Opinion

Who Are The Persuadable Voters?

By Bootie Cosgrove-Mather

July 28, 2004 / 10:25 AM EDT / CBS

Anthony Salvanto is with the CBS News Election and Survey Unit.

"Persuadable" voters are those who do not yet have a choice between John Kerry and George W. Bush, or who do have a choice but could still change their minds about it before November.

There are not many potentially persuadable voters in this election: only 7 percent say they haven't made a choice and only 2 in 10 of those who have a choice between Sen. Kerry and President Bush say they might change their mind.

Many of these voters are moderates who voted for Bush in 2000 and are uneasy about the President now - yet few of them feel they know much about John Kerry.

This group is very uneasy with the direction of the country and the Iraq war.

More of them say they voted for Mr. Bush than for Gore in 2000. Many did not vote at all last time around, but this year, almost all of them (nine in ten) say they will probably or definitely vote.

2000 VOTE
(Voters with no choice for president, or may still change mind)

Bush
42%
Gore
28%
Nader
2%
Did not vote
22%

SOURCE: Combined CBS News Polls May, June, July.

They don't feel they know much of anything about John Kerry - nearly three in four say this. His biggest task this week may be to introduce himself to these voters.

VIEWS OF JOHN KERRY
(Voters with no choice for president, or may still change mind)

Favorable
12%
Unfavorable
16%
Undecided/ Haven't/ heard enough
71%

SOURCE: Combined CBS News Polls May, June, July.

Like most other voters, 59 percent of the persuadables say the country is on the wrong track, and there is great concern about the war in Iraq. Like most voters, they give the president relatively low marks, especially on his handling of Iraq.

President Bush has an extremely low 28 percent approval on handling Iraq among the persuadables, compared with 37 percent among all voters over that same three-month time period. But like most voters, a small majority approves of the president's handling of the broader war on terror.

APPROVAL OF BUSH'S JOB PERFORMANCE

Overall
Persuadable voters
41%
All voters
44%

Handling economy
Persuadable voters
35%
All voters
40%

Handling terrorism
Persuadable voters
53%
All voters
52%

Handling Iraq
Persuadable voters
28%
All voters
37%

SOURCE: Combined CBS News Polls May, June, July.

These voters overwhelmingly do not think the war with Iraq was worth the costs - almost two-thirds say so. This is a more negative assessment of the war than among all voters over the three-month time period. By comparison, those firmly supporting John Kerry - the group that says their mind is made up about him - almost unanimously say the war was not worth it.

IRAQ WAR WAS…

Worth it
Persuadable voters
26%
All voters
34%

Not worth it
Persuadable voters
63%
All voters
60%

SOURCE: Combined CBS News Polls May, June, July.

These "persuadable" voters are moderate: 51 percent are moderate, 15 percent liberals and 30 percent conservative.

By Anthony Salvanto