy. Only among the 17 percent of conservative voters who said Iraq was the most pressing concern did McCain win.

He overcame much of this issue disadvantage among conservatives through his personal qualities. Twenty-three percent of conservative voters said experience was the most important candidate characteristic and McCain won this group by 10 points over Romney. Eighteen percent said they wanted a candidate who says what he believes and McCain won these voters by a 12 point margin. Importantly, McCain won a massive 30 point victory among the seven percent of conservatives who sought a candidate who could beat the Democratic nominee in November.

In the Super Tuesday primaries, McCain won 9 of the 15 states, including the two mega-prizes California and New York. Yet, he did show some signs of weakness. Not surprisingly Romney won his "home" states of Utah and Massachusetts. Huckabee won his home state of Arkansas but also demonstrated regional appeal by winning Alabama, Georgia, and Tennessee. In these four states born again Christians dominated the ballot box by comprising 70 percent of total voters (compared to 34 percent in the other states) and Huckabee won this group by 18 points. Young voters (18-29) in these states loved Huckabee, giving him his greatest degree of support among any age group.

Looking ahead to November, these Huckabee numbers, along with his general difficulty appealing to conservatives may foreshadow trouble for McCain. McCain consistently lacked strong support among evangelicals, conservatives and young voters. He will need to find a way to court these important groups if he hopes to ride his Straight Talk Express to victory in November.

Brian S. Krueger is associate professor and director of graduate studies in the department of political science at the University of Rhode Island. He holds a Ph.D. in political science from the University of Notre Dame and has authored books and articles on survey research and political behavior.